electoral college histogram

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 6:54 am

this Princeton histogram has proven to be a VERY accurate barometer, and is based on state by state polling data. Let's leave this up so everyone can follow along. Woody might not like the current graph:
http://election.princeton.edu/todays-el ... histogram/

Tunnelcat · Post by **Tunnelcat** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 3:02 pm

All I can say is that the middle section of the country is not going to be a happy camper if Hillary wins the election.

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 3:25 pm

I have an inkling that some of that sea of red might not be as solid as Trump might think(or even current pollsters). It is hard to estimate the level of damage he is doing himself by attacking military men, or calling the military a 'shambles'. His running mates' voting record on issues near to vets is starting to resonate, it would seem, too.

Tunnelcat · Post by **Tunnelcat** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 3:46 pm

You do realize that Republicans love that flag waving and saber rattling with our already strong and advanced military, but then they kind of forget to fund anything that supports these people once they return home, like good jobs, housing and the inevitable mental or health care issues.

http://www.nationalhomeless.org/factshe ... erans.html

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 4:04 pm

I think the biggest shock is going to come in Texas, but suspect that a lot of the red midwest and a handful of southern states are in play. I can vouch that an anti-Trump PAC has enough cash to seriously damage him down there, and the Houston Chronicle just endorsed Hillary today.

woodchip · Post by **woodchip** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 4:21 pm

I seem to recall slick, you saying how all those anti-Trump ads were going to hurt him last month. Seem like just the opposite happened as Trump now leads in the national polls.

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 4:30 pm

so why do you think Clinton is now up by 9 percent in PA? Winning in NC, too and up by 11 percent in some VA polls(admittedly Kaine helped).

woodchip · Post by **woodchip** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 4:51 pm

Still not up in the national poll...in fact she's dropping like a rock. Lets not isolate a couple of states and say, "See, it's working".

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 5:14 pm

dropping like a rock? She was up by 7 in CNN/Ipsos finished polling on Wednesday, before the convention was over. Where do you get such claims from?

Ferno · Post by **Ferno** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 10:16 pm

callmeslick wrote:dropping like a rock? She was up by 7 in CNN/Ipsos finished polling on Wednesday, before the convention was over. Where do you get such claims from?

weekly world news
the globe
star
national equirer

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:41 am

Funny that you mention the National Enquirer. My dear spouse has a guilty pleasure of a subscription to that rag. It's owned by a personal friend of the Orange Baboon. Every single week for months, the front page has been screaming about pro-Trump, or suggesting Hillary must lose. Until, yesterday's issue, which had neither. Rather obviously so. My wife suggests that the readership, largely female has sent a message to the publisher with their subscriptions. She let hers lapse, and wondered how many other women have.........they keep sending her 'free' issues out of desperation.

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:46 am

note, dear readers, that the histogram will change, daily, when you click on it. A glance this morning shows that Trump almost has ZERO presence on the winning side of the bar, even less than yesterday......and, so it will continue.

woodchip · Post by **woodchip** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:22 am

callmeslick wrote:dropping like a rock? She was up by 7 in CNN/Ipsos finished polling on Wednesday, before the convention was over. Where do you get such claims from?

Stop with the onesy poll sources. I use RCP...just like you said to use when I would bring up a lone poll showing Trump ahead. I do see RCP now has Hillary Clinton up by 1 point so she got a bit of a bounce from the train wreck of a DNC convention. And if you look at the CNN poll they have Trump up by 3 points.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -5491.html

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:25 am

as I said, watch and wait. RCP as noted is fine, but is a lagging indicator, since it is a rolling poll. Shall we agree to revisit RCP, say, next week or maybe Labor Day. The Princeton poll, as opposed to the RCP rolling average, is a rolling average of STATE polls, and it is predictive of the Electoral College results. Cue the Dimwitted Donald to be calling for the abolition of that part of the Constitution soon.

woodchip · Post by **woodchip** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:32 am

Yeah, lets take a look late next week and see where the polls are. I see the IRS is now going to investigate the Clinton Foundation. Won't expect much other than it is another case where Hillary Clinton is being investigated. Wonder if the IRS will put Lois Lerner in charge.

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:35 am

watch and wait. That is, by the way, the William Clinton Foundation, so keep running against surrogates instead of the candidate.

woodchip · Post by **woodchip** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:37 am

No...it is the Clinton Crime Family Foundation.

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 7:55 am

more hate and lies. And, the polls keep coming:
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ ... li=BBnbcA1

thats a seven point swing in a week, and before this latest massive blunder by Trump.

Ferno · Post by **Ferno** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 9:52 am

It's interesting that you call trump a baboon. I don't know about you, but I don't think his nose is red enough, or his skin grey enough to be considered a baboon.

I find this to be a much more appropriate comparison

woodchip · Post by **woodchip** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 10:30 am

Slick, the week before Trump jumped up 6 points for the average. If you want select polls last week LA Times had Trump up almost 8 points over Hillary. Hillary has yet to show any legs from a convention bounce but we will have to wait until middle of this coming week. Until then stop trying to paint Hillary in a favorable light with these no name polls. Who the hell is Morning Consult.? This where you go for your dose of liberal fantasy?

vision · Post by **vision** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 12:40 pm

She's back on top of the RCP graph. That's not a good sign for him.

woodchip · Post by **woodchip** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:53 pm

And this is not a good sign for Hillary:

Seven Years Later, Recovery Remains the Weakest of the Post-World War II Era

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/07/ ... ar-ii-era/

Peoples pocketbooks have been depressed for a long time. If you think working people will vote for her you are sadly mistaken. Doesn't matter if you are a Dem, a Repub. or a independent, doesn't matter. People will look at Hillary as a extension of the present administration and vote Trump in hopes of getting ahead.

vision · Post by **vision** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 2:47 pm

woodchip wrote:If you think working people will vote for her you are sadly mistaken. Doesn't matter if you are a Dem, a Repub. or a independent, doesn't matter. People will look at Hillary as a extension of the present administration and vote Trump in hopes of getting ahead.

I know working people who are voting for Mrs Clinton and think Trump is a joke. Also, that non-article you linked to doesn't mention the fact that the post WWII US economy was abnormal, and our current growth is perfectly in line with the global economy, which from a broader perspective is better than it's ever been because for the first time in history smaller countries are seeing the benefits of technology and global trade. Extend the last eight years of economic policy? Yes, count me in.

woodchip · Post by **woodchip** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 3:51 pm

And I know a lot of blue collar Dems who are voting for Trump. Your point?

vision · Post by **vision** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 4:44 pm

woodchip wrote:And I know a lot of blue collar Dems who are voting for Trump. Your point?

My point is that the economy is not doomed under Obama nor Clinton if she extends his policies.

snoopy · Post by **snoopy** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 5:39 pm

callmeslick wrote:this Princeton histogram has proven to be a VERY accurate barometer, and is based on state by state polling data. Let's leave this up so everyone can follow along. Woody might not like the current graph:
http://election.princeton.edu/todays-el ... histogram/

To me, the election is coming down to voting for status quo vs. voting for something different than "the system." As such, I wouldn't be surprised if many of the traditional measures of who's ahead don't hold this time around... because if I were voting against "the political machine" I'd also see the whole polling thing as part of that machine. It's interesting to me that this time it's the Republicans that have the "change" theme that IMO won it for Obama eight years ago.

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 5:45 pm

snoopy wrote:It's interesting to me that this time it's the Republicans that have the "change" theme that IMO won it for Obama eight years ago.

Isn't it the same dynamic every time, the only difference being who the incumbent is?

snoopy · Post by **snoopy** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 5:55 pm

Vander wrote:
snoopy wrote:It's interesting to me that this time it's the Republicans that have the "change" theme that IMO won it for Obama eight years ago.
Isn't it the same dynamic every time, the only difference being who the incumbent is?

Maybe I haven't been paying attention long enough... but the above two feel different.

Obama really had people believing - not believing that the "Democrat" way was better, but believing that he wasn't going to do the traditional politics thing... that he really was going to come in and break down bipartisan walls and get everyone to work together to improve the country. Once he got into office that all went up in smoke, but for that first election that's what a lot of the swing votes thought they were buying.

This time around it's Trump's sacrilege for politics and politicians that has people enamored - the feel I get is that people will vote for him just because he represents a change from the same old stalemate... much in the way that they thought Obama represented a change from the status quo. My feel on this could be all wrong...

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:11 pm

except Obama articulated both specific ideas and an upbeat message. Trump is doing neither, and asking that he be trusted to fix things yet providing zero proof.

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Thu Aug 04, 2016 8:03 am

woodchip · Post by **woodchip** » Thu Aug 04, 2016 8:38 am

Curious you find a need to bump this like some lonesome George guy with a item to sell....hmm, on second thought you are selling something.

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Thu Aug 04, 2016 9:09 am

um, take your meds and put that into English. I think it's a good snapshot to have near the top of the page for a while. Selling nothing. Who's Lonesome George?? The last remaining Trump supporter?

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Fri Aug 05, 2016 11:24 am

we are officially seeing all outcomes landing on one side of the fence. Coincidentally, Trump is now pegged at less than 1 in 5 chance by Vegas. Probability odds went from 34 to 19 in ten days.

Foil · Post by **Foil** » Fri Aug 05, 2016 11:30 am

Be careful of "trend-chasing" or "bounce-chasing" when touting results soon after conventions. (That goes for both woody and slick.)

FiveThirtyEight has a pretty good discussion about models, and whether they should aggressively follow trends or not in this recent article.

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Fri Aug 05, 2016 11:42 am

I could counter cite the subtrends and demonstrate that this is more than a mere bounce. What you have here(and you are correct to say it may not hold, however, that is increasingly unlikely statistically), seems to be a typical good bounce followed by a well organized and set up pounce after setting the opposing candidate up with bait to prove your core character point. He fell for it, the Clinton crew pounced, and it's those swing state numbers that ought to sober any Trump supporter up. Hence the Princeton histograph, which takes into consideration the gamut of statistical possibilities, and further, pegs it to Electoral College outcome,which is the real game we are playing here.
As I stated when Kaine got picked, she is going for a blowout, executed a good convention, ad reachout going on aimed at Conservatives and Republicans(heavy in the Philly market, at least) is impressive, and while the Khan bait may have been a setup, it worked to a T, with Trump completely off game, off message and exuding the stench of loss already. I'm confident in the data like Princeton or RCP rolling average trends. Time will tell if misplaced......

woodchip · Post by **woodchip** » Sat Aug 06, 2016 8:15 am

callmeslick wrote:we are officially seeing all outcomes landing on one side of the fence. Coincidentally, Trump is now pegged at less than 1 in 5 chance by Vegas. Probability odds went from 34 to 19 in ten days.

And I see RCP has clinton capped out and Trump bottomed out. Yes lets see moar of those day after polls like they mean anything.

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Sat Aug 06, 2016 9:28 am

RCP makes no such assertion. That is your wishful thinking. Does Clinton prevail by 12 percent? Likely not, but she will win, easily and resoundingly.

woodchip · Post by **woodchip** » Sat Aug 06, 2016 9:29 am

Just look at the RCP graph Instead of bloviating.

callmeslick · Post by **callmeslick** » Sat Aug 06, 2016 9:31 am

so, I was right. He has stable figures for 24 hours. So what?

woodchip · Post by **woodchip** » Sat Aug 06, 2016 9:37 am

callmeslick wrote:so, I was right. He has stable figures for 24 hours. So what?

No, the DNC bounce has come to an end. Even you are bright enough to see that.