China threatens military seizure of South China Sea island from Philippines
A Chinese media article published over the weekend says that China is preparing for a military invasion of the second-largest of the Spratly Islands. Pagasa Island is administered by the Philippines.
China calls it the Zhongye Island and claims ownership, along with vast areas of the South China Sea including regions that have historically belonged to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines.
China has threatened to use its vast military power to threaten and subdue any neighboring nation that disobeys its orders.
This comes just a few days after China escalated tensions by demanding that any foreign fishing vessel ask permission from China's military before fishing in the South China Sea.
Pagasa Island is designated a town in the Philippines with a civilian population of nearly 200 and an airstrip with 50 soldiers. In March 2011, the Philippine military announced plans to upgrade the airfield.
According to a translated summary of the Chinese media report:
Relying on US support, the Philippines is so arrogant as to announce in the New Year that it will increase its navy and air force deployment at Zhongye Island, a Chinese island that it has illegally occupied for years. It will be an intolerable insult to China.
According to experts, the Chinese navy has drawn a detailed combat plan to seize the island and the battle will be restricted within the South China Sea.
The battle is aimed at recovery of the island stolen by the Philippines from China.
There will be no invasion into Filipino territories.
A report in the Philippines Star confirmed the Philippines military buildup on the island.
The article said that the attack will occur in 2014. This would be the second such military seizure by China. In 2012, China used threat of military force to seize the Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines.
Some analysts are speculating that China's new military policy will be to seize all the islands in the South China Sea, one by one, counting on the fact that no single military act would force a response by the United States. China Daily Mail and Philippine Star.
I can't remember a time in my life when China hasn't made threats like this. It's just noise (adults know this). But hey, if you want to get all excited and hate on the president go right ahead. Just makes you look uninformed.
China's becoming a big player on the world stage. I wouldn't dismiss them so blithely. It won't be long before they start throwing their weight around, because now they CAN. I hope I'm long gone by the time they do.
Cat (n.) A bipolar creature which would as soon gouge your eyes out as it would cuddle.
Yeah, but that arc is expanding at an accelerated rate, and I live on the West Coast. To hell with Al Qaeda, China's got state backing for their dreams of world dominance.
vision wrote:All this ridiculous fear of China. It's like no one here ever played the game RISK before...
It's not a ridiculous fear of China. It's a realization that China may act stupidly and provocatively as its government fears its own populace more than the US or anyone else.
Nationalism is rising and is being played for political gain if not a distraction from sudden economic slowdown if not a stall and collapse. Something has to give.
China's economic house of cards has been judged to be several orders of magnitude worse than the US. There will be a sudden crisis of confidence and all bets are off. The people will be motivated not by 'democracy' but by not having food on the table. The revolt will make Tiananmen look like pipe dream.
When the leaders of China become desperate, they will do anything- including starting hostilities- to regain the support of their people.
. "Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun"- Mao Zedong
you know that nationalism isn't a new thing(not for Flip, aimed at TB, who acts as if using nationism as a smokescreen is something that hasn't been a staple since roughly the 15th century)?
"The Party told you to reject all evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command."
George Orwell---"1984"
TB may be a little reactionary, but there is plenty to be worried about regarding China, not the least of which is…if there were a war in the future…we would be screwed because they will have all of the manufacturing ability, and the infrastructure.
This is the thing that made the USSR a paper tiger, they looked real strong on the surface, but didn’t have the ability to produce simple things like plastic tubing.
Spidey makes a valid point, but tempered by this fact: China, today, has an economy that is so dependant on, and intertwined with, the economies of virtually ALL of their potential adversaries, that overt aggression could prove ultra-costly. Sure, I contend that they will overtake the US as the predominant world power someday, but it will be sheer economics that gets them there, along with scale of population. Militaries GUARD economic strength, not visa versa.
"The Party told you to reject all evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command."
George Orwell---"1984"
What I'm afraid is China will realize the Trojan horse all that manufacturing and economic stimulation brought and they come out of that toxic waste dump pissed off with hands raised. I know I would.
Reminds me of that song, Move over little dog, 3.5-4 billion Chinese are moving in.
callmeslick wrote:you know that nationalism isn't a new thing(not for Flip, aimed at TB, who acts as if using nationism as a smokescreen is something that hasn't been a staple since roughly the 15th century)?
Yes it has been around but there is a difference between the nationalism the Nazis displayed and what the Swedish people displayed.
callmeslick wrote:you know that nationalism isn't a new thing(not for Flip, aimed at TB, who acts as if using nationism as a smokescreen is something that hasn't been a staple since roughly the 15th century)?
It just so happens to be a country armed with nukes which the People's Liberation Army generals have spoken freely of using as if they were firecrackers.
. "Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun"- Mao Zedong
Spidey wrote:TB may be a little reactionary, but there is plenty to be worried about regarding China, not the least of which is…if there were a war in the future…we would be screwed because they will have all of the manufacturing ability, and the infrastructure.
This is the thing that made the USSR a paper tiger, they looked real strong on the surface, but didn’t have the ability to produce simple things like plastic tubing.
That may be true, but a friend of my husband who is from China and knows their system says that one little detail may hinder their desire for world dominance. They are too corrupt in all levels of government and business to coordinate something so grand. We better hope so.
Cat (n.) A bipolar creature which would as soon gouge your eyes out as it would cuddle.
More impact
What is on the minds of these eminences?(in Davos)
Well, the most interesting conversation so far was an (unusual) on-the-record briefing for a few hacks by Japan's Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe.
Why was this gripping (and a bit scary)?
Well, he volunteered that Japan's current bad relations with China are redolent of the relationship between Britain and Germany 100 years ago, or shortly before World War 1.
Which is the sort of thing you would expect clever-clogs commentators to say (in fact they do say this), but it has more impact (ahem) when said by Japan's leader.
And, indeed, he elaborated.
He recognises that - just like Britain and Germany in 1914 - Japan and China are inter-dependent economies, trading partners with huge mutual interests.
Peace would therefore be the bulwark of their prosperity and that of the region.
But he was explicit that he saw the 10% per annum increase in China's defence budget as a provocation.
As for his controversial visit to the Yasukuni shrine, there was explanation, but no hint of regret or apology. Mr Abe simply insisted that China was wrong to see him as honouring a small number of "war criminals". Instead, he was paying respect to the "souls" of millions of other genuine Japanese war heroes.
And, by the way, Japan's title to the Senkaku Islands, which China disputes, is unimpeachable (or so Mr Abe said).
So the two countries leaders are not the best of people who may be more worried about their political careers and the nationalistic feelings of the populace than what is prudent. This ought to end well.
It's all talk. Nothing will happen because there is no gain from having 2 of the 3 largest economies go to war. Large scale military conflicts are numbers games. You don't pull the trigger unless the probability of success is past a certain threshold. Unless someone can show me how either side wins by a large margin I'm not convinced this is anything more than chatter.
