callmeslick wrote:LEON wrote:When Columbus arrived at the shore of The New World, there was 1 - 2 million Indians in North America. Today there's 350 million people in North America. However, if one could increase the population of Indians from 2 millions to 350, and everything else stays equal, i.e. same economy and technology, then whole North America would turn into a desert, i.e. an ecological catastrophe. But as economy and technology changes so do the foundation for population as well, thus there can be 350 million people in North America today. People make the same mistake and fallacy today, when they try to look, from here, and into the future.
of course, there were developments around progress(and despite your assumptions, there is no reason to expect that the Native Americans would have avoided all progress. Nor is there any reason to assume as you do that they would have turned it into a desert.
By that definition (talking about broad definition) every population can be an overpopulation. Resources are scarce and we compete to get em. Please don't use trade-offs as arguments. You fall into the nirvana fallacy. Besides, point was how a population peaks as the economy increase.
that was but YOUR point, and I suggest it is irrelevant if the topic(which was the topic) is the ultimate threat of overpopulation.
Last, you have still not understood economics, and especially price mechanism and the role that have on incentives and allocation of scarce resources which have alternative uses.
likely true, but the discussion was around OVERPOPULATION threats, which require knowledge of biology to understand in any way. Whether I understand economics is about as germane to that discussion as whether I understand Etruscan pottery making.
(Your quote in green, mine in red)
Do you have no understanding slick?
"(...)there is no reason to expect that the Native Americans would have avoided all progress (...)" What on earth does that got to do with anything I wrote?!
You might wanna read this;
"if one could increase the population of Indians from 2 millions to 350, and everything else stays equal, i.e. same economy and technology" (
Everything else stays equal. Do you remember? -
Ceteris Parabus.) Then the pressure on Americas resources would be too great. I didn't make any statement about Indians and what they might or might not have done in reality.
Point is! Your first question in this discussion;
"so, in your mind, the Earth can support how many people?" A question which I said is irrelevant, which is shown in my North American Indian population analogy. Your question is like;
How many people can North America support? 2 millions or 350 millions? Back then it could support 2 millions, today it can support 350 millions.
It all depends on many things, thus the question is irrelevant. In the future America might support a population of 700 millions.
It is amazing that I need to explain and clarify all this.
Can you stop treat analogies as concretes. You even say yourselves -
progress. Yes, can you please extend that thought to our present day as well, or, is it like progress is at complete halt?
You wrote;
"that was but YOUR point, and I suggest it is irrelevant if the topic(which was the topic) is the ultimate threat of overpopulation." The fact that economic development halt population growth is irrelevant to the topic of overpopulation??!!! Really? I don't know what to say.
Overpopulation is a question about economics. Whether we run short on resources, or population grows and make resources more scarce, is the same mechanics. Have you already forgot my
water in the desert analogy? The fact that we need water is biology, yes. However, whether we have water or not, is a question of economy. Reason we have economics is because resources are scarce. If there were no scarcity, economics wouldn't be necessary. We must economize the water supply in a desert, because it's scarce. We doesn't need to economize on air, because air is of abundance supply
Like couple of years ago, we had butter shortage here in Norway. The government said it was because of increased demand for butter due to low carbo diet, and because of last summers rain, which gave a lower quality on the milk fat. Both are wrong. We had shortage because the price of butter is fixed. As we ran short, no price signals gave us any information on the shortages. A increased price had led to two things; lower consumption and higher production, then the shortages had been prevented.
This story from reality is illustrative, and funny:
When a Spanish blockade in the sixteenth century tried to starve Spain's rebellious subjects in Antwerp into surrender, the resulting high prices of food within Antwerp caused others to smuggle food into the city, even through the blockade, enabling the inhabitants to continue to hold out. However, the authorities within Antwerp decided to solve the problem of high food prices by laws fixing the maximum price to be allowed to be charged for given food items and providing severe penalties for anyone violating those laws. There followed the classic consequences of price control--a larger consumption of the artificially lower-priced goods and a reduction in the supply of such goods, since suppliers were less willing to run the risk of sending food through the Spanish blockade without the additional incentive of higher prices. Therefore, the net effect of price control was that "the city lived in high spirits until all at once provisions gave out" and Antwerp had no choice but to surrender to the Spaniards.
Point is, as a population grows so will demand for food, and as the price increase more resources will be diverted from less valuable uses and into food production. For instance, if demand for food and food prices increase, then, for instance a cotton farmer, is incentivized to change his production from cotton to wheat, or what ever. All he sees is that cotton prices goes down, and wheat prices goes up, his motivation is just that he wanna make more money. Whether we divert golf fields or cut down more woods doesn't matter, point is how resources are allocated through price mechanism.
Higher prices will also encourages technological development - more efficient ways to produce food, i.e. better machinery, crops that need less water, less sun light, more resistant against weather; temperature; insects, gives more seed per plant, etc, etc. Which again will require less land.
We don't kill eagles, we actually protect them. On the other hand, we kill more chicken than anything else - still, eagles are few and chickens are many.
Humans means of survival is his mind and consciousness, unless we are losing that faculty there's no problems. I friend of mine once claimed;
if every person in India owned a bed and a chair each, there wouldn't be one tree left in whole India. As a contrast to all the things we have. What he failed to understand is economics. If India starts to run short on trees, the price on trees would increase.
Imagine if there was only one tree left, that tree would be so expensive and valuable that no one could afford it. But long before that happens, forest owners would start to replant trees, only cut down older trees, and make sure there's enough trees left for further consumption. All incetivized by price mechanics. That's why we don't run short on chickens in the above example as well.
However, if the forest is collectively owned, then everybody will cut down trees to themselves and nobody have incentives to replant, thus there will be a tree shortages. As what happened on Easter Islands. At least according to their theory. This is, in short,
The Tragedy of the Commons.
Last; callmeslick, make an argument. Don't just say
this has nothing to do with economics, and no explanation. If you don't understand economics, how can you make such a claim? We're at the same point where we were last time,
theory vs complex reality. You cannot just claim that and expect that to be an argument. That would be like if I refute your claim about biology, and nothing else.
I claim it's economy, you say no, it's about biology. Then we can continue like that forever. Is that a discussion?
Economics is a real thing, it's derived from scarcity, and is governed by natural laws. If we have price volatility and the government force that price to be stable, then the effect will leak out in either too many goods, which is wasteful, or a shortage on goods, which gives us long waiting lines. We cannot escape the laws of economics.