Just another Manic Sunday?

[Gooberman]

I think if this sunday fails in Iraq, it will be very hard to salvage "the mission." Everything seems to be riding on it. On the other hand, I think success is more likely then failure for this election. What say you?

[Vander]

Define "success."

[Gooberman]

I can't. But failure would have parts of having polling places blown up. The winner soon being assassinated. Major groups boycotting the election. etc

Success would include the majority having faith that the winner was legitimate. And that they want him in office in the first place. That the iraqis use the podeum to show that they do want democracy.

You know it can't be defined rigorously. There are too many variables. So I guess its up to you.

Afghanistan: Success
Ukraine: Failure

[DCrazy]

I'm pretty confident that the election will be a success. Whether the new government will be effective and self-sufficient remains to be seen.

[Lothar]

The elections are, clearly, what everything else is built on. If the elections go very well, the mission goes very well; if the elections go very badly, the mission is in trouble (salvageable, but not easily.) But there's a vast gray area in between. What if they go moderately well? Somewhat badly? Neutrally?

I think the elections are going to go moderately, though not extremely, well -- and this will lead to the formation of a fairly reasonable government by next year, and the reduction of US troop presence as the insurgency dies out and Iraqis begin to take control of their own security. If they don't go quite so well, of course, it gets to be more difficult to form the government and more troops have to be in place for longer.

[Vander]

I'm not very optimistic, but hopefully I'll be pleasantly surprised.

[Lothar]

Afghanistan: Success
Ukraine: Failure

From what I understand, the Ukraine elections are now a success, even though they went through some very-near-failure moments. Did I miss some important news, or are you just referring to the fact that they went through the whole poisoning / fraud thing before finally electing the right leader?

[Will Robinson]

I think the fact that they are holding an election where Saddam doesn't already know he's getting 100% of the vote ahead of time is a pretty good start.
The fact that recent polling shows the turnout will be similar if not better than the U.S. turnout is pretty good.

Imagine what the turnout would be here if we had roving bands of terrorists trying to kill people who even looked like they may vote!

I think if they get close to 50% and the winner isn't Saddam then it's a big success. Will it be a lasting success is the real question.

[woodchip]

There are something like 4000 polling stations. If terrorii manage to perform their daily average of 10 a day bombings...isn't going to stop a large percentage of the population from voting. I see something similar to the Afgan vote i.e. a resounding success. The Iraqi people know that Sunday is the cusp...either to not vote and let the thugs win or vote and make themselves the winner.

[Vander]

I hope there are more than 4000 polling stations. 15,000,000 eligible voters divided by 4000 = 3500+ people at each polling station.

[bash]

If the recent election in Afghanistan has taught us anything, it's that the success of an election is inversely proportional to the number of positive news stories that appear about it in the MSM.

On a serious note, the fact that the election is even being held marks a great success. It also carries the implication to the Iraqis that they'll be almost completely on their own *real soon now* and America/Britain/Australia/etc. can now begin implimenting withdraw plans. This marks the point where we've got to let them work out their growing pains on their own. The two Gulf wars have demonstrated that we can get anywhere in a hurry from domestic bases if need be. Although I'm sure that tough love approach will draw plenty of criticism during difficult--perhaps near civil war--episodes, the alternative of remaining an occupying force will quickly collapse both Iraqi and domestic support for the war.

Besides, it will be an opportunity lost if we don't now turn our focus to the Israeli/Palestinian mess and get that moving in a sustained positive direction.

[Vander]

Awww, come on, Jeff. Just leave it "Liberal Media."

[bash]

MSM is sufficient. Don't want to wave a red flag at ya, do I?

[bash]

...related...

Go Iraq...go!

Less than 48 hours left before the people of Iraq experience free decision making for the first time in their country's modern history.

It's a moment of pure freedom but still surrounded by lots of dangers just like any beautiful rose surrounded by spikes.

There is fear from the enemies of freedom who have their weapons already prepared to intimidate us and stop us from choosing our future.

But at the same time we're full of hope as we know that we've put our feet on the right track and even if we make a bad choice once, we know that we will have the chance to reevaluate the situation again.
No more tyrants ruling the country for decades.

We're standing before a historic moment and I won't be exaggerating if I said that it's an important moment for the whole world; we're standing before a crossroads and everyone should watch and learn from the rebirth of Iraq.

Regardless of the winners in the se elections, those who opposed the elections and resisted the change will have to deal with the new reality.

In 48 hours from now, the dying dictatorships and their filthy tools, the terrorists, will find themselves facing an elected legitimate government in Iraq.

The tyrants nightmare is becoming reality, now they will have to deal with the scariest word in their dictionaries; THE PEOPLE'S CHOICE.

The terrorists have challenged the bravery of the Iraqi people but they messed with the wrong people. The people have accepted the challenge; democracy and elections are not a luxury for Iraqis, it's an issue of life or death. And the terror brutal campaign has only made the people more determined to go on with the change.

The results of some recent polls that have shown how determined Iraqis are to hold the elections might have surprised you, but they weren't a surprise for us; we're not the kind of people that kneel to terror and the sights of blood and beheadings.

Saddam had tried all tools of oppression, killing and torture he could find against our people (including WMD's) but he failed to make the people believe in his hateful regime. And that's why the people abandoned him and now, he and his regime are just a bad old tale from the past.

On Sunday, the sun will rise on the land of Mesopotamia. I can't wait, the dream is becoming true and I will stand in front of the box to put my heart in it.

-Mohammed.

http://iraqthemodel.blogspot.com/

[Birdseye]

I think they should go pretty well. I don't see why a few more deaths will change lot. These people have through a lot already with family members and friends dying...

[Lothar]

Early commentary from Geraldo:

GERALDO RIVERA [FOX NEWS]: I don't want to overstate, because I'm very emotional right now. Because I was in that town, just behind me. These GIs have done it, they've created an environment, despite the explosions, despite all the news you've heard of the suicide bomber, snipers, this and that. In this town, in this community, with 15,000 registered voters, we have just returned from the polling place. It is absolutely packed. Roll the video. There are men, women, families coming. They are casting their ballot for the first time. It was so inspiring. It was one of the most amazing things I've ever seen in my entire life. It really is like the Berlin Wall going down in 1989. It really is like the beginning, like the dawn of the civil rights era, when black people could vote for the first time. It is the most amazing sight. Only a hard-bitten cynic, only a person with absolutely no upside to their feeling of optimism, could look askance at what is happening, truly happening today. People are applauding themselves, they look like Rocky coming out of the polling place. There are women voting for the first time, and it's just the most incredible thing. It's so heartwarming to see it.

RIVERA: Now this is a mixed Shia and Suni town. I didn't ask the religion of the people who were voting. I assume just by the news stories you've all heard that most of the people who are voting are of the Shia branch of the Muslim faith. I don't know that for sure. But go to the video of the polling place, because that's where the people are. They're inside. They're voting, they're on line...they're going through a process that--look at that--these people, remember, ladies and gentlemen, they never voted in their life. They never had the right to vote in their life. Now they have a democratic choice. Now they can select which candidate they want for that legislative assembly that will go on to pick candidates and have a permanent Prime Minister and draft a constitution. And so this once-dictatorship, one of the most brutal regimes on earth, can join the family of civilized, democratic nations. I'll tell you folks, it is an amazing, amazing feeling.

RIVERA: I don't know the turnout nationwide. I don't want my enthusiasm to be disguised as a comprehensive report on exactly what the turnout is. I don't know what the flaws are. All I know is what I saw with my own eyes. What I saw with my own eyes were the people of this community turning out to vote, turning out in droves....I tell you, the job they did, it's--they've created an environment stable enough so that these people--not only are our GIs heroes, each one of these voters is a hero. Remember what they have been threatened with. Remember what they have endured. Remember the people who have been beheaded. Remember the threats that if you come out today, this is your last warning, you're going to be killed, your family is going to be killed. Well look at them. They're turning out anyway....

RIVERA: There was a vehicle-born suicide bomber that didn't detonate. The people of the community started pounding on the car with their shoes to show their disdain for the anarchists, these malevolent anarchists. They have no agenda other than disruption. They have no agenda other than chaos and their own self-aggrandizement. It's just amazing....There are the explosions, there's no doubt about it, in the background, the occasional fire, but that's not the news. Yes, it's the news of course, but the real news is that despite everything they are going to cast their ballots. It's incredibly heartwarming....

RIVERA: When I went with these guys to the polling station, they stopped about two blocks away. They would not go. They didn't want it to seem as if it was American military might that was pulling this whole thing off. They stayed two blocks away. We walked up to the polling place, first the Iraqi Army, then the Iraqi cops inside. You had a feeling in there, a kind of almost family feeling in this community....An exciting day, an historic day here in Iraq. It is the dawn of freedom....You folks who live in the United States who are watching this, just be proud. Be proud of this. This is amazing. This was inconceivable, wasn't it, during the days of Saddam Hussein. Look how far this country has come. It will heal its wounds. The terrorists are going to lose.

[Duper]

Im sure the election will be a sucess as people are turing out even with bombings regardless of the outcome.

My concern is keeping government officials alive once elected; being picked off one by one by the insergents.

[woodchip]

Define "success."

How about 72% of the electorate voting?

[Unix]

WahPow.

Nicely done.

[bash]

It's a quagmire!

[woodchip]

Define "success."

Iraqi's living in Syria voting and Syrians cannot?

[woodchip]

Define "success."

In Fallujah a thousand citizens lined up to vote?

[Testiculese]

Define "success."

That the new officials don't belong to US corporations so they can continue to shuffle tax dollars through that country into their own pockets.

[Top Gun]

The Iraqis more than pulled it off; they blew everyone away. This was their chance for their voices to be heard, and they took advantage of it. Nicely done.

[Birdseye]

For the first time I am feeling slightly optimistic that bush's gamble may pay off. The true test is to come in creating the Iraqi constitution. I do know areas of Sunni population had extremely low turnout. If the sunnis ratify the constitution things look extremely bright. If they don't, civil war or nation split seems inevitable. Hopefully the entire nation will ride this positive wave, even though there is still a lot ahead.

Senator Kennedy looked like an ass today on TV. Calling for a defined plan of troop withdrawal after the election is silly. It looks like the US security prescense worked for voting -- I was shocked how few bombs/attacks occured. I think goal setting would be a good idea, as long as the plan is flexibly designed to shift to the needs at the time.

I hate to throw in a negative, but I have been hearing reports of Taliban power growing in Afghanistan. It would not be wise to forget about Afghanistan while attempting to succeed in Iraq.

[Will Robinson]

I hate to throw in a negative, but I have been hearing reports of Taliban power growing in Afghanistan. It would not be wise to forget about Afghanistan while attempting to succeed in Iraq.

I think your fears, although not completely unfounded, may be overblown. linkage

[Tyranny]

Geraldo Rivera's thing was nice but can't we snipe that guy already and say some insurgent did it? Please?!?!

[Krom]

I wish... BTW, nice avatar Tyranny.

[Tyranny]

thx

[Lothar]

I do know areas of Sunni population had extremely low turnout.

From what I hear, turnout was higher than expected across the board. Sunni turnout was still lower than average, but not lower than expected. Without any real numbers to compare to, I can't say any more than that.

[edit]

Sunni participation is low, but as many have pointed out, the participation rate of whites in the first Zimbabwe elections or by Afrikaners in the first post-apartheid election in South Africa mattered not at all to the legitimacy of the vote.

[/edit]

Senator Kennedy looked like an *** today on TV.

Nothing new

Overall, I'm very hopeful now.

[Birdseye]

Good points, it's mainly the constitutional ratification that will be the only big snafu possible involving the Sunni.

[Lothar]

Yeah... there is always the risk of the Sunni trying to veto the constitution, but I don't think they will.