Do you agree that your sources did not represent these points accurately? I would like to get some closure on these issues before we go on arguing in circles.e.g., claim: NASA drops inconvenient stations to inflate the warming. truth: he station data has not come in yet, and the missing stations actually show a bigger warming trend than the ones that have come in.
e.g., claim: Trenberth is saying the warming has stopped. Truth: he has saying we need a better system that also includes ocean warming to detect it on shorter time scales.
e.g., claim: Jones admits warming has stopped. Truth: he says we cannot detect it reliably on short time scales (15 years), but that it is close to significance even on short time scales.
In the End
Moderators: Tunnelcat, Jeff250
Woody, you are dodging. I would like an acknowledgemet to these three points:
Re:
First e.g.Pandora wrote:Woody, you are dodging. I would like an acknowledgemet to these three points:
Do you agree that your sources did not represent these points accurately? I would like to get some closure on these issues before we go on arguing in circles.e.g., claim: NASA drops inconvenient stations to inflate the warming. truth: he station data has not come in yet, and the missing stations actually show a bigger warming trend than the ones that have come in.
e.g., claim: Trenberth is saying the warming has stopped. Truth: he has saying we need a better system that also includes ocean warming to detect it on shorter time scales.
e.g., claim: Jones admits warming has stopped. Truth: he says we cannot detect it reliably on short time scales (15 years), but that it is close to significance even on short time scales.
How accurate this is I don't really know, then again how would anyone know if stations have been eliminated and for what reason if the governing body is hiding it. Besides which the thrust of this discussion revolves around who or what is causing global warming and your example is merely ancillary to topic at hand
Second e.g:
As I have pointed out all along, climate science is incomplete as items are missing and I certainly agree the data we do have is over a abysmally short period of time to reflect any hard forecasting let alone as a policy making tool
Third e.g.
Pretty much the same as I answered in your second e.g. Difference here is you have a scientist saying "close to significance" somehow should equate to "significant". Let me know when the the significant threshold is reached so we can then discuss it in a meaning and worth while manner.
Now that I've answered your questions, answer my questions I posted with the graph so we can have a more fulfilling discussion.
-
Kilarin
- DBB Fleet Admiral
- Posts: 2403
- Joined: Wed Aug 07, 2002 2:01 am
- Location: South of Ft. Worth Texas
I'm on the fence about Global Warming.
BUT, this article is disturbing:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2010/ ... ate-change
It's one lone guy, not a powerful political movement. He will likely be ignored. But still, a disturbing idea.
BUT, this article is disturbing:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2010/ ... ate-change
It's one lone guy, not a powerful political movement. He will likely be ignored. But still, a disturbing idea.
Funny how a guy that has a theory that the earth is a self regulating system, is worried about climate change.
If he was true to his nature, he might instead point out how we will gain thousands of acres of arable land in the north, to counter the loss of land at the shores, or how Russia might become the new bread basket, to counter any “dust bowl” Etc, etc.
The usurpation of science by politics has to be the biggest tragedy of the modern era.
Adapt and survive.
If he was true to his nature, he might instead point out how we will gain thousands of acres of arable land in the north, to counter the loss of land at the shores, or how Russia might become the new bread basket, to counter any “dust bowl” Etc, etc.
The usurpation of science by politics has to be the biggest tragedy of the modern era.
Adapt and survive.
Perhaps now it is being revealed just what the \"tricks\" were that Phil Jones was talking about in the now infamous emails:
\"Professor David Hand, president of the Royal Statistical Society, said that a graph shaped like an ice hockey stick that has been used to represent the recent rise in global temperatures had been compiled using “inappropriate” methods.\"
\"Although Wednesday’s report – commissioned by UEA with advice from the Royal Society, the UK’s prestigious national science academy – exonerated the unit’s scientists, it criticised climate experts for failures in handling statistics.
\"“It is very surprising that research in an area that depends so heavily on statistical methods has not been carried out in close collaboration with professional statisticians,” the report concluded.\"
\"The hockey stick graph was a key part of the scandal. In the e-mails, UEA’s Professor Phil Jones referred to a “trick” to “hide the decline” in temperatures suggested by certain sources of data. A similar trick was used in the hockey stick graph.\"
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/162b0c58-47f5 ... ab49a.html
So just another (among many) chink in the warmers armor.
\"Professor David Hand, president of the Royal Statistical Society, said that a graph shaped like an ice hockey stick that has been used to represent the recent rise in global temperatures had been compiled using “inappropriate” methods.\"
\"Although Wednesday’s report – commissioned by UEA with advice from the Royal Society, the UK’s prestigious national science academy – exonerated the unit’s scientists, it criticised climate experts for failures in handling statistics.
\"“It is very surprising that research in an area that depends so heavily on statistical methods has not been carried out in close collaboration with professional statisticians,” the report concluded.\"
\"The hockey stick graph was a key part of the scandal. In the e-mails, UEA’s Professor Phil Jones referred to a “trick” to “hide the decline” in temperatures suggested by certain sources of data. A similar trick was used in the hockey stick graph.\"
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/162b0c58-47f5 ... ab49a.html
So just another (among many) chink in the warmers armor.
Re:
The News wrote:Volcanic ash closes European airports, stranding tens of thousands of travelers
Oh boy! Sounds man made to me!
http://www.latimes.com/news/nation-and- ... 3752.story
It's never good to wake up in the shrubs naked, you either got way too drunk, or your azz is a werewolf.
Re:
A has what to do with B, now?AlphaDoG wrote:The News wrote:Volcanic ash closes European airports, stranding tens of thousands of travelers
Oh boy! Sounds man made to me!
http://www.latimes.com/news/nation-and- ... 3752.story
Put that in your sig Woodchip. Then you could just kick back and drink a nice cold beer.As I have pointed out all along, climate science is incomplete as items are missing and I certainly agree the data we do have is over a abysmally short period of time to reflect any hard forecasting let alone as a policy making tool
-
Heretic
- DBB Admiral
- Posts: 1449
- Joined: Wed Apr 14, 2010 6:54 pm
- Location: Why no Krom I didn't know you can have 100 characters in this box.
If I understand the beginning of the solar system the earth was a dust cloud then a hard ball of rock with a lot of volcanic activity that slowly cool over time. and has gone through several warming and cooling cycles with at least 5 ice ages. With at least a few time in the billions of years the earth was actually warmer than it is now and had higher CO2 levels to boot. 100 of years of research verses billions of year of planet life, research loses. I guess the next big danger will be the Earth's Continental Plates are shifting, do to man activities so they will have to tax us to stop that from accruing.
Re:
woodchip wrote:Are you saying the graph is a hoax?
Sure looks that way. What Easterbrook shows as the present is actually 1905 --- so he omits the last 100 years of warming. LOL. The graph looks completely different when you add in the recent years.
http://hot-topic.co.nz/cooling-gate-the ... #more-4987
Again, you've been lied to, Woody, but I am now quite sure that this won't change anything in your thinking ... you'll just move on to the next denier meme that is currently hot.
Pandora, do you even check out who authors these zmog blogs you use as reference?\"
Gareth Renowden (MA Oxon) is a writer, photographer and truffle grower based in the Waipara Valley. During a 30 year career in journalism and magazine publishing in the UK and NZ he has worked as a journalist, editor, photographer, publisher and consultant.
So you depend on a fungus grower as a basis for arguing your point of view? Nice try. Come back when you find someone a little more reputable.
Gareth Renowden (MA Oxon) is a writer, photographer and truffle grower based in the Waipara Valley. During a 30 year career in journalism and magazine publishing in the UK and NZ he has worked as a journalist, editor, photographer, publisher and consultant.
So you depend on a fungus grower as a basis for arguing your point of view? Nice try. Come back when you find someone a little more reputable.
oh come on, Woody, this coming from you who loves to post any ramblings from a guy on a website, without any double checking. And isn't it one of the main arguments of sceptics that people should not rely on arguments by authority?
Besides, the claims this 'fungus grower' makes can be easily verified by oneself. Try it and let me know the outcome.
Besides, the claims this 'fungus grower' makes can be easily verified by oneself. Try it and let me know the outcome.
update: new fraud turns up in Easterbrook's 'research'.
http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2010/05 ... e_incl.php
of course, the guy finding it is only a computer scientist, so you probably won't see a reason to believe him anyways
http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2010/05 ... e_incl.php
of course, the guy finding it is only a computer scientist, so you probably won't see a reason to believe him anyways
Sadly Pandora, you ever more appear to be clinging to a blog raft that has unwound itself and are holding fast to the last floating twig. Since you appear to have no real scientific curiosity beyond what a fungus might exhibit, I went ahead and emailed Dr Easterbrook for a reply to what your non-earth scientists are presenting. A few highlighted comments and a link to his full MS Word response paper. Funny how your blog sites don't present his replies in a fair and balanced approach:
Easterbrook
\"When you are losing an argument on the basis of facts and evidence, the oldest trick in the world is to invent some outrageous lie, the more outrageous the better, and while people are reacting to the lie, attention is diverted from the real issue. It is a sure sign of desperation in distracting attention from facts and data. The outrageous charge of fraud made by a self professed \"photographer and truffle grower\" (Gareth Renowden) is not worthy of response, but because the charge is so easily refuted, I will do so.
According to Mr. Renowden (the \"truffle grower), \"Looking through Easterbrook's slides, it seems he has taken a graph of Holocene temperature variations prepared by Global Warming Art (used at Wikipedia), and altered it to fraudulently bolster his case. ... Easterbrook has quite deliberately altered the graph to reduce \"current temperatures\" by 0.75ºC and make the curve fit his storyline.\"
The data in my paper comes from oxygen isotope analyses of ice cores in Greenland made by Dr. Minze Stuiver and Dr. Peter Grootes, long recognized as the world standard for accurate paleotemperatures over thousands of years and used by thousands of scientists all over the world. This data is readily available for anyone to use so my graphs can be reproduced by anyone. The charge by 'the truffle grower' that I used a graph \"prepared by Global Warming Art\" and that I \"altered it to fraudulently bolster his case\" is an outright, contemptible lie. I have the entire Greenland oxygen isotope data in my computer and use it extensively to plot data, so why would I use anything else? The data I use has never been altered in any way.
According to the 'truffle grower,'
\"The original suggests that current temperatures are comparable to, perhaps higher than the warmest period of the Holocene, the post-glacial climatic optimum 8000 years ago. Easterbrook's version gives the impression that for most of the last 10,000 years temperature has been warmer than today.\"
This is totally false--below is the Greenland data for the past 10,000 years (Holocene) from the published paper by Cuffy and Clow (1997), two distinguished US scientists. Note that temperatures for almost all of the past 10,000 years have been warmer than present. Oh, and while you're looking at the data, also note all of the temperature ups and downs that occurred thousands of years before modern increase in CO2, most of which were of greater intensity than recent warming. Perhaps the 'truffle grower' should learn to read a graph.\"
Easterbrook
I'd link the whole Word document but it seems I don't know how
Easterbrook
\"When you are losing an argument on the basis of facts and evidence, the oldest trick in the world is to invent some outrageous lie, the more outrageous the better, and while people are reacting to the lie, attention is diverted from the real issue. It is a sure sign of desperation in distracting attention from facts and data. The outrageous charge of fraud made by a self professed \"photographer and truffle grower\" (Gareth Renowden) is not worthy of response, but because the charge is so easily refuted, I will do so.
According to Mr. Renowden (the \"truffle grower), \"Looking through Easterbrook's slides, it seems he has taken a graph of Holocene temperature variations prepared by Global Warming Art (used at Wikipedia), and altered it to fraudulently bolster his case. ... Easterbrook has quite deliberately altered the graph to reduce \"current temperatures\" by 0.75ºC and make the curve fit his storyline.\"
The data in my paper comes from oxygen isotope analyses of ice cores in Greenland made by Dr. Minze Stuiver and Dr. Peter Grootes, long recognized as the world standard for accurate paleotemperatures over thousands of years and used by thousands of scientists all over the world. This data is readily available for anyone to use so my graphs can be reproduced by anyone. The charge by 'the truffle grower' that I used a graph \"prepared by Global Warming Art\" and that I \"altered it to fraudulently bolster his case\" is an outright, contemptible lie. I have the entire Greenland oxygen isotope data in my computer and use it extensively to plot data, so why would I use anything else? The data I use has never been altered in any way.
According to the 'truffle grower,'
\"The original suggests that current temperatures are comparable to, perhaps higher than the warmest period of the Holocene, the post-glacial climatic optimum 8000 years ago. Easterbrook's version gives the impression that for most of the last 10,000 years temperature has been warmer than today.\"
This is totally false--below is the Greenland data for the past 10,000 years (Holocene) from the published paper by Cuffy and Clow (1997), two distinguished US scientists. Note that temperatures for almost all of the past 10,000 years have been warmer than present. Oh, and while you're looking at the data, also note all of the temperature ups and downs that occurred thousands of years before modern increase in CO2, most of which were of greater intensity than recent warming. Perhaps the 'truffle grower' should learn to read a graph.\"
Easterbrook
I'd link the whole Word document but it seems I don't know how
-
Krom
- DBB Database Master
- Posts: 16135
- Joined: Sun Nov 29, 1998 3:01 am
- Location: Camping the energy center. BTW, did you know you can have up to 100 characters in this location box?
- Contact:
Woody, use a file upload service such as:
http://www.mediafire.com
or
http://www.megaupload.com
(or any of dozens of other options)
They work pretty much the same as those image upload sites, but they handle all types of files. It would be a good idea to put it in a zip file first though, also since they are kind of unreliable at times, doesn't hurt to upload to a couple of them (and most don't require an account).
http://www.mediafire.com
or
http://www.megaupload.com
(or any of dozens of other options)
They work pretty much the same as those image upload sites, but they handle all types of files. It would be a good idea to put it in a zip file first though, also since they are kind of unreliable at times, doesn't hurt to upload to a couple of them (and most don't require an account).
-
Will Robinson
- DBB Grand Master
- Posts: 10124
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2000 3:01 am
While Pandora tries to find a skeleton in the closet of Woody's rebuttal I'll take this moment to shed some perspective on things. We need to remember the Planet always wins, species come and go but the planet just dances around the sun out there in space spinning away laughing at the stuff crawling around on it's crust.
So, yea, the end is quite near for us humans relative to the history of the world but fortunately we're talking about a really slow crawl across one hell of a long time line so we get a few thousand more years at least! So I say we need to focus on the now a little more.
And so as an HVAC/R contractor I'd just like to point out that in the more immediate picture, in this failing economy, global warming is good for jobs! Go swimming, eat ice cream make love and turn off your computer if you want to save energy
So, yea, the end is quite near for us humans relative to the history of the world but fortunately we're talking about a really slow crawl across one hell of a long time line so we get a few thousand more years at least! So I say we need to focus on the now a little more.
And so as an HVAC/R contractor I'd just like to point out that in the more immediate picture, in this failing economy, global warming is good for jobs! Go swimming, eat ice cream make love and turn off your computer if you want to save energy
Re:
Exactly, and I think it's funny how people actually believe the Earth exists because humans are here; it would still be here if we were never accidentally evolved.Will Robinson wrote:While Pandora tries to find a skeleton in the closet of Woody's rebuttal I'll take this moment to shed some perspective on things. We need to remember the Planet always wins, species come and go but the planet just dances around the sun out there in space spinning away laughing at the stuff crawling around on it's crust.
Re:
Also it will be here long after God smites us off the face of the planet.Isaac wrote:Exactly, and I think it's funny how people actually believe the Earth exists because humans are here; it would still be here if we were never accidentally evolved.Will Robinson wrote:While Pandora tries to find a skeleton in the closet of Woody's rebuttal I'll take this moment to shed some perspective on things. We need to remember the Planet always wins, species come and go but the planet just dances around the sun out there in space spinning away laughing at the stuff crawling around on it's crust.
It's never good to wake up in the shrubs naked, you either got way too drunk, or your azz is a werewolf.
Re:
But Calvin is no kind and loving god! He's one of the old gods! He demands sacrifice!AlphaDoG wrote:Also it will be here long after God smites us off the face of the planet.Isaac wrote:Exactly, and I think it's funny how people actually believe the Earth exists because humans are here; it would still be here if we were never accidentally evolved.Will Robinson wrote:While Pandora tries to find a skeleton in the closet of Woody's rebuttal I'll take this moment to shed some perspective on things. We need to remember the Planet always wins, species come and go but the planet just dances around the sun out there in space spinning away laughing at the stuff crawling around on it's crust.
Re:
What ARE you talking about?Isaac wrote:But Calvin is no kind and loving god! He's one of the old gods! He demands sacrifice!AlphaDoG wrote:Also it will be here long after God smites us off the face of the planet.Isaac wrote:Exactly, and I think it's funny how people actually believe the Earth exists because humans are here; it would still be here if we were never accidentally evolved.Will Robinson wrote:While Pandora tries to find a skeleton in the closet of Woody's rebuttal I'll take this moment to shed some perspective on things. We need to remember the Planet always wins, species come and go but the planet just dances around the sun out there in space spinning away laughing at the stuff crawling around on it's crust.
While some claim warm loving species moving north are a indication of global warming, here is a reverse situation where a cold loving fungus is moving into more southern realms:
\"A rare fungus has been sighted in England for the first time.
The fungus Multiclavula vernalis, which forms a tiny, orange fruiting body, was found in Hampshire on land used for training by the British Army. \"
\"It is usually found in colder climes, either nearer the Arctic Circle or in mountainous regions.\"
http://news.bbc.co.uk/earth/hi/earth_ne ... 732421.stm
\"A rare fungus has been sighted in England for the first time.
The fungus Multiclavula vernalis, which forms a tiny, orange fruiting body, was found in Hampshire on land used for training by the British Army. \"
\"It is usually found in colder climes, either nearer the Arctic Circle or in mountainous regions.\"
http://news.bbc.co.uk/earth/hi/earth_ne ... 732421.stm