Mercury wrote:mousetrap sex can't be ignored.
HA!
Mercury wrote:Even if you think some of the jumps in McDonald's traps are too big, he still provided 14 intermediates leading up to the modern snap mousetrap, which is 14 more than should exist if the final form is irreducibly complex.
It is quite an achievement. Not good enough to prove that a snap trap is reducible, but much better than I thought could be done. But he shouldn't be wasting his time on the mousetrap. You can only stretch the analogy so far (as your mousetrap sex comment pointed out so well)
And even if he eventually did succeed in proving a mousetrap was reducible, he wouldn't really have proven anything. At least *I* do not assume that 100% of structures that anyone identifies as IC are all actually IC. That kind of accuracy is almost NEVER true in ANY science. Proving the mousetrap was reducible would not prove the Flagellum was. Finding a counter example, even a real one within the cell, would certainly prove that that particular object could have evolved, but it wouldn't prove that all structures had. Which is also true in reverse. Proving that the Flagellum was IC and couldn't evolve, would NOT prove that no other structure had evolved.
One of ID's biggest weak points (And yes, I DO admit it has them) is that it doesn't have really good solid definitions for some of it's ideas yet. Irreversible Complexity being right at the top of that list. The idea is intuitive, but needs a more rigorous definition. That just proves that the science of ID is young and growing.
But it seems to me that the central question here still comes back to the falsifiability of ID and Naturalistic Evolution. ID CAN be falsified, for any particular structure, by proving that there WAS a gradual developmental path to that structures final form. Naturalistic Evolution should ALSO be falsifiable, for any particular structure, by proving there was NOT a gradual path to that structure.
McDonald has certainly made progress in the attempt to prove a mousetrap is reducible. I don't think he'll be able to fill in those final gaps, but then I didn't think he would be able to get as far as he has. So if he DOES surprise me and come up with a completely rational gradual path to the mousetrap, or much better yet, the Flagellum, I will concede that that structure is NOT IC and could have evolved completely naturlistically.
What evidence would the Naturalists accept that a structure was designed? Is there any evidence at all that would not be explained away as "An argument for Ignorance?" ID can be disproved by a positive result, thats much easier to achieve than the negative that Naturalistic Evolution requires.
In a nutshell, IS Naturalistic Evolution still falsifiable?
Betina wrote:P.S. Mercury, Pandora, Kilarin. Thanks for the great posts. I've learned a lot from those.
Thank you for being willing to listen!
Samuel Dravis wrote:The only sure thing is that ID is, in a practical sense, useless.
Why? It seems that you're working from the assumption that if we believe something was designed, we would quit studying it. Why? This is certainly not the attitude being taken by the scientist interested in ID. They are studying nature quite intensely looking for evidence of design. The Naturalist can simply dismiss the details about any structure with "It did evolve, so it MUST have evolved" (not that they all do), but the only way to prove something was designed is to understand it VERY well, down at the lowest level.
We already use the search for design in science every day. Cryptography, Forensics, and Archeology use it all the time. Why should biology be any different? Lets take a simple example. If a new airborne variety of ebola popped up and caused a devastating plague across america, you can bet that G. W. Bush would have biologists tearing through that gene sequence to determine if the plague had evolved naturally, or if it had been designed. USEFUL information there.
Which brings us to a more general application, if some micro biological structures were designed, and could not have evolved naturally, it will change the way we deal with diseases. Some things we should expect to pop up through mutations, other things we should expect to be impossible.
And finally, lets take the Arthur C. Clark theory to remove the religious implications that many find objectionable. If aliens took a hand in guiding the evolution of life on this planet, would you not think that finding proof of that was USEFUL information? It changes the whole way we view the universe, it changes lots of our basic assumptions. And far from stifling research, it would greatly increase research as more and more scientist attempted to learn everything they could about these aliens by studying the way they had tampered with us.
And to sum up, lets get out of the hypothetical and into reality. Behe's arguments about the Flagellum have spurred an INTENSE amount of research into that object, from both sides of the camp. I don't think that any rational person can deny that we know much more about the Flagellum and it's related structures now than we would have if Behe had never written his book and proposed his unusual theory.
Kilarin