President Ryan

[Vander]

I have a hard time imagining Trump finishing out the year as President for any number of reasons. It could be investigations by Mueller or Congress, it could be the emoluments lawsuit that just got filed (I don't see a path for Trump to get on the right side of the constitution without leaving office), it could even be that Trump simply gets tired of all the work. It could be the weight of all of the above.

That gets me wondering how well Pence is firewalled from Trump. If Trump does end in a yard sale, does Pence go with him? The most I can see so far is that he was head of the transition team which produced a lot of the current smoke. He's publicly made inaccurate statements, but they weren't under oath.

I imagine it's someone's job right now to ensure there is some distance between Pence and Trump, if only for contingency planning.

So, since most here think Trump probably won't finish out his term, what do you think is the likelihood Pence goes down with him? Will we see a President Ryan?

[Tunnelcat]

Since Pence just lawyered up yesterday, I'm betting he's mired in this mess up to his armpits.

[Vander]

I wouldn't say that. Pence is walking a legal mine field. Obtaining a lawyer doesn't mean you've stepped on a mine, lawyers also help guide you around the mines. It's an utterly prudent action if he has nothing to do with any Trump shenanigans.

There are a lot of ways I can see Trump leaving office that don't appear to involve Pence.

[Tunnelcat]

Michael Flynn. What did Pence know about his Turkish connections, Flynn's talks with the Russian ambassador and the timeline surrounding Flynn's eventual firing? I'd say that's going to be Pence's legal minefield if he lied about his knowledge of things anywhere along the line.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/18/politics/ ... index.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... story.html

[Vander]

As far as I know, it hasn't been suggested that Pence was involved in anything Flynn was doing. His involvement appears to have been on the due diligence end of bringing in the president's choice for NSA on while acting as head of the transition. He may have known about it, (congress did alert him about Flynn in November) but I don't think that ties Pence to Flynn in any legally binding way. Did he have a legal obligation to report? His obfuscation and/or dissembling in media interviews won't put him in any legal jeopardy.

I don't think Pence has been interviewed in any legal setting, so he still seems to have the option of jumping ship relatively cleanly if/when that time comes. Of course, this is all based on the reporting currently available.

[callmeslick]

I tend to adhere to the 'walking a minefield and hiring guides' theory regarding Pence. However, like so much of this, I think Flynn holds the key. It is really clear that Trump was VERY uneasy about any vigourous pursuit of Flynn. Why? Given that Pence was leading the group making the cabinet picks and all, he has real liability depending on WHAT he knew and didn't act upon.


That said, I'd give Trump a good chance to make it until the next election cycle, which I am sensing that Republicans fear most of all. If 2018 turns into a Trump referendum or specifically an IMPEACHMENT referendum, given the current public sentiment(2/3 feel there is some crime being hidden), they have a real problem on their hands. Pence, oddly enough, might be an earlier casualty, due to attempted sacrifices for Trump himself. Ryan has acted oddly, but still might be President for at least a while before 2020.

[Krom]

Ryan acting oddly is because Ryan isn't really all that clever in the first place. Tripping over his own political foot is quite in character for the kind of republican that still pushes trickle down economics is 2017.

[Vander]

I tend to think Trump wanted investigators to back off Flynn more out of loyalty than CYA, not that that makes any difference in terms of obstruction. I think Flynn came in and ingratiated himself to Trump. Gave him guidance, sort of a NatSec mentor. He checked a lot of the boxes Trump seems to like: he resonated with the electorate Trump was targeting, he had a serious demeanor and aura of authority, he was a forceful speaker, he was a general, he was fired by Obama. I think Trump really misses Flynn being around, and not necessarily because Flynn might expose some Trump wrong doing.

At least, thats the impression I get. I could be wrong.

Ryan acting oddly is because Ryan isn't really all that clever in the first place. Tripping over his own political foot is quite in character for the kind of republican that still pushes trickle down economics is 2017.

Pretty much. Ryan acts weird because people who fetishize Ayn Rand are weird.

[callmeslick]

Vander, you may well be right, time will tell.