Where's Society Heading, Tech Wise
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Phoenix Red
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Many many things are still done by manpower because it's strictly cheaper that way. For example, many factory jobs are along the lines of "sit here, watch this spool. If the thread gets too close to the edge, turn this knob and it will go back toward the middle". People literally sit supervising machinery, making very minor adjustments every 30 minutes at the most.
Doesn't it make sense to just incorporate this function into the machine doing the spinning? To you and me yes. But that costs more than paying a grunt to do the same thing. Insert your favorite conspiracy theory here, companies do care about protecting their market but they don't pay you in hopes you will buy their stuff.
These sorts of jobs are not dissappearing at a startling rate. When their dissappearance beings accelerating, the economy will let you know. This is coming though and schools need to wake up and start evolving.
The phenominon of cheap labour easing the burden of man more than artifical labour is a major stop in our "advancement" though. As long as 4 year olds in kenya will make basketballs and cross trainers for pennies a week, no one will buy the glorious inventions that would end that sort of labour, and while it might be exploiting it is work nonetheless and the kenyan 4 year olds would be even hungrier. Not that it's right.
Doesn't it make sense to just incorporate this function into the machine doing the spinning? To you and me yes. But that costs more than paying a grunt to do the same thing. Insert your favorite conspiracy theory here, companies do care about protecting their market but they don't pay you in hopes you will buy their stuff.
These sorts of jobs are not dissappearing at a startling rate. When their dissappearance beings accelerating, the economy will let you know. This is coming though and schools need to wake up and start evolving.
The phenominon of cheap labour easing the burden of man more than artifical labour is a major stop in our "advancement" though. As long as 4 year olds in kenya will make basketballs and cross trainers for pennies a week, no one will buy the glorious inventions that would end that sort of labour, and while it might be exploiting it is work nonetheless and the kenyan 4 year olds would be even hungrier. Not that it's right.
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WarAdvocat
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- Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL USA
Heh, Mobius plagarized the "singularity" bit he pulled.
IMHO, the world of tomorrow is going to be much like the world of today. The technology changes, but people don't. The "singularity" garbage is just that, garbage. Given the premises, we've already passed the singularity.
Honestly, how many of us even know how an internal combustion engine works? How about the deep mysteries of TCP/IP? Microprocessors? Refrigerators? Yet somehow we use them EVERY SINGLE DAY...
I do think there will be some big changes too...The past century has seen many technology changes with far reaching effects, from Automobiles to Telephones & Televisions to Microprocessors & Personal computers. In the 90's it was the internet (although many of us already had lived an 'information lifestyle' since the early 80's (or even prior to that), it went mainstream in the 90's). It was impossible to predict exactly what the consequences would be to our society until we were in the midst of the information revolution...just as it will be for the next 'big thing.'
What will it be for the decades to come? It's tough to say. Improved virtual reality technology? Improved transport technology? New frontiers in biotech or AI? And how will this affect our day-to-day lives? It's impossible to say, although the speculation is fun! There's a whole body of literature devoted to speculating about the near future. Check out your local Science Fiction bookshelf. Mobius has
A suggestion for an interesting "near-future" scenario: "Mother of Storms" by John Barnes. Awesome reading, vivid imagery, wrapped around a not-very-implausable disaster scenario.
IMHO, the world of tomorrow is going to be much like the world of today. The technology changes, but people don't. The "singularity" garbage is just that, garbage. Given the premises, we've already passed the singularity.
Honestly, how many of us even know how an internal combustion engine works? How about the deep mysteries of TCP/IP? Microprocessors? Refrigerators? Yet somehow we use them EVERY SINGLE DAY...
I do think there will be some big changes too...The past century has seen many technology changes with far reaching effects, from Automobiles to Telephones & Televisions to Microprocessors & Personal computers. In the 90's it was the internet (although many of us already had lived an 'information lifestyle' since the early 80's (or even prior to that), it went mainstream in the 90's). It was impossible to predict exactly what the consequences would be to our society until we were in the midst of the information revolution...just as it will be for the next 'big thing.'
What will it be for the decades to come? It's tough to say. Improved virtual reality technology? Improved transport technology? New frontiers in biotech or AI? And how will this affect our day-to-day lives? It's impossible to say, although the speculation is fun! There's a whole body of literature devoted to speculating about the near future. Check out your local Science Fiction bookshelf. Mobius has
A suggestion for an interesting "near-future" scenario: "Mother of Storms" by John Barnes. Awesome reading, vivid imagery, wrapped around a not-very-implausable disaster scenario.
you are mixing "singularity" with "professionalism"WarAdvocat wrote:Heh, Mobius plagarized the "singularity" bit he pulled.
IMHO, the world of tomorrow is going to be much like the world of today. The technology changes, but people don't. The "singularity" garbage is just that, garbage. Given the premises, we've already passed the singularity.
Honestly, how many of us even know how an internal combustion engine works? How about the deep mysteries of TCP/IP? Microprocessors? Refrigerators? Yet somehow we use them EVERY SINGLE DAY...
...
we've nigh always had professionals, dedicating themselves to concentrating on and developing only one field. so that the rest of us don't have to worry or think about it.
singularity is when we have developed a seperate form of CONSCIOUSNESS that thinks so abstractly and powerfully, that no-one but other equally "developed" singularitys can grasp their developments. it's the point where humans can understand NOTHING of new technology, we'd be so far behind, and even if we tried we couldnt' catch up because the technolgy will be moving forward faster than we can keep up, as we may try.
that's what singularity is. when the humans loose control and are left behind, our competence in all respects being infinitely surpassed, we become relatively useless.
Going by the track record of the last few 'big things', the next one will be based on a technology that already exists, but for which no-one has thought of the possibilities for yet.
I mean, in the 1970s the idea of playing 3D simulators over a telephone line with people all over the world would be outlandish, but the technology - computers, telephone lines, modems and the Internet - did exist.
Now I do have something to say about this 'singularity'. As long as humans, and not robots, are running the show, I don't think it'll ever happen; in a similar way to how decaying uranium never reaches a negative mass, I would guess we would approach that point but never actually get there.
The reason being that, if technology is advancing so fast no-one can keep up, then how does it advance at all? The inventors inventing stuff before they understand it?
I would guess that if we passed a singularity, progress would slow down so that people could get their bearings and see where to go... dragging us back before the singularity again.
Because of that... I would see us getting quite close to that point but not actually getting there. And if it is what you say it is, 2050 is far too soon for that. It isn't even a problem to keep up with the general trends in technology today.
I mean, in the 1970s the idea of playing 3D simulators over a telephone line with people all over the world would be outlandish, but the technology - computers, telephone lines, modems and the Internet - did exist.
Now I do have something to say about this 'singularity'. As long as humans, and not robots, are running the show, I don't think it'll ever happen; in a similar way to how decaying uranium never reaches a negative mass, I would guess we would approach that point but never actually get there.
The reason being that, if technology is advancing so fast no-one can keep up, then how does it advance at all? The inventors inventing stuff before they understand it?
I would guess that if we passed a singularity, progress would slow down so that people could get their bearings and see where to go... dragging us back before the singularity again.
Because of that... I would see us getting quite close to that point but not actually getting there. And if it is what you say it is, 2050 is far too soon for that. It isn't even a problem to keep up with the general trends in technology today.
Screw that. I'm going to be an "anomily" in an "equation" that "kicks ass" whenever two over ambitious goth writers decided to ditch their story budget for more rendering power.Top Gun wrote:Think about it this way: if we screw up, we have nice, long, oblivious lives to look forward to in a giant computer-simulated world while our bodies are used for energy.