economic suicide

[callmeslick]

....and this is why I have a reinvestment meeting scheduled for tomorrow afternoon. Time to reposition a LOT of US holdings. Oh, and to those who say, 'look what Trump has done for the stock market": the US equities market has been reacting to solid economic/income/profit numbers(thank you President Obama for those, if anyone), combined with the original assumption that Trump would try to bring the divide together, not trigger a Civil War, which seems to be the current intent. Prepare for a bit of a selloff, especially for any equity that is a US firm with international markets.

edit-wrong article

this:http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ ... li=BBnbfcN

now, over my time here, I have had one or two folks asking for investment advice. I've been sort of reluctant to urge any of them towards anything all that strongly, but generally caution towards balance, and avoidance of risk you cannot afford. I'll give this much, publicly, right now:

Get the Hell out of US markets, or at least divest any topheavy dependance upon them if you have enough assets to afford risk on a chunk. This MF'er is about to roll off a cliff, I am getting more certain by the minute.

[Spidey]

Sounds like a self-fulfilling prophecy if I ever heard one.

[callmeslick]

wouldn't that entail my somehow controlling the economy, or at least the equity markets? I do neither.

[Spidey]

Don’t be silly, the term self-fulfilling prophecy applies to a group as well as a person.

[woodchip]

Just more Trump fear mongering. DJ's hit a record high of over 20k. Yeah, Trump is ruining the market.

[Ferno]

Do you have a shrine built for the guy, or what? Is he your personal jesus? a ★■◆●ing no-nothing trying to tell someone who's had experience with investments that it's 'fear mongering'.

[callmeslick]

...and, who's offering honest advice, Ferno, to boot!

[Jeff250]

Sounds like a self-fulfilling prophecy if I ever heard one.

It's worse than that because not only does the market fulfill its own prophecies, but it creates a feedback loop where people upon hearing that the prophecy is being fulfilled are further encouraged to invest in a way that will fulfill the prophecy. Hence bubbles. Only time will tell if the post Trump election surge is a bubble.

[callmeslick]

If it weren't for Trump, I would say it is NOT a bubble, but an expectation of the income and profit jump from anticipated transitions to an automated industrial economy. What Trump adds to the mix is a MASSIVE amount of uncertainty as to the role or prominence of the US in that process. We did have a lead position, until about a week or so ago. Today, not so clear that is the case, and it is uncertainty that leads to markets going into the tank. I think, for instance, that Asia especially, but also others, are QUITE poised to take the mantle from us. That a certain segment of our populace is glad to let them have dominance over the next major economic development is rather disheartening as an American. As an investor, it just means I spent the late morning and early afternoon liquidating about 60% of my US equities and placing them into a mix of domestic short term bonds, emerging market equities and global tech equities, with about a 25% temporary cash position. I'll be damned if Trump is going to impoverish me and my heirs, if I can prevent it.

[Spidey]

Nah, probably more like this….

1. Create panic in one sector
2. Wait till stock prices fall
3. Buy stock
4. End panic
5. Wait till stock recovers
6. Make out like a bandit

[Tunnelcat]

Maybe we need to prep for inflation too.

As for U.S. equities, no sense in selling them at all, if you're a long term investor that is. Besides, the capital gains right now would be horrendous if you were to dump out of this already hyper-inflated market.

[callmeslick]

Nah, probably more like this….

1. Create panic in one sector
2. Wait till stock prices fall
3. Buy stock
4. End panic
5. Wait till stock recovers
6. Make out like a bandit

that's a pretty routine ruse. That's going on ALL the time, even when broader market indices are flat. I see something far worse, and have sound reasons for thinking so. Your mileage may vary, but I made a serious adjustment today and feel far more secure.

[callmeslick]

Maybe we need to prep for inflation too.

As for U.S. equities, no sense in selling them at all, if you're a long term investor that is. Besides, the capital gains right now would be horrendous if you were to dump out of this already hyper-inflated market.

that was sort of my trick today, TC. Inflated cap gains. Luckily , I had a few underperformers that needed weeding out of the portfolio to offset, so less of a total hit. Recent gains since Sept have been impressive. Cashing in should be done, anyway, tax be damned. Having cash on hand to pick up the pieces down the road should be a slow accumulation process, not some rushed thing.
Oh, and I pretty much define 'long term investor' as my whole investment goal involves income, slow growth and moderate risk. It is, to be honest, a perfect time to trim inflated equites for a profit, and reinvest in lagging markets and sectors. What is sad is that, over a 350 year span, we've always been solely or almost exclusively invested in the US. I've always resisted offshoring cash or portfolios, and until today never had any money in businesses or currencies that were not US-centered. I've haven't taken such a large cash position since 2008, either. I don't worry about markets easily, and my primary advisor is one the best in the nation, and we both agreed along with the rest of the team that it is moving time for some US assets.

[Ferno]

...and, who's offering honest advice, Ferno, to boot!

You'd be surprised how often I hear that, from friends and strangers alike.

I've been down the road that a lot of people don't go down. I've seen how badly people can treat each other. I've been the angry young white man facing no future. In a parallel universe, I might have ended up being a hardline trump supporter had I not had others help me up and shown me that it would be okay.

And I bet that REALLY pisses off both woodchip and thunderbunny. Because i'm in the trenches, doing an 8 hour shift, working my tail off, seeing how things are and I'm not a trumpette. They want me to be their enemy, but I'm not.

You're an easier target for them because they look at you like you're some lofty leftist detached-from-reality banker who's screwed them out of their cushy life. Too bad for them, I know how they operate and I know their playbook.

[callmeslick]

the irony is, the only ones who ever screwed them out of any deserved rewards for work was THEM, via the ballot box. If you keep voting for the people who've been screwing you, and blaming 'leftists' and 'elitists' while they do it, it sort of becomes a 'fool me once, shame on you' sort of thing by the time you fall for the scam ten or more times. Gee, who'd imagine that the guy in the gold penthouse grabbing pussy wasn't laser focused on their well-being?

[Ferno]

But he promised the jobs would come back!

Yeah, what sucks is those jobs are never coming back. They've been replaced by outsourcing and robots. So what they should do instead of joining a fascist movement is figure out what else they can do, go to school and get educated in that. Can they fix old tractors? Outstanding! We need that kind of skillset. But instead of old tractors, they can learn how to fix either robotractors or aircraft. They could have even applied for scholarships (protip: banks want you to apply because it makes them money) grants or even a bank loan to do it. Whatever new job they train for is almost guaranteed to pay better than what they used to do. Reap the rewards of hard work!

But no. they decided to be lazy.

[callmeslick]

and, the absolute WORST thing they could do is isolate the US economy while slashing the entire concept of a social safety net. Yet, that's what some idiots voted for, knowingly? It would be really easy for me to sit back and go, "sucks to be them!", as a growing number of my peers have been doing. I sort of like the idea of a different society than that leads to.



Oh, and during your "vacation", Ferno, I posted a couple threads around the coming 4th Industrial revolution, it's global nature and the speed at which we're entering it. If you have the time.......

[Ferno]

Links? They look to be kind of buried.

[callmeslick]

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=23464

[callmeslick]

and the vultures circle:
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ ... li=BBnbfcN