the Taliban

[vision]

Ok, so you actually don't know how statistics work. Anyway, you got anything other than troop morale as the devastating consequence of the Bergdahl trade?

Didn't think so.

[Ferno]

I haven't seen a beating this bad since Hostile beat Alice at Califest.

[woodchip]

Yeah, I feel bad for vision.

[callmeslick]

Yeah, I feel bad for vision.

...read everything posted since I got on the train Friday, and can't see why. He's beaten Will, in particular, like a cheap rug, mostly due to Will's insistence upon repeating assertions that Vision already proved to be wrong.

[Will Robinson]

First off, in order to create some deflection of criticism for the President vision tried to establish a red herring premise with his silly 'it has to rise to the level of National Security' threshold to warrant criticism. *I asserted* that is bull feces, that we can have legitimate criticism of Obama's actions that are bad decisions but don't rise to the level vision arbitrarily propped up to dodge behind... but, to play along with him, *I asserted* National Security is tied to troop morale....
It is and he concedes it is.

*I asserted* trading 5 high level terrorists for a deserter is bad for morale.
vision claims that negative effect is only going to manifest in a select few troops. He can't figure out which few, or how many are going to be affected. He can't tell us what makes those few different from all the rest...or how he came to that conclusion...etc.
He fails miserably on that point.

*I asserted* the approval rating for Obama is trending down among the military.
It is.
vision claims that since the civilian population is also trending downward the alleged parallel indicates no effect to troop morale. That premise is flawed because, for a parallel track to be evidence of no effect, you have to assume there is no negative effect on the civilian approval as a result of the trade.
That isn't the case because civilians are ALSO finding fault in Obama for that trade.
So there is nothing supporting visions claim that morale is unaffected.

But hey if you want to say he won in trying to derail and chase rabbits down a hole he got close...
If you want to talk about long term approval trends not showing the effect of the swap which can never be broken out as a separate data point/blip then sure, considering the Court Martial hasn't happened yet...that the investigation that proves Bergdahl deserted was kept quiet until just recently then sure he can have that fun-with-stats red herring merit badge.

But he has failed miserably to prove his assertions and equally has failed to counter mine.

[callmeslick]

and neither of you has really dealt with the original topic(making the Taliban out to be an international terrorist group) since Friday, and I don't really even see the supporting data for any of your assertions, Will. Military support has always broken down differently between officers and enlisted in each election(former GOP, latter Dem voters) and no true long-term change either way in either camp that is statistically significant.

[Will Robinson]

There is no relevance to how the sub groups within the military break down with their support. Not sure why you are going there.
The support is waning. Even as the civilian trends up military morale is remarkably low. Respect for Obama lags behind due to numerous moves he has made in their realm.

Breaking the rules to reward a deserter isn't going to play well and there is no magic fence a la visions claim that keeps the effect limited. To what ever degree it contributes to a soldiers agitation it will do so across the board.

Is it the same level as knowing thousands of your brothers had legs blown off and can't get a doctors appointment at the VA? Of course not!
But that doesn't make it a positive factor. It pisses them off that the guy walked out on his duty and handed himself over to the enemy and now Obama says he gets a pay raise and a parade after setting 5 top level al Qaeda guys free to get the deserter released.

Fortunately the parade was cancelled and so far the Court Martial will go forward unless Obama has his way.

As to the original topic I gave my opinion.

[vision]

So, what damage ca we expect from this terrible morale problem we have? Make your predictions for 2015!

[woodchip]

Morale problems show up in increased discipline problems and retention rates:

"Why are so many of the most talented officers now abandoning military life for the private sector? An exclusive survey of West Point graduates shows that it’s not just money. Increasingly, the military is creating a command structure that rewards conformism and ignores merit."
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/arc ... ng/308346/

[vision]

Morale problems show up in increased discipline problems and retention rates:

“Since the late 1980s … prospects for the Officer Corps’ future have been darkened by … plummeting company-grade officer retention rates. Significantly, this leakage includes a large share of high-performing officers.”

Regan/Bush??????