Election predictions....

[Nightshade]

It'd be interesting to see what people predict will happen in the presidential race.

We can post ours here in this forum and look back later to see who was closest to correct...

Anyway, this is my highly speculative prediction:

Trump wins the Republican nomination...

The FBI hands off the Hillary e-mail investigation evidence to the Justice Department and Obama's girl Loretta Lynch 'decides' not to prosecute.

Obama makes a deal with Hillary to extract concessions from her when she wins the presidency in exchange for not letting the DOJ pursue charges. (One of these concessions possibly elevating Obama or his surrogates to positions in government.)

Some FBI people make a stink about it but it's quickly swept under the rug and not covered by a compliant mainstream media like the rest of the scandals.

Clinton wins the Democratic nomination.

Both Trump and Clinton run a slugfest campaign of slime- though Hillary's is more slick and polished, slicing Trump to ribbons.

A split and demoralized Republican electorate only partially comes out for Trump on election day while the Democrat drone machine all vote in lock step to sweep Hillary into the White House in November.

Obama might even be appointed to the Supreme Court by President H. Clinton.

[Nightshade]

No others? This is just for fun- no money involved.

[vision]

No others? This is just for fun- no money involved.

Your guess sounds reasonable. I'm hoping the primaries today paint a different picture of the GOP nomination because they would have a better chance with Rubio (I'm not sure Cruz can pull from the middle even though I think he's more presidential than Rubio).

[Lothar]

My prediction:

the "Not-Trump" vote continues to coalesce into three, then two, then finally one candidate -- either Cruz or Rubio. Kasich becomes the VP candidate.

Hillary wins the D nomination on the strength of superdelegates. She picks somebody really boring and political as a running mate. Some D governor, maybe, who will hint at class warfare rhetoric throughout the election cycle.

The election will actually be close, turning on a few swing states. Kasich will pull Ohio. Indiana, Florida, NC, and the SW cluster (CO/NM/NV) will have a lot of 50-48 (+2 "other") results. Attack ads about the Hillary e-mail scandal will be considered to have turned the election for the R ticket.

[Z..]

What an absolute joke of a post. How about California and New York Lothar? Hell, throw Illinois in there too and maybe Kasich can create an '84 all over again! The delusions that you guys have is just staggering. Kasich aint that great, and how can he possibly run on a ticket where the Presidential nominee advocates for taking away the only real accomplishment that Kasich can claim? It's so incredibly laughable.

[Vander]

Well, I already made my prediction on who gets the nominations. So in the general, Clinton beats Cruz by 3 points.

[woodchip]

I predict when Hillary gets questioned by the FBI, she does a Martha Stewart.

[vision]

I predict when Hillary gets questioned by the FBI, she does a Martha Stewart.

Martha Stewart turned out just fine. No real damage to her brand and she's still working and looking just as beautiful as ever.

[Lothar]

How about California and New York

How about Texas and the south?

Compare https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the ... ail-biter/ to https://www.economy.com/dismal/topics/e ... onModelAug -- it doesn't take much to shift an election from "close" to "McCain/Dukakis territory" (though it takes a lot to get to Mondale territory.)

There's a lot of campaigning left to do. Some of these candidates still have surprises up their sleeves.

[woodchip]

I predict when Hillary gets questioned by the FBI, she does a Martha Stewart.

Martha Stewart turned out just fine. No real damage to her brand and she's still working and looking just as beautiful as ever.

Either you are being obtuse or don't have a very good memory. Martha went to jail for lying to the feds. Hillary does the same and her political brand is toast. Not sure where you came up with your statement and how it would apply to Hillary.

[vision]

Martha went to jail for lying to the feds. Hillary does the same and her political brand is toast.

If we didn't prosecute the Bush administration for war crimes I don't see how there is any chance of Mrs. Clinton serving jail time.

[Nightshade]

Martha went to jail for lying to the feds. Hillary does the same and her political brand is toast.

If we didn't prosecute the Bush administration for war crimes I don't see how there is any chance of Mrs. Clinton serving jail time.

Politics > Justice

[callmeslick]

prediction--
GOP--Trump gets beat by Cruz, eschews an independant run. His supporters fade back from the scene and back under the bridges and rocks they've been festering under. They do not vote in November. The GOP establishment gives tepid support to Cruz, but secretly loathes him, and focuses on saving the Senate and House.

Dems--Hillary fades in the stretch, despite tacking to Sanders' positions heavily, due to lingering doubts and a beefed up Sanders ad campaign which has begun. Dems unite at the thought of Cruz, and show up in the fall in decent numbers.


overall turnout is lower than the last two Presidentials, at around 55%.

Sanders wins the Presidency after an actual debate about the role of government, takes the Senate along with it, but still doesn't take the House. The wannabe Nazis that support Trump try and stir up trouble, calling for Civil War and the like along with disgruntled Cruz supporters, the government and the general public relegate them to the trash-bin of history and the nation moves forward, having finally settled some large questions about the direction most people wish to go.

[Foil]

The political narratives in here are hilarious.

---------

Anyway, my prediction:

R: Brokered convention, ends up with Cruz or Rubio.
D: Close, but Clinton wins.

I'm seeing two possibilities:

If Cruz, we get Hillary.
If Rubio, he wins.

( Why the difference between Cruz/Rubio success in the national election? There's not much political difference between them, but I think people underestimate the "physical attractiveness" factor in elections. )

[callmeslick]

very astute analysis of the 'personality' factor, Foil. Rubio, though, runs the risk of seeming excessively angry. I think they told him to tone that down a bit, or so it seemed recently.
By the way, the personality factor is sort of why I think the close race(we agree there) goes to Bernie. He's just more likeable. The passing of Nancy Reagan, invoking memories of her late husband, speak volumes to the electoral power of likeability.
I chose Cruz as the winner merely because he has a less nebulous and more adamant base that is determined to beat Trump back to New York City.
....that said, I really would love, as an American, and not merely for partisan reasons, to see Cruz v Sanders. You might actually have a national referendum on the role of government, the idea of originalist Constitution versus fleible document, and the definition of political money as 'free speech'. We sorely need, as a nation, to settle some of those issues, or we will forever be in some sort of back and forth with little real direction.

[Nightshade]

The political narratives in here are hilarious.

---------

Anyway, my prediction:

R: Brokered convention, ends up with Cruz or Rubio.
D: Close, but Clinton wins.

I'm seeing two possibilities:

If Cruz, we get Hillary.
If Rubio, he wins.

( Why the difference between Cruz/Rubio success in the national election? There's not much political difference between them, but I think people underestimate the "physical attractiveness" factor in elections. )

Yep. Pretty sad- but it doesn't explain people voting for a bloated week old orange wearing a dead blonde poodle.

[Nightshade]

March 15th will tell the tale, but I think my scenario is winning out at this point. (As much as I hate it.)

[Nightshade]

It'd be interesting to see what people predict will happen in the presidential race.

We can post ours here in this forum and look back later to see who was closest to correct...

Anyway, this is my highly speculative prediction:

Trump wins the Republican nomination...

The FBI hands off the Hillary e-mail investigation evidence to the Justice Department and Obama's girl Loretta Lynch 'decides' not to prosecute.

Obama makes a deal with Hillary to extract concessions from her when she wins the presidency in exchange for not letting the DOJ pursue charges. (One of these concessions possibly elevating Obama or his surrogates to positions in government.)

Some FBI people make a stink about it but it's quickly swept under the rug and not covered by a compliant mainstream media like the rest of the scandals.

Clinton wins the Democratic nomination.

Both Trump and Clinton run a slugfest campaign of slime- though Hillary's is more slick and polished, slicing Trump to ribbons.

A split and demoralized Republican electorate only partially comes out for Trump on election day while the Democrat drone machine all vote in lock step to sweep Hillary into the White House in November.

Obama might even be appointed to the Supreme Court by President H. Clinton.

Well, so far my predictions are holding up in sequence. I really hope I'm wrong.

[Nightshade]

And yet another piece falls into place:

http://www.bigstory.ap.org/article/4c9c ... nomination

Ugh. I really hope I'm wrong.

[callmeslick]

you're doing well so far, TB. You can already see the GOP coming apart even from the tepid support(see Ryan's comments this am), and Trump is wallowing around for a week looking worse by the day over the Judge comments, and holding panicked conference calls demanding his flunkies beat the issue further. I sweartogawd, a better surrogate to ensure Ms.Clinton's historic first female Presidency than Trump, I cannot imagine.

[Nightshade]

Looks like I'm right again:

The FBI hands off the Hillary e-mail investigation evidence to the Justice Department and Obama's girl Loretta Lynch 'decides' not to prosecute.

Obama makes a deal with Hillary to extract concessions from her when she wins the presidency in exchange for not letting the DOJ pursue charges. (One of these concessions possibly elevating Obama or his surrogates to positions in government.)

Some FBI people make a stink about it but it's quickly swept under the rug and not covered by a compliant mainstream media like the rest of the scandals.

.

A little twist on my prediction, but it was essentially right:

FBI Director James Comey on Tuesday announced the agency is not recommending the Justice Department bring charges against Hillary Clinton, while also denouncing the former secretary of state and her colleagues for the way they handled classified information through private email servers.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/f ... obe-225102

So yeah Trumptards- this is coming next:

Both Trump and Clinton run a slugfest campaign of slime- though Hillary's is more slick and polished, slicing Trump to ribbons.

A split and demoralized Republican electorate only partially comes out for Trump on election day while the Democrat drone machine all vote in lock step to sweep Hillary into the White House in November.

Obama might even be appointed to the Supreme Court by President H. Clinton.

[Krom]

Obama might even be appointed to the Supreme Court by President H. Clinton.

Unlikely, but it would be hilarious.

[callmeslick]

same prediction here:

[Nightshade]

same prediction here:

..and all courtesy of people like Woody.

[callmeslick]

as rare as it is that I agree with NS, the above is at least partly correct. Hillary would have likely been bumped out of the nomination, somehow, had the GOP nominated someone else. What sucks from my perspective is that I fear we'll now blunder along STILL with no real consensus on what we want our government to do, what we are all willing to pay for that level of government versus the responsibilities falling upon the individual. That debate could have(perhaps) gotten settled had you been looking at Cruz v Sanders or even substitute Kasich or Biden to the proper party. But, no, we'll have months of National Enquirer politics with one side being served by VERY slick professionals with loads of cash on hand. The outcome will likely prove little that will matter to the average citizen. More ennui, rinse, repeat.

[Ferno]

Obama might even be appointed to the Supreme Court by President H. Clinton.

Unlikely, but it would be hilarious.

It wouldn't be the first time that's happened.

[vision]

Hillary would have likely been bumped out of the nomination, somehow, had the GOP nominated someone else.

Should have been Jeb. I like that Jeb guy.

[woodchip]

same prediction here:

..and all courtesy of people like Woody.

There is a old saying, "Don't count your chickens before they are hatched". If you think because the FBI did not file charges, doing so may have been worse for her. By laying out what a liar she is, many well turn to Trump as the lesser of 2 evils. Keep pumping Hillary tho...

[callmeslick]

problem is, Woody, no one with any grey matter views Trump as the lesser. Plus, with Hillary literally carpet-bombing swing states(I see VA and PA markets, with my usual living spots)with REALLY effectiive ads, aimed at just that audience(those suburbanites uneasy with her, but wondering about Trump)she's going to define him clearly as an unstable, hateful danger to the public. She must have run the ad where Trump mocks the disabled guy, with narration from parents of some special needs child, a hundred times since July 3 on the Philly market airwaves. He's done. Period. The only question is how much of an overall debacle it is for the party down ballot.

[Nightshade]

Plus, with Hillary literally carpet-bombing swing states

Leaving little Hillary bombs of corruption, no doubt...

[callmeslick]

as far as anyone can tell, SHE is following the campaign finance rules.

[Nightshade]

Alright. I'll stick to my original prediction.

Clinton wins. I wager the two weeks.

[woodchip]

problem is, Woody, no one with any grey matter views Trump as the lesser. Plus, with Hillary literally carpet-bombing swing states(I see VA and PA markets, with my usual living spots)with REALLY effectiive ads, aimed at just that audience(those suburbanites uneasy with her, but wondering about Trump)she's going to define him clearly as an unstable, hateful danger to the public. She must have run the ad where Trump mocks the disabled guy, with narration from parents of some special needs child, a hundred times since July 3 on the Philly market airwaves. He's done. Period. The only question is how much of an overall debacle it is for the party down ballot.

The real debacle appears to be the Dem. party as it is imploding with all kinds of accusations. Good thing Hillary didn't win as she can't define a dam thing to any effect. And all that money wasted on the wrong kind of ads.