from the Atlantic

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Sun Jul 17, 2016 8:26 am

....the sobering reality that if you are poor at 20, you die poor.
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/yourlife ... li=BBnbfcL

Spidey · Post by **Spidey** » Sun Jul 17, 2016 9:23 am

And the point…or is this supposed to be news?

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Sun Jul 17, 2016 11:02 am

the extent of the gridlock was surprising to me. However, what ALWAYS surprises me is that the folks affected by this reality don't unite, but prefer to simply allow it to continue.

woodchip · Post by **woodchip** » Sun Jul 17, 2016 11:40 am

My take is the school systems are too geared to having their students go to college instead of teaching those who have no inclination for college to learn a trade. Whatever happened to things like industrial arts. I have a friend that owns a auto dealership. Care to guess how hard it is to find trained mechanics? He says it is at the point where the different auto dealership try to steal away each others mechanics. Schools don't understand that lots of kids don't need to learn history to be able to become a mechanic or a plumber. It would be far better for schools to work with trade unions instead of looking down on them and thinking the success of a school is how many students go to college.

Top Gun · Post by **Top Gun** » Sun Jul 17, 2016 12:14 pm

As a high school teacher, I quite honestly agree with you. I look at our numbers of "We send 98% of our graduating class to 4-year schools!", and then I look at the students actually in my classes, and I know there's no way in hell that 98% of them are going to be successful in a traditional college setting. A significant percentage of them are going to wind up sitting there in a few years with a load of debt and a degree they can't use, if they completed a degree at all.

Nightshade · Post by **Nightshade** » Sun Jul 17, 2016 1:25 pm

[removed]

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Sun Jul 17, 2016 2:24 pm

woodchip wrote:My take is the school systems are too geared to having their students go to college instead of teaching those who have no inclination for college to learn a trade.

what rock, or cloud of abject stupidity, do you live under? Within one generation or at most two, there will BE NO "TRADES" to speak of. NONE. Simply look at the amount of technical labor(trades) that is already mechanized or digitized and that is all technology in its infancy. Just because you know someone now, in 2016, who needs auto mechanics or plumbers, does not mean that there will be demand for those in 20 years. What sense would pushing fleets of people into jobs skills that are becoming obsolete serve society?

Spidey · Post by **Spidey** » Sun Jul 17, 2016 3:10 pm

Even robots need to be fixed, and quite frankly the notion that trades will become obsolete is ludicrous.

woodchip · Post by **woodchip** » Sun Jul 17, 2016 3:20 pm

I'm waiting to see any sign of robots in the const. trades and don't see any. Have to be a pretty sophisticated one to frame in a custom house. See any robots coming out to shingle your roof or repair that old leaky faucet? Let me know when you do. And people are not concerned about 20 years from now, they want jobs now.

Spidey · Post by **Spidey** » Sun Jul 17, 2016 3:29 pm

Anyway, many of the College prepped careers are going to be replaced with automation, way before the trades will. As woody points out, automation simply can't do many jobs, and won't be able to do so for many years.

I mean…lawyers could be replaced by robots tomorrow, as far as I’m concerned.

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Sun Jul 17, 2016 3:30 pm

wow, you all don't understand trajectory at all well, do you?

Spidey · Post by **Spidey** » Sun Jul 17, 2016 3:34 pm

Robots could replace teachers tomorrow as well...

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Sun Jul 17, 2016 3:51 pm

most jobs will be gone in 40 years, tops. All that will be left are positions for the most creative amongst us, in research, development, high tech maintenence, higher levels of education(computers can handle most lower level basic skills teaching), and extreme specialist professions such as medicine, or law or those multi-part manicures. What has to be done is to figure out the best path to get the citizenry onto to deal with this rapidly developing process. Thinking that we've just failed to train enough people for 20th century skills and professions would have been like my parents urging me to apprentice to a barrel maker.

woodchip · Post by **woodchip** » Sun Jul 17, 2016 4:50 pm

callmeslick wrote:wow, you all don't understand trajectory at all well, do you?

Since firing a rifle at a target at varying distances, I suspect Iunderstand trajectory better than you do.

vision · Post by **vision** » Sun Jul 17, 2016 8:46 pm

woodchip wrote:Since firing a rifle at a target at varying distances, I suspect Iunderstand trajectory better than you do.

You'll never shoot as well as a robot.

woodchip · Post by **woodchip** » Mon Jul 18, 2016 5:09 am

I see the military are now using all robots for snipers...or not.

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Mon Jul 18, 2016 5:29 am

give it time.

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Mon Jul 18, 2016 9:05 am

woodchip · Post by **woodchip** » Mon Jul 18, 2016 9:37 am

As with robots, give it time.

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Mon Jul 18, 2016 9:53 am

now, there, I agree completely. These things usually result in really bad choices that retrench the few, though, so an intelligent approach is necessary.

vision · Post by **vision** » Tue Jul 19, 2016 11:46 am

woodchip wrote:I see the military are now using all robots for snipers...or not.

Closer than you think, buddy.
.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/2009/04/23 ... niper.html

AI can already recognize some targets better than humans. Just need more training data.

woodchip · Post by **woodchip** » Tue Jul 19, 2016 12:02 pm

Reading your link, I see a human still has to control it. Let me know when it can do a HALO drop, climb a jungle covered mountain to get in position and then take the shot...all without human control. It will take a pretty sophisticated AI to do that. Then again do we want a AI brought into existence that can do that?

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Tue Jul 19, 2016 12:15 pm

it's a matter of time. Now, I've heard from Woody here, and one or two others, but collectively we're older. I'd love to hear what the younger(say sub 35 year olds) here feel about both the trajectory of automation and the effect on labor in the coming generation, because it is YOU and YOUR CHILDREN that will be the first affected.

woodchip · Post by **woodchip** » Tue Jul 19, 2016 12:31 pm

The question is slick, do we of any generation, want sophisticated AI's even being developed. If we do then how long before the AI's determine the world would be better of with no humans.

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Tue Jul 19, 2016 6:15 pm

woodchip wrote:The question is slick, do we of any generation, want sophisticated AI's even being developed.

very fair question, Woody. To which, I'll ask a followup: at what point, in the arc of history, has technology not been developed once the capability existed?

If we do then how long before the AI's determine the world would be better of with no humans.

another helluva question, without a knowable answer that I'm aware of. Damn, you're on a roll, I should just log off the board, go to VA house for the week and stop on a positive note. But, no, I'm going to wade into reading the political threads!

Ferno · Post by **Ferno** » Tue Jul 19, 2016 7:26 pm

Here's the thing, for those who think jobs like mechanics, autobody tradesman and the like will be around forever.

Robots will start fixing other robots. And some of those robots are becoming autonomous vehicles. So there won't be any taxi drivers, long-haul drivers, limo drivers, auto painters or even auto body technicians. Not to mention anything human-centric in regards to aviation, like commercial pilots, ground crew, support crew will also be a thing of the past.

Sure, there will be the odd human pilot and autobody tech, but they will be doing very specialized work, like one-off projects and charter flights for those who want other people to do it for them.

You are seeing the start of it happen right now. Ever see a roomba or a tesla?

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