200 years of space exploration - Roid wrote:This was a great post spelling out the possible path the next 200 years of space exploration will take. Which will take us to the level where we as a species are spread over the solar system, with permanent settlement on the moon, mars, venus, the moons of Jupiter, the asteroid belt... and are approaching the viablity of sending off interstellar missions to other stars systems.
Seems like a pretty plausible schedule eh.
"Stephen Ashworth sits in at Centauri Dreams to riff on a big question: How are we going to build the Solar System-wide infrastructure we need to launch an eventual interstellar mission?"
http://www.centauri-dreams.org/?p=24996A scenario for the ten-billion-times growth factor
Within this middle way scenario, I would envisage the following sequence of events for the future of manned spaceflight merging into Solar System colonisation.
1. Government exploration missions to low Earth orbit, and establishment of an outpost there. (Now complete.)
2. Based on the exploration in step 1, private enterprise now markets low Earth orbit for commercial passenger spaceflight, dominated by space tourism but also featuring commercial space manufacturing and university-funded science, and creates a growing, economically self-sustaining low Earth orbit infrastructure. (Now just beginning, and dependent upon SKYLON-type vehicles for full success. Expect this phase to unfold during the 2020s, with ultimately thousands of passengers flying to orbit and back every week.)
3. As low Earth orbit becomes more populated and costs of access fall, a market will appear for lunar flyby trips (Space Adventures has announced it already has one committed client for a flight around 2015). These are best satisfied by adapting existing space hotel designs for injection into Earth-Moon cycler orbits, thus ensuring that full solar flare protection, repair facilities and buffers of consumables can be built up in cislunar space. (Late 2020s to 2030s.)
4. The growing space hotel system and the demand for translunar propellants create a large-scale market for volatiles, especially water, in orbit which can be satisfied by robotic mining of the near-Earth asteroids; again, government exploration, in this case robotic asteroid exploration, will be needed to develop the technologies towards commercial sustainability. (2030s to 2040s.)
5. Based on the infrastructure in steps 2, 3 and 4, governments, singly or in collaboration, now launch new exploration missions to the Moon very much more economically than could have been achieved with an Apollo-style system, and establish one or more outposts there. (2050s.)
6. Based on the infrastructure in steps 2, 3 and 4, the construction of solar power satellites to serve Earth now becomes economically attractive, and the conversion of Earth from fossil fuels to solar power begins. (2030s to 2050s.)
7. Based on the exploration in step 5, private enterprise now markets the Moon for commercial passenger spaceflight, dominated by space tourism but also featuring lunar surface science, and creates a growing, economically self-sustaining lunar surface infrastructure. (2060s.)
8. Based on the infrastructure in steps 2, 3 and 4, government now launches exploration missions to Mars and Venus, and establishes outposts there. (2080s.)
9. Based on the exploration in step 8, private enterprise now markets Mars and Venus for commercial passenger spaceflight, dominated by science and colonisation. Interplanetary transport will use a network of cycler stations based on several decades of experience with Earth-Moon cycler stations. (Into the 2100s.)
10. Outposts on Mars and Venus grow into colonies, and meanwhile the cycler stations also grow into substantial transit cities, supplied from asteroids rather than from Earth. (First half of the 22nd century.)
11. Based on the existing interplanetary infrastructure, government now launches exploration missions to the Main Asteroid Belt, Jupiter and further afield. (Mid-22nd century.)
12. Based on the exploration in step 11 and several decades of experience operating interplanetary cycler stations, private enterprise sets up mining and construction ventures in the Main Asteroid Belt to create self-sufficient colonies there. New cycler stations link these colonies with the inner planets. (Mid-22nd century.)
13. At the same time, private enterprise sets up cycler stations to serve Jupiter and Saturn, serving growing colonies on the respective giant planets’ moons and among the Jupiter Trojan asteroids. (Late 22nd century.)
14. The interplanetary economy is now growing independently of Earth, but at the same time the commerce (material, energy, information) between the colonies and Earth enriches civilisation at all locations. (The state of play at 1 January 2200.)
This scenario thus completes the transformation of civilisation from monoplanetary to multiplanetary status, and sets up the conditions under which economic and population growth may now proceed without interruption until the limits of the carrying capacity of the Solar System are reached.
(cont...)
I agree with that. As romantic an idea space exploration and colonization is, I think dreaming of civilization's expansion beyond earth only demonstrates people's ability to rage against that which is plainly obvious. The Earth has everything we need, while in space or on another planet 99% of what we need to survive would need to be artificially created and, more importantly, shipped in, which includes breathable air (to be fair the percentage of things shipped in or artificially created has become quite high in some places here on Earth). It could be done, I think, but I believe it will always be found to be a great difficulty, while on earth survival is possible even for the most unsophisticated.Snoopy wrote:P.S. I'm also skeptical. I think we under estimate the awesome wealth of resources that the earth is compared to space/asteroids/the moon. Like I said, I'd love to see it happen, but the pessimist in me doubts we'll ever colonize anywhere off of this planet.
I believe that humanity will be called into judgment before it has a chance to colonize any other planet. Things have gotten pretty bad. Is it OK to kill an unborn child? Ok to change partners throughout life, at whatever rate? Ok to lie and cheat? Ok not to honor your Father and Mother? People don't even like to believe in any standards, things have gotten so bad. To get along you don't judge what anyone else is doing except by an ever-shifting popular standard. And then there are people on this earth who make evil decisions which impact or destroy countless lives for the achievement of their own high-minded, selfish or idealistic goals. The human race is such a moral ★■◆●-up, that anyone who turns a blind eye to it and dreams of our next step in evolution or a new era of peace and technological freedom is definitely in REM mode. I have met very few people in my life that would give me hope for the human race's advancement, and anyone I've met who isn't stupid is usually what I would call "high-minded", which means they're the same corrupt people, but they dress it up with more complexity.
Incidentally the Bible shortcuts this kind of examination. A person could believe the Bible and save 10-20 years of fighting to be honest about our situation while learning the ugly truth of it. During that 10-20 years most people find a livable comfort zone and opt-out of the truth in favor of a level of self-deception which makes the whole thing bearable/comfortable. I've been tempted to do it consciously. Most people do it unconsciously.
