OPEC, Euros and you.

Fusion pimp · Post by **Fusion pimp** » Mon Oct 11, 2004 12:23 pm

Well, not you, but your money.

http://home.hiwaay.net/%7Ebecraft/IraqWarFRN.pdf

Birdseye · Post by **Birdseye** » Mon Oct 11, 2004 12:32 pm

I actually mentioned this a few months back. Taking over Iraq will slow the possibility of this happening.

Top Gun · Post by **Top Gun** » Mon Oct 11, 2004 12:36 pm

"Yeah! Teh war was about OIL!!!11"

Fusion pimp · Post by **Fusion pimp** » Mon Oct 11, 2004 12:40 pm

Topgun,
I suggest you read it instead of poking fun. I'm not suggesting the war is about oil, I could care less. I'm suggesting that if OPEC switches to the EU, we've got money troubles ahead.

B-

Birdseye · Post by **Birdseye** » Mon Oct 11, 2004 1:27 pm

It's a really great read and I'm glad you brought it up, Barry.

I had been harping on this for awhile, but people ignore what I say ;p

Plus with the deficit going up and up, our money is going to have trouble staying even at current exchange rates.

Top Gun · Post by **Top Gun** » Mon Oct 11, 2004 2:02 pm

I did read through it, and I do understand the implications. While I did get the distinct vibe from it suggesting that my last post was true, it was just a joke

. Hopefully, as the world's leading petroleum consumer, we can continue to exert enough economic influence to prevent the chain of events the article describes from occurring.

Vander · Post by **Vander** » Mon Oct 11, 2004 2:07 pm

I didn't read the pdf Barry posted, but I did read and save the earlier article Brian posted a while back. I can repost if anyone wants. It's pretty long.

Ford Prefect · Post by **Ford Prefect** » Mon Oct 11, 2004 4:27 pm

Since the world economy depends to a large part on the health of the U.S. ecomomy I can't see a big rush to convert oil sales to Euros. That would be shooting yourself in the foot on the part of the OPEC states. It is certainly true however that the U.S. trade deficit is a huge problem that will at some time cause major upheaval, what the tripwire will be is anyone's guess.

Will Robinson · Post by **Will Robinson** » Mon Oct 11, 2004 4:34 pm

Oil is already up something like 60% in the last 6 months or so. I get the impression that if they made the switch right now with oil overvalued as it is we wouldn't be hit that hard. I say that because
[warning economic theory based on a wild ass guess]
I'm anticipating a drop in oil so if the two happened at the same time it would lessen the sting somewhat.

Also they said part of the negative impact of the potential change is that the U.S economy is weak...well they better hurry because it looks like it's on the slow steady climb right now.

It would be a big bump in the economic road if it all happens according to their worst case scenario but the market can absorb anything, people will adjust and life will go on at a higher cost...like it does anyway.

I would be more concerned about the inevitable rising cost of extracting oil before worrying too much about the possible hit to the dollars value. When oil costs too much to take out of the ground the whole worlds economy will tumble, not just the U.S.

Will Robinson · Post by **Will Robinson** » Mon Oct 11, 2004 5:59 pm

After reading some more on the subject I'd say just ignore my post above. I wasn't really understanding the trade deficit and how it would weigh us down like cement boots on a swimmer.

So when do we hit Iran?

Zuruck · Post by **Zuruck** » Tue Oct 12, 2004 1:15 pm

I also saved Birds' link into my computer and I show it to people who don't think the war was about oil and the stuff they don't know about. If everyone switched to the Euro, then our dollar becomes just about worthless, now we can't have that can we?

Birdseye · Post by **Birdseye** » Tue Oct 12, 2004 2:05 pm

Switching to the euro would hardly make the dollar worthless, but it would certainly have a detrimental effect on us.

I also don't think it was cause enough for war, but it certainly was in their "plus column"

One good reason the euro-dollar issue not being the reason for war would be that in other ways the administration is so fiscally irresponsible I can hardly see them going for this issue as a main reason. I can't see them thinking "hey let's attack Iraq to help the weakening dollar" as they weaken the dollar through massive deficits.