RealClear electoral vote map

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Wed Sep 26, 2012 12:56 pm

always a useful link, and has proven very accurate since 2000.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html

5 Electoral votes away from 270!!!

snoopy · Post by **snoopy** » Wed Sep 26, 2012 4:47 pm

Can I ask you a question, slick???

Is the excitement about Obama winning, or Romney losing?

Spidey · Post by **Spidey** » Wed Sep 26, 2012 5:11 pm

No, I think his excitement is coming from rubbing certain people’s faces in it.

CUDA · Post by **CUDA** » Wed Sep 26, 2012 5:25 pm

Do I want Romney to win.?

Do I think he will?

Will my world come to an end if Obama wins?

Will I continue to criticize the President when I think he screws up so Slick can call me UN-Patriotic and an Obama Hater?

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Wed Sep 26, 2012 6:18 pm

snoopy wrote:Can I ask you a question, slick???

Is the excitement about Obama winning, or Romney losing?

it's about the clearly superior choice prevailing.

Good questions all, CUDA

Ferno · Post by **Ferno** » Wed Sep 26, 2012 6:43 pm

The problem with Romney is, even if he was a 'liberal', I'd still consider him batshit.

I mean come on. If he doesn't know why aircraft windows don't roll up and then suggest they should because 'oxygen from outside the aircraft to get in the aircraft', then what does that bode for his other and more serious ideas? Even as a joke, that's scary.

someone should tell Romney that if more oxygen came in through the windows.. it would feed that fire and create a more serious situation.

Spidey · Post by **Spidey** » Wed Sep 26, 2012 6:57 pm

I just watched that Romney video, and the way he was laughing would seem to indicate he was having a little fun.

But spin away…..

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Wed Sep 26, 2012 7:04 pm

Spidey wrote:No, I think his excitement is coming from rubbing certain people’s faces in it.

well, sure, that too!

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Wed Sep 26, 2012 7:05 pm

Spidey wrote:I just watched that Romney video, and the way he was laughing would seem to indicate he was having a little fun.

But spin away…..

I sort of agree with you on that one.....but, it doesn't help him cracking that funny right at this moment.

Ferno · Post by **Ferno** » Wed Sep 26, 2012 7:05 pm

Spidey wrote:I just watched that Romney video, and the way he was laughing would seem to indicate he was having a little fun.

But spin away…..

like i said, i know it was a joke. but still; that's some really dark humor/someone not quite thinking it through.

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Wed Sep 26, 2012 7:18 pm

Fermo, no matter what the reality of Mitt's thinking was, you are a good illustration of why old Mitt is getting his ass handed to him,
up to this point(and seriously, folks, anything COULD happen in 5 weeks or so, even I realize that much): Romney just isn't winning people over on the likeability aspect of the campaign. No one should ever discount that.....it won the first election for Bush, was mostly responsible for Clinton's victories, likewise Reagan's. People want a President that seems like a pleasant guy to hang out with, and for most people(and a staggering number of women), the person just isn't Mitt Romney. On the other hand, Obama has always scored well in terms of personal likeablility(something around 70%). Pertinent to leadership? Not really. Important in winning an election? Absolutely.

Spidey · Post by **Spidey** » Wed Sep 26, 2012 7:28 pm

I’m not getting that aspect of it, I know for a fact when things are really darkest, that’s when a sense of humor is most important.

I got blown halfway across the room one day because some idiot put 2 single pole breakers in where a double breaker was supposed to be (got blasted thru the load) and I have been making jokes about it ever since…after the initial shock, of course…pun intended.

Well, slick…it doesn’t help when the press is trying to spin you into an idiot, one thing I learned early in my political life….Republicans “must” watch what they say…Democrats, not so much.

Ferno · Post by **Ferno** » Wed Sep 26, 2012 8:31 pm

callmeslick wrote:Fermo, no matter what the reality of Mitt's thinking was, you are a good illustration of why old Mitt is getting his ass handed to him

maybe. but i'd rather see a candidate say something well-thought out. If they make a joke, it would be much better if it was clever.

I guess I value intelligence over likeability, because I know a few people who are a blast to hang out with but are dumb as a rock (and it just drives me up the wall).

CUDA · Post by **CUDA** » Thu Sep 27, 2012 6:04 am

In all honesty I don't see where Obama is getting his support from. I have 10-15 friends that voted for him in the last election and easily 90% of them say they wont be voting for him this time. and probably wont be voting because they don't like Romney either.

I'm seriously questioning those polls.

what I do know is that MOST of the polls are skewed in their samplings. most of them have polled disproportionately to the Democratic side which tends to weight more towards Obama, while only 1 poll Rasmussen has been weighted close to even and it has the race at a dead heat.

real clear is just an average of all those polls. so it doesn't surprise me that it is showing Obama in the lead. if most polls are skewed then so is theirs

Pollsters say there is no attempt at bias and that they are simply sampling people who answer their phones. But that has led to several high-profile polls that have shown Democrats substantially outnumbering Republicans, even though they usually hold only a slight lead on Election Day.

The question for pollsters then becomes whether to tweak the data to give added weight to responses from groups that often go underrepresented in polls — such as Republicans, young voters and minorities — to come up with a sampling that better represents the electorate.

so they are giving us polling results based on biased data, and then manipulating that data to try to get an accurate poll.

as I was once taught. believe none of what you hear and only half of what you see. I'll wait for November

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/201 ... z27fbqRsQP

woodchip · Post by **woodchip** » Thu Sep 27, 2012 6:25 am

Just remember, John Kerry was leading in the exit polls right up to when Bush was declared the victor.

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Thu Sep 27, 2012 6:33 am

but, woody, RealClear didn't have Kerry 5% ahead 6 weeks out, either, and exit polling is notoriously flawed, until it is ALL compiled.

as I pointed out to you in an alternate universe, CUDA, that 'error of polling' stuff has been flying around the right wing net for 48 hours. They are wrong.
Anecdotal evidence in both directions is extant this season.....I see some Obama supporters of 08 voting Greens, VERY FEW supporting Romney. On the other hand, I have talked to a lot of moderate Republicans voting Obama this year, because they simply don't like Romney and are scared of Ryan.
Most of the latter are elderly.

woodchip · Post by **woodchip** » Thu Sep 27, 2012 6:41 am

Haha Slick, polls I've seen have the elderly 60/40 for Romney. And the Democrats I've talked to (including the Jewish ones) are voting Romney because they are either unemployed or in the case of the Jews, don't like how Obama has been treating Israel.

Foil · Post by **Foil** » Thu Sep 27, 2012 8:49 am

In my "toss-up" state, Colorado, it's interesting to watch.

I live in a very caucasian Denver suburb in one of the top ten wealthiest counties in the nation, so one would think Romney support would be overwhelming here. From my entirely non-scientific "overhearing conversations, and watching bumperstickers on my daily commute" observations, it actually looks like Romney has only a slight edge.

On the other hand, I've seen more Obama ads lately, but since the political ads here have been basically non-stop for a couple of months, "ad fatigue" has set in, so it may negatively impact him. We'll see.

CUDA · Post by **CUDA** » Thu Sep 27, 2012 9:13 am

callmeslick wrote:as I pointed out to you in an alternate universe, CUDA, that 'error of polling' stuff has been flying around the right wing net for 48 hours. They are wrong.

that's not what the facts say, or even what the pollsters themselves say. so lets talk about that alternate universe

again I will point out "Pollsters say there is no attempt at bias and that they are simply sampling people who answer their phones. But that has led to several high-profile polls that have shown Democrats substantially outnumbering Republicans," this is from the pollsters themselves, so I ask who is wrong?

and actually "the Right" has been talking about the slanted polls for MONTHS not just the last 48

snoopy · Post by **snoopy** » Thu Sep 27, 2012 11:11 am

I'm pretty sure it's going to be really close.

I'm also saddened that it looks like this race is really going to come down to a "likability" (read: popularity) contest between the two candidates. I'm pretty convinced that the last few "swing votes" that decide things aren't going to have anything to do with either candidate's policies.

Foil · Post by **Foil** » Thu Sep 27, 2012 11:19 am

How do you distinguish "swing votes" from the rest? Or are you referring to later votes, and saying they'll be a reaction to early results?

snoopy · Post by **snoopy** » Thu Sep 27, 2012 11:54 am

Foil wrote:How do you distinguish "swing votes" from the rest? Or are you referring to later votes, and saying they'll be a reaction to early results?

I mean many of the undecided/independent votes that land in the ~6% according to the polls. I'm not saying that they will be swayed by earlier votes, I'm saying that I think the people who will pick based on policy will be so evenly split that it'll come down to the people who vote based on who they like more that'll decide the election. Thus, the direction that the nation takes will be decided by who's more popular, not by the validity of their policy.

vision · Post by **vision** » Thu Sep 27, 2012 2:20 pm

snoopy wrote:I'm also saddened that it looks like this race is really going to come down to a "likability" (read: popularity) contest between the two candidates.

I'm cool with that. I don't like either candidate's policies, so I'll gladly settle for the more likable one. I guess I like Obama more, but ugh, not my first choice that's for sure.

CobGobbler · Post by **CobGobbler** » Thu Sep 27, 2012 2:28 pm

I love all of this. The Republicans sit there and just can't believe how they are losing again to this guy so now they've turned to blaming the polls themselves. Of course they're not 100% correct, but goddamn is it fun to sit back and watch your side get all bent out of shape that your boy can't turn the corner.

With this economy, Romney should be leading by 15 points in every poll. The fact that he isn't speaks volumes about how ineffective of a campaign that man has run. Oh well, we'll find how accurate these polls were in a month.

woodchip · Post by **woodchip** » Thu Sep 27, 2012 4:05 pm

It's funny Cob, how a while back when Gallup had Romney up by 7, ole Axelrod wanted Gallup to come to the white house for a little Chicago style "discussion" as to the polling methods Gallup was using.

Top Gun · Post by **Top Gun** » Thu Sep 27, 2012 5:00 pm

Kilarin · Post by **Kilarin** » Thu Sep 27, 2012 6:01 pm

I don't know anyone who wants to vote for Romney. Not one. There has got to be some real Romney fans out there somewhere, but I haven't met one yet.

I know a lot of people who say they are going to vote AGAINST Obama, and they think that means they have to vote FOR Romney. Limited point of view.

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Thu Sep 27, 2012 6:40 pm

tangental point: I was wondering aloud last night, in a discussion with a few friends, and today with my Dad, if you aren't going to see the media try and paint Romney as the winner of the first debate? Why? Because, right or left in the news media business, it is still a business, and that business doesn't make much money off a boring landslide. So, look to see if they try to push Romney a wee bit at ALL the major news outlets on Tuesday. Maybe, just maybe, I'm a bit too cynical, but that is my guess.

Back on the core topic, anecdotal 15 person polling data aside--my best guess is that Obama will get less of a total popular vote as he did in 2008, but still pull about the same Electoral College vote. Now, I am doing no real work for the campaign this time(too much family, moving and retirement planning issues to devote the time required), but I did work with these folks in 2008,and damn, they are organized. They will, trust me, get every last vote they can find out to the polls, even with all the roadblocks that have been set up for them. Further, they are as aware as any political organization I've ever seen of the nature of the game, the rules and the final goal. I said, back when I was proposing wagers with Obama haters last year that the GOP choice had better be prepared to run a really tight ship and world-class ground game. Frankly, I haven't seen much of that sort of thing from the Romney camp......

Tunnelcat · Post by **Tunnelcat** » Thu Sep 27, 2012 8:47 pm

Kilarin wrote:I don't know anyone who wants to vote for Romney. Not one. There has got to be some real Romney fans out there somewhere, but I haven't met one yet.

I know a lot of people who say they are going to vote AGAINST Obama, and they think that means they have to vote FOR Romney. Limited point of view.

I've got 2 neighbors I know and my own stepfather who are definitely going to vote for Romney. Whether they like Romney, or hate Obama, I don't know.

flip · Post by **flip** » Sat Sep 29, 2012 5:14 pm

Well, I myself think a slow recovery is exactly what we need, but I fear the impatience of the majority. I'm calling Romney, I may be wrong, but Obama's campaign the first time around was immune to criticism and he said all the right things. Not so much this time around.

woodchip · Post by **woodchip** » Sat Sep 29, 2012 5:40 pm

By the look of the enthusiastic crowds Romney is drawing compared to the lackluster quarter filled venues Obama has, I'd say momentum is on Romney's side

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Sun Sep 30, 2012 7:13 am

man, are you delusional, Woody. Try looking at the makeup of the early voting turnouts......

heck, though, Romney still has a chance. If all else fails, just cheat:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49227596/ns ... ork_times/

Top Gun · Post by **Top Gun** » Sun Sep 30, 2012 11:29 am

Seriously, every news story I've read on the election over the past week has discussed how momentum is swinging Obama's way, and how Romney would have to sweep pretty much every battleground state in order to have a shot at winning. But hey, I guess woody can believe whatever he wants.

Spidey · Post by **Spidey** » Sun Sep 30, 2012 11:51 am

We should probably wait for the debates before declaring a victor.

Top Gun · Post by **Top Gun** » Sun Sep 30, 2012 1:42 pm

Well yeah, the momentum swing could be completely different in just one week from now, but to say it's something at this moment which it's clearly not is kind of silly.

woodchip · Post by **woodchip** » Sun Sep 30, 2012 7:02 pm

callmeslick wrote:man, are you delusional, Woody. Try looking at the makeup of the early voting turnouts......

heck, though, Romney still has a chance. If all else fails, just cheat:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49227596/ns ... ork_times/

You mean like Daffy Duck and dead people voted for Obama during last election?

woodchip · Post by **woodchip** » Sun Sep 30, 2012 7:05 pm

Top Gun wrote:Seriously, every news story I've read on the election over the past week has discussed how momentum is swinging Obama's way, and how Romney would have to sweep pretty much every battleground state in order to have a shot at winning. But hey, I guess woody can believe whatever he wants.

I certainly don't believe what I hear from CNN/MSNBC/ABC/CBS/NBC/The New York Times or the Huffington post. I mean all of them are so non partisan.

Top Gun · Post by **Top Gun** » Mon Oct 01, 2012 3:03 pm

Ladies and gentlemen, Poe's Law in action.

CobGobbler · Post by **CobGobbler** » Mon Oct 01, 2012 7:22 pm

"I only believe the news source that is fair and balanced. It says so in their motto. It has to be true! They reinforce my selective perception everyday so I feel better about myself! I slam the main stream media on a daily basis, but not my source, they aren't part of that! News Corp isn't a big company. And they show suicides!"

Sirius · Post by **Sirius** » Tue Oct 02, 2012 11:35 am

AFAIK Rasmussen only polls landlines (for the phone part of things, apparently) which may explain why they tend to skew Republican.