Terra's Future is Bleak In Our Lifetime?

[Iceman]

Food for thought :

At present there are 6 billion people on this earth. It is estimated that by 2015 there will be 7 billion and that by 2030 there will be 9 BILLION PEOPLE ON EARTH.

I have serious reservations as to the ability of mother earth to support such a population :

* How will the food supply possibly support that many people? Will we come up with some new technology to enhance our ability to provide it or will we wage war after war to take the supply of others?

* How will the refuse and waste disposal and sewage treatment for so many people be accomplished? Will we be overrun in garbage and excrement or will we find some magic technology to eliminate it all?

* Our current energy supply cannot possibly support all those people. Are we going to fight for the energy we need or will we find some new exotic energy source to solve the problem? Maybe it is all about the oil ...

Your Thoughts?

http://www.manilatimes.net/national/200 ... 2opi6.html

If fertility stayed at the same level it is now, the world population would be 134 trillion people in 300 years.

http://www.prisonplanet.com/analysis_la ... ental.html

We are already killing the oceans and spoiling the atmosphere. Demographic projections vary widely but it can be conservatively estimated that the global population will approach nine billion by the year 2030. Few believe the planet can carry nine billion without global catastrophe: famine, disease, widespread extinctions that could even include mankind.

http://www.peopleandplanet.net/doc.php?id=2121

The experts point out, however, that even tiny variations from the two-child norm can have huge consequences over the long-term. â??As little as one-quarter of a child under the two-child norm, or one-quarter of a child above the norm, results in a world population ranging from 2.3 billion (in the low variant) to 36.4 billion (in the high variant) by 2300.â?

[Stryker]

Compound seemingly small decimal numbers with long expanses of time and you'll get big, scary numbers.

Personally, I don't think we're in much danger. The US alone can produce enough food to feed most of the earth as it is; if some certain african/european countries would get off their duffs and learn to farm efficiently there'll be more than enough food. The US supposedly burns half its crops anyways.

Refuse and waste disposal? Think of it this way: there's 6 people in a building. Now increase that number to 7, or even 9. The results aren't staggeringly horrifying.

As for our energy supply, the sooner we start learning to build more efficient wind/solar power stations the better. Energy is really the primary concern. However, we know that the earth still has huge oil reserves. If we switch our primary method of automobile propulsion to fuel cells, we should be fine in that respect.

Of course, that's never going to happen. OPEC would veto such a proposal vehemently, since that would decrease the amount of oil being sold drastically, and thus, the amount per barrel they could charge for oil. OPEC pretty much controls the purse strings for a lot of the US economy, which is scary. If they see something they really don't like (switching to fuel cell-powered cars), we'll be up the creek without a paddle (or gas for the boat engine, whichever way you want to look at it). Course if we'd been drilling in Alaska right now, things wouldn't be quite this serious--but as it is, OPEC has a scary amount of control over the US economy.

[WarAdvocat]

Compound seemingly small decimal numbers with long expanses of time and you'll get big, scary numbers.

Compound seemingly small genetic changes with long expanses of time and you'll get evolution

Back on topic, the numbers look scary but even if the status quo was maintained in technology, farming etc, we can probably easily sustain the numbers we're looking at in our lifetime.

Of course, given that the state of the art seems to be advancing faster than the population is increasing, things actually look rather hopeful.

The thing to worry about is logistical bottlenecks. IE: Yeah, we have the food/energy/etc but we can't get it to where it is needed.

THAT could be what triggers Armageddon...

[Lobber]

Jehovah's Kingdom government will solve all those problems. There is nothing to worry about.

[JMEaT]

Anyone who has ever watched Futurama already knows that the Earth is gonna turn out OK.

[Buef]

http://lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

Do some research on Peek Oil.

This has been covered here before, so I will not go back into it.

[WarAdvocat]

#1 'peak oil'

#2 Suprisingly enough, alcohol, which can be made cheaply indeed, can be substituted for oil in any fuel application, with very minor modifications to engines. Better yet, it burns 'clean'.

#3 Doom. GLOOM. GLOBAL RIOTING!! OH NO!!! ARMAGEDDON!

[kurupt]

how exactly will that happen lobber?

[Mobius]

Lobber is clearly a grade A nutcase - thank goodness what he thinks means precisely nothing.

No one knows what's going to happen in the future - this we know. Whether mankind survives this century is the crux of the matter. I'm not talking about if mankind actually still exists in 2100AD - I'm talking about if we're still advancing technologically at that date. Because if we are NOT, then we'll be a sorry species indeed, nurning cow dung on our open fires, and riding bicycles everywhere.

9 Billion is not a critical mass of people on this planet, and I'm sure it's possible (if not comfortable) to support 20 billion people on Earth.

The most important point for me is that we get OFF Earth. All eggs, one basket.

Of course, life on Earth is set to change dramtically in the next 100 years. There'll be tsunami's that kill tens of millions of people at a time. There'll be earthquakes that kill similar numbers. Desertification will render large areas utterly uninhabitable. Global warming will have some unpredictable results, and you can bet the weather is going to become more extreme.

Whether we have the will and the ability to fix the problems we have created (and will create) is a different story. Currently, the USA is looking like the world's worst policeman: pre-emptive wars with no basis in fact, rejection of Kyoto, a crazy legal system, stupid IP laws, the worst performance in math and science in the western world, the rise of idiot creationist and christian fundamentalist views, and a budget deficit your grandchildren will still be paying for. So we won't be looking to the USA to lead us out of the trouble we're going to be in.

In many ways the future looks gloomy, but in many others it's never looked better - it all depends on what viewpoint you take.

Personally, I'm inclined to be optimistic, simply because a pessimistic view would suggest you should commit suicide now - to avoid the rush later.

Humanity is at a crux point, or shortly will be. We'll achieve true dominance over the planet, using the technology we'll develop, or we'll sink back into the mire of also-rans that evolution has tossed up over the last billion years.

I prefer to think we'll progress to the point where we can pass the torch of evolution onto the next paradigm evolution will use to progress itself. How much of our own culture, spirit, and love of life goes along for the ride will be decided within the next 50 years.

Defintiely, the long term prognosis for biological humans is poor, but our descendants will rule the galaxy, if no one else steps in to stop them.

[Avder]

Mobius, shut up. Nobody likes you.

[Testiculese]

I don't see how this planet can support 20 billion. We're destroying it quite fast enough with only 6. 20 billion? That comes at the expense of every other animal on the planet. We, and domesticated animals that we tend, will be the only things left. This is why, when I hear about thousands dead of something, I don't care for the most part. Individually, it's a shame. I wouldn't wish it on anybody(except ppl like Ashcroft). But in the long run, the less humans, the better.

I agree tho' that Lobber is a Class A nut Jehovah's Kingdom government has a pretty piss-poor record as of yet.

[ccb056]

Hmmm, sounds like a bunch of leftist propoganda.
I seriously doubt that the ★■◆● will hit the fan any time soon, IE within the next 100 years.
BTW, global warming doesn't exist, it's just a myth.

[DCrazy]

BTW, global warming doesn't exist, it's just a myth.

Can: [==|_
Worms: ~~~ ~~ ~~~~

[Testiculese]

Apparently ccb doesn't understand anything about Venus.

[TheCops]

Apparently ccb doesn't understand anything about Venus.

or the fact that nature pays no mind to the human race and it's silly politics.-----

[fliptw]

the Earth's more than capable.

note the amount of you food you throw out, and thats 90% domestic origin.

The current global economic model, is incapable of it.

The real issue is the imposition of First World lifestyles on the rest of the populace, thats where the politco-numerics get stupid.

Or, more correctly, the earth can't support the cattle needed for 12 billion First World citizens.

[Lothar]

Lobber is clearly a grade A nutcase

Of course, life on Earth is set to change dramtically in the next 100 years. There'll be tsunami's that kill tens of millions of people at a time. There'll be earthquakes that kill similar numbers. Desertification will render large areas utterly uninhabitable. Global warming will have some unpredictable results, and you can bet the weather is going to become more extreme.

Whether we have the will and the ability to fix the problems we have created (and will create) is a different story. Currently, the USA is looking like the world's worst policeman: pre-emptive wars with no basis in fact, rejection of Kyoto, a crazy legal system, stupid IP laws, the worst performance in math and science in the western world, the rise of idiot creationist and christian fundamentalist views, and a budget deficit your grandchildren will still be paying for. So we won't be looking to the USA to lead us out of the trouble we're going to be in.

Mr. Pot, you have a call on line 2 from Dr. Kettle.

9 Billion is not a critical mass of people on this planet, and I'm sure it's possible (if not comfortable) to support 20 billion people on Earth.

Actually it's both possible *and* comfortable, as long as we're using comfort standards different from those in the currently developed world. Personal transportation will have to change dramatically, and other modes of energy consumption will, as well. But yes, the world can sustain 9 billion or even 20 billion people without huge difficulties.

To answer Iceman's original question: first, it's interesting to note that "9 billion by 2030" is significantly less than the 15 billion by 2030 people used to predict. It's nice to see the general community figuring out what any first-year student of population dynamics can calculate -- population is on its way to levelling out in the 8-12 billion range.

In terms of food supply, there's plenty for well over 8-12 billion people. Transportation can be a problem, but it's significantly less so in areas that have stable governments. People don't starve due to a lack of food in the world -- people starve due to wars that create refugees, and world bodies that do a bad job of delivering food or keeping the peace.

In terms of waste disposal, clearly, American standards of "throw all your clothes away every 6 months because there's a new style" can't continue. We must move toward more recycling.

In terms of energy, there are a number of promising technologies that just haven't gotten off the ground yet because oil is still more cost-effective. See this DBB thread on peak oil from last March for more details. (Oh, and the next person who posts lifeaftertheoilcrash.net as a source is implicitly giving me permission to ridicule them for at least a week straight. That site is a joke.)

[Beowulf]

Mobius, I assure you, the most important point for me is that you get off this planet as well.

You're idiots...the fact is the universe and Earth will always go on regardless of humans. We mean nothing in the grand scope.

[Genghis]

I used to worry about how we're leaving the earth for future generations, but in reality I do not know how many future generations we can count on before the Lord returns.

Mobius, shut up. Nobody likes you.

I'm pretty sure I'm the only one here that likes Mobius. Still, one > nobody!

In the long run, we will be extinct. It's just a matter of whether that happens in 1,000, 10,000, or 1,000,000 years. But don't sweat it; if you read enough Stephen Baxter your biggest concern becomes whether there's any life in the universe at all at timelike infinity, be it human or otherwise. Nothing more depressing than a universe without life.

[Mr. Perfect]

Anyone who has ever watched Futurama already knows that the Earth is gonna turn out OK.

Word. Thought there will be a brief rulling by large carrots.

[XeonJr]

1 name Nikoli Tesla
2 words.. FREE ENERGY

www.lutec.com.au

Going to buy 2 of these generators and get off the grid and a smaller one for an electric car

[Genghis]

Yay, perpetual motion machines!

[Jeff250]

I don't know about you guys, but I'm looking forward to a long and prosperous life.

[Sage]

SOILENT GREEN IS PEOPLE!

[Vlider]

death is the only way to this answer.

if you look at earth from an over view... things that happen over time from wars to the mass suicide with the people chasing comets and $hit...

sad but true, the tsunami incident...9/11...
in the end that's what it solves...

its just the cycle of life....some must move on and room is made for new life.... just like the dinosaurs... to the human race...

hell probably after us there will be roach men walking around in 2 piece suits with brief cases heh.

[Top Gun]

What's with all of the apocalyptic posts recently? You people watching too many cheesy disaster movies, like Armageddon and Deep Impact?

Seriously, though, it's nice to know that Lothar's always around to throw a nice bucket of common sense on the fires of idiocity.

[Flabby Chick]

Like Mobius said, eventually by hook or by crook the planet will not be here. The only way to keep on keepin' on is by getting off.

[[]V[]essenjah]

BLABDYBLABDYBLAAAAAH!! THEY SKY IS FALLING THE SKY IS FALLING!! HOLY FREAKING BOOGERS!! THE SKY IS GONNA FALL AND SQUASH ME LIKE PIE!!



Everyday, you will hear ★■◆● like this. I heard last weekend that here in Idaho, we were supposed to get hte biggest snow storm since the late 1940's. People were expecting 6 feet of snow. It was all over the news on every channel. People bought the store shelves clean. When I went in on Monday, there was no water, no bread, no produce, everything was cleaned out. It was like that in a larger town just across the lake from me.


We got a couple of flurries that gave us a couple of inches of snow. Boo hoo. Everyone was getting out of work, schools closed down, the whole nine yards for a couple of snow flurries and some wind.

That is why we, the smart people, bought some meat, some potatoes, picked up a movie and spent a nice, quiet evening at home as always.

There is really nothing that most of us can do. You can't stop human nature. If it is meant to happen, then it will happen on it's own, so lets enjoy our time here. You could also walk outside tommorow to get struck by lightning, get hit by a car, end up in a plane or train crash, have a meteor land on your head.

I probably won't find my other half. I somehow doubt it at this point, but I'm not going to go commit suicide either. Maybe in the next existence. But, if I do find that person, I will surely marry them and have as many kids as I feel like is ment to be as well.

So, us, the nerds, need to focus on getting all 20 billion people to play Descent and have a big LAN party before it all goes down?

[Fezzik]

Pff. I've got bigger problems to worry about. I turn 30 next week.

[roid]

Political journalists will tell you we're all gonna die.

Science journalists will tell you things are gonna be great.

neither having an understanding of eachother's fields:
which would you believe.

Mobius, shut up. Nobody likes you.

says the ant

[Robo]

Like Mobius said, eventually by hook or by crook the planet will not be here. The only way to keep on keepin' on is by getting off.

x2

[Flabby Chick]

Pff. I've got bigger problems to worry about. I turn 30 next week.

LOL, you and your mother sunshine, i turn 39 on wednesday.


EDIT: Its a local expression, not intended to offend.

[TheCops]

Pff. I've got bigger problems to worry about. I turn 30 next week.

LOL, you and your mother sunshine, i turn 39 on wednesday.


EDIT: Its a local expression, not intended to offend.

awww, c'mon you guys.

just because pop culture is marketed to 12-24 year olds doesn't mean your life is over.

[Buef]

(Oh, and the next person who posts lifeaftertheoilcrash.net as a source is implicitly giving me permission to ridicule them for at least a week straight. That site is a joke.)

No kidding, using a website-ad as a 'source' is almost as bad as forming an opinion on a book based on an ad.

There are lots of opinionated blurbs and likely wrong information in the book, but there is also knowledge to be gained.

Yes, I own the book and have read it cover to cover, and while I am still looking forward to my daughter's growing up, I am more aware of conservation, and thats a good thing right?

[Top Gun]

Like Mobius said, eventually by hook or by crook the planet will not be here. The only way to keep on keepin' on is by getting off.

I seriously doubt that it will happen anytime soon. How about we try to fix up this place before giving up completely on it? And besides, why should the human race continue on into eternity? Ever think that we might be meant to end some day?

Mobius, I highly suggest you read C.S. Lewis's Space Trilogy, particularly That Hideous Strength. Yes, it is religious allegory, but it also contains some great messages about this particular topic, namely about the blind drive for self-preservation of the human race above anything else.

[ccb056]

Hmm, I wonder which will happen first, Social Security going bankrupt or the ice caps melting. I'm taking bets.

[Lothar]

Like Mobius said, eventually by hook or by crook the planet will not be here. The only way to keep on keepin' on is by getting off.

"eventually" can be an awful long time. "Holy crap, the earth is going to die in like 3 or 4 billion years, we better start planning!"

I own the book and have read it cover to cover, and while I am still looking forward to my daughter's growing up, I am more aware of conservation, and thats a good thing right?

It's good that you're more aware of conservation. But the ends do not always justify the means. In this case, the means are unjustified fear-mongering websites and books that you really shouldn't trust.

There are much better ways to become more aware of conservation. For example: read my posts on this subject. Talk to scientists in your area. Have discussions with people with a clue.

There are also much better things you can do than panic. Consider investing in technology...

[Mr. Perfect]

TEH WORLD IS GOING TO END!!!1!one

[XeonJr]

Social sec has been bankrupt for years
You Lose!

[Flabby Chick]

Of course it's going to take a long time, but whats wrong with planning ahead. It's like starting a pension plan in your fifties.