Interesting commentary and analysis on "The Letter"

Sarge · Post by **Sarge** » Thu Oct 13, 2005 8:59 am

[quote]Al-Zawahiri admits that the Shia brand of Islam is â??based on excess and falsehood,â?

roid · Post by **roid** » Thu Oct 13, 2005 7:15 pm

hmm... American admin seems rather eager for this to be public. Are they perhaps repositioning themselves to now NEVER leave Iraq?

because the opening paragraph to the article reads:

AL-QAEDAâ??S second-in-command has ordered the groupâ??s leader in Iraq to prepare a campaign of violence across the Middle East to establish an Islamist superstate when America leaves Iraq.

woodchip · Post by **woodchip** » Thu Oct 13, 2005 7:34 pm

I suspect Roid, that like our prescence in Germany, we'll have bases in Iraq for a long time. If the Iraqi population starts thinking right, they'll learn that american military troops spend big money if given a chance.

Ferno · Post by **Ferno** » Thu Oct 13, 2005 7:57 pm

I don't believe it.

Iceman · Post by **Iceman** » Thu Oct 13, 2005 9:09 pm

You don't believe what Fernie?

woodchip · Post by **woodchip** » Fri Oct 14, 2005 4:38 am

He doesn't believe I'm right.

Testiculese · Post by **Testiculese** » Fri Oct 14, 2005 6:31 am

Of course not, Roid, I said this before the war started: We'll spend years and years in that country.

woodchip · Post by **woodchip** » Fri Oct 14, 2005 8:31 am

Testiculese wrote:Of course not, Roid, I said this before the war started: We'll spend years and years in that country.

And our boys will be bringing back Iraqi brides by the boatload.

Sarge · Post by **Sarge** » Fri Oct 14, 2005 8:41 am

Of course, now we have this....

Al Qaeda in Iraq said Thursday a letter purportedly from Osama bin Laden's top lieutenant to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is a fake, according to a statement on several Islamist Web sites.

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/10/ ... index.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4339912.stm

Ferno · Post by **Ferno** » Fri Oct 14, 2005 1:36 pm

Ice, woody.. I don't believe the timesonline story one bit.

If i wanted to be extremely specific.. i'd take up programming.

roid · Post by **roid** » Fri Oct 14, 2005 8:29 pm

Testiculese wrote:Of course not, Roid, I said this before the war started: We'll spend years and years in that country.

From what woodchip indicates with the Germany illustration, we're talking DECADES here.

Ok, The Issues are as such:

America really wanted to get into Iraq, they would say anything and do anything, we know this now coz we know (yesyes, i admit it's arguable how INTENTIONAL this was) all the WOD evidence was false.

They were so eager/desperate to get into Iraq that they wern't thinking ahead. i personally think the USA military are a bunch of idiots if they didn't honestly consider the possability that this would not be a quick war - maybe they simply fell for the common mistake of believing their own marketing

.

So... everyone (well, at least most American citizens and a heap of other Country's Leaders - "Coalition of the Willing"(tm)) was under the impression that this would be a straight-forward war and be over pretty quick.

Well we all know the hiccups that happened along the way, those being (1) no WMD and (2) every fanatical enemy of America who was pissed from being dissed at America's recent private partys (wars) would now gatecrash America's latest private party - IRAQ - and try to start something.

Personally i think the American warmachine would have to be ★■◆●ing stupid to have not predicted this - so perhaps some conspiracy theorys have merit. But then again, i guess none of the "Coalition of the Willing"(tm) gave it much thought either. I imagine they just kinda thought "America Akbar!" and kinda therefore thought no fuckups could possibly come from all of this. *sigh*
marketing is a hell of a drug.

anyway, the American military and administration knows that it needs a hell of a lot more time to clean up this mess. It took them a while to admit they fucked up, but iirc they eventually did.
However i'm not sure if they have entirely made it clear what needs to be done to clean this up. The official rhetoric has been things like "we need to stay until the deed is done... we can't just cut and run" and things of this nature. While the media knows that what the public wants is a solid course of action and a part of that is obviously a proper timeframe. You don't plan military operations with timescales of "until it's done", and i'm therefore personally offended when a National Leader gives me such a "written for idiots" reply.

The possible "behind the scenes" actions i therefore guage from this reply are as such:

(a) the military and administration are incompetent. the replys are "written for idiots" because they are also written BY idiots.

(b) the military and administration are trying to avoid having the whole solid fact cake in the public-mind. Because this would involve the public acknowledging to themselves all of the ★■◆● ups.
this is "psychology magic", it'l take a long time to explain. In such a talk i would make points about nationalism and how like a lot of religions it encourages people to suspend their disbelief, rely on their faith, and fear... stuff. I would conclude such a talk with the major point that if you let the whole convincing truth cake perculate in the collective public mind for long enough - people start to wake up, it undermines the common religious/nationalistic mindset in america that "America is infalible, our leaders are gods, we can do no wrong - if we do wrong then WRONG IS THE NEW STANDARD (:lol:)", and the undermining of this mindset encourages people to wake up, think properly, care about issues, and be informed and educated voters.

anyway where was i...
oh yeah. The military/administration knows the public isn't sure and definite about how long this war is going to take, so they are playing with that - kindof living on borrowed time as the public remains mostly stunned/confused. The military/admin is not telling the public the whole story because of the above paragraph. What the administration wants desperately is a way to break it to the public that they are going to stay in Iraq for a LONG LONG time, but while keeping it's nose clean in the process.
Because we all know that by making sure people know we are going to be in Iraq for decades - people must also understand how "we totally fucked up to the extent that we probably honestly deserve to goto jail for what we've done". Which is probabaly what the public will demand if the truth suddenly hit them all at once like a hard brick.

sooo... The Letter and America's response to it is one neat way to help break the news in softly, and avoid linch mobs. Because "if we leave Iraq, it will be taken over by our enemys, so we ethically have to stay here for a long time. go us."

and they come out smelling like a rose.

phew maybe i should have made that a new thread.