DescentBB

FiveThirtyEight (Nate Silver's organization) puts his chances at well under 5%.

keep in mind Nate Silver wrote that over a month ago, so it doesn't account for the latest info. But it does seem to track it pretty well.

Foil wrote:FiveThirtyEight (Nate Silver's organization) puts his chances at well under 5%.

hmmm, thanks, Foil. Now you make it look like I was trying to short Woody on the odds.

Lothar wrote:... there are sites giving 4/1 on Trump winning? If I was in a spot where I could tolerate leaving money in escrow that long, I'd love to lay* those odds.

wow, what a sucker bet. Counting on buzz and bluster pulling in the rubes. As Fol posted, professional political oddsmakers put his chances at maybe 20-1 against.

* meaning, take the Trump loses side of the bet, at 1/4. Easy money.

easy overlay. I'd like to know what they are offering for the opposite wager. I am sure you would NEVER be given 1-5(the opposite of 4-1, for purposes of house take-out). If you see 1-20 someplace, can you PM me?

callmeslick wrote:If you see 1-20 someplace, can you PM me?

Why restrict it to you?

Betfair is offering 14.5 at https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/# ... .107373419 -- but of course as an exchange, you can only get what people are offering on the other side. The 14.0 I saw earlier got gobbled up.

(For the record, I don't gamble and don't know anything about any of these sites, including their legality or trustworthiness. Bet at your own risk.)

Betfair is a pretty established exchange wagering site.....been huge in England for years, over here for about a decade. Not a huge gambler at this point in my life, but getting even 14-1 against Trump is what horseplayers would see as a bridge-jumper bet(sure thing which COULD theoretically lose, but likely won't, so you put HUGE money down....usually found in the form of $25,000 show bets on horses, which are guaranteed to pay 1-20 at a minimum).

you can get almost 4-1 against Trump getting the Republican nomination at https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleOp ... =838#data1

Classy. And TB thinks liberals are uncivil because they swear.

http://news.yahoo.com/trump-declines-co ... ction.html

Just watching the rerun of the 2011 roast of Donald Trump on Comedy Central. Pretty funny considering he never actually ran in 2012 but they were sure joking about it. The most revelant joke by Snoop Dogg.

Snoop Dogg wrote:Donald Trump says he wants to wants to run for president and move into the White House. Why not? It wouldn't be the first time you pushed a black family out of their home.

From a FB friend who absolutely despises Trump:

I subscribe to the theory that Trump's popularity is not because people actually like him or think he'd make a good president or even necessarily agree with his political beliefs. Rather, it's that they've hit a breaking point with the overly sensitive manner in which language is socially censored in the country now. For example, a Harvard professor wrote a piece about how he can't even use the phrase "violates the Constitution" because of how uncomfortable that term makes law students because of its association with sexual abuse. It's linguistic hegemony to the point of absurdity. For better or worse, I think Trump speaks to that frustration for a lot of people.

removed image when double check revealed it to be dubious. My trigger to go dig was the date for the quote and the reference to Faux News in that timeframe.Apologies, as I just saw it and linked it because it was funny, and didn't spend the time double checking as I do on news links.

Still a shill for the Democratic propaganda machine I see. CNN would kill to have the ratings Fox news does.

dammit slick...

http://www.snopes.com/1998-trump-people-quote/

beat me to it, Ferno. Removed the meme......which may have been funny, but wasn't a real quote by the Donald that I could find.

callmeslick wrote:beat me to it, Ferno. Removed the meme......which may have been funny, but wasn't a real quote by the Donald that I could find.

Just goes to show how little I tolerate bs from anyone.

or me from myself. Was sitting at a hoagie shop before returning home and pondering that whole business about Fox and 1997 or whatever, and it stunk, so I snopesed it myself.

The gift that just keeps on giving:
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ ... ar-BBms3OM

callmeslick wrote:The gift that just keeps on giving:
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ ... ar-BBms3OM

What exactly about that statement of Trump's don't you agree with?

snoopy wrote:What exactly about that statement of Trump's don't you agree with?

said it'd be a lot easier for women to forgo putting on makeup and instead wear the traditional Muslim covering.

snoopy wrote:

callmeslick wrote:The gift that just keeps on giving:
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ ... ar-BBms3OM

What exactly about that statement of Trump's don't you agree with?

One thing's for sure, it would be far easier for most women to just throw on a burka in the morning instead of spending the time they normally do primping and painting themselves. A burka wouldn't look very pleasing to most normal, red blooded American men however. Maybe Trump's a closet Muslim with burka fantasies?

Oh, and Trump says his life hasn't been easy for him at times.

http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-t ... ollar-loan

snoopy wrote:

callmeslick wrote:The gift that just keeps on giving:
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ ... ar-BBms3OM

What exactly about that statement of Trump's don't you agree with?

it's the sort of dismissive claptrap that men aim towards women all the time. The point is, it isn't a matter for a man to decide.

Was Trump making policy with that statement or was he merely making a comment?

he was merely making a comment. Yet another of a series of ignorant, insensitive outright dumb comments he's made. Now, this is why his campaign is clearly in decline now, and we're seeing the public meltdown. I hope to have the time and energy tonight to watch the meltdown continue and likely watch it accelerate. The media got their cash from his circus, and he is done.

Interestingly, I note that Kasich has finally taken the gloves out and called his party on what is has become. Whether that wins him many friends is yet to be seen, but is evidence of why I've said all along that Kasich is the ONLY GOP contender I would give serious consideration. I don't agree with many of his policy ideas, but he is clearly a man of both intelligence and of concern for the principle of public service.

Makes you wonder why he even bothered to make that comment? It's pointless, insipid and not germane to anything in current politics, other than dissing one segment of voters he needs to have support from in order to win. Maybe Trump likes to burn his bridges before he crosses them?

callmeslick wrote:

snoopy wrote:

callmeslick wrote:The gift that just keeps on giving:
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ ... ar-BBms3OM

What exactly about that statement of Trump's don't you agree with?

it's the sort of dismissive claptrap that men aim towards women all the time. The point is, it isn't a matter for a man to decide.

Wasn't the point of his statement? My understanding is that he made the comments in opposition to us telling other countries to forbid burkas... saying it's their [women's] choice, plus it's practical, plus it's beautiful. I don't understand how he's being controversial unless you're trying very hard to read controversy into it. I'm not exactly a trump fan, but I think it's wilful misunderstanding to read controversy into this.

snoopy wrote:My understanding is that he made the comments in opposition to us telling other countries to forbid burkas... saying it's their [women's] choice, plus it's practical, plus it's beautiful.

We don't tell other countries to forbid burkas, we tell them to give women a choice. Yes, many Islamic women choose traditional conservative dress, but the one who don't are sometimes beaten, imprisoned, and occasionally killed. Trump, whether he understands these issues or not, only speaks coarsely, in sound-bites, and never indicates any kind of subtlety. Because of this, he attracts a lot of ignorant people and those who can't be bothered with complex thoughts.

snoopy wrote:Wasn't the point of his statement? My understanding is that he made the comments in opposition to us telling other countries to forbid burkas... saying it's their [women's] choice, plus it's practical, plus it's beautiful. I don't understand how he's being controversial unless you're trying very hard to read controversy into it. I'm not exactly a trump fan, but I think it's wilful misunderstanding to read controversy into this.

did you really just ignore the second part of his statement? he just literally said that women should ditch the makeup and start wearing burqas.

Trump is basically Ugly America personified, and the fact that so many people out there would be willing to see him hold the highest office in the land pretty much makes me lose whatever hope I had left for my country.

Top Gun, instead you should feel good about our country knowing that Trump will never, ever be the president.

Ferno wrote:

snoopy wrote:Wasn't the point of his statement? My understanding is that he made the comments in opposition to us telling other countries to forbid burkas... saying it's their [women's] choice, plus it's practical, plus it's beautiful. I don't understand how he's being controversial unless you're trying very hard to read controversy into it. I'm not exactly a trump fan, but I think it's wilful misunderstanding to read controversy into this.

did you really just ignore the second part of his statement? he just literally said that women should ditch the makeup and start wearing burqas.

No, he really didn't.

Look, Trump is an idiot. But the context of the statement was whether burqas should be banned. And the meat of the statement is the "why are we involved?" comment.

He never says women "should" wear them. He says that some women choose to wear them and like them, and points out that "ease of use" is one potential reason. IMO it took some guts for Trump to say this, since a lot of his support comes from nutters who want to ban the burqa.

Seriously, this is akin to people flipping out about Obama's "my Muslim beliefs" comment (where what he was actually saying was that McCain hadn't made that accusation but that people in the media had, and people somehow turned it into Obama "admitting" to be Muslim.) If you ignore the actual context and then manufacture a reduced, misleading context you can make the comment sound damning, but it's really a pretty sensible comment.

Lothar, it's a dual comment.

One part is the "we shouldn't get involved" part, which I agree to. That's cool. But the second part where he says it would be easier for women to wear a burqa and forego makeup? yeah, that's just dumb.

And given Trumps' behaviour over the past ten years, 'easier' usually translates into 'should'.

But at the end of it all, it's just a silly man with a goofy hairdo doing what he does best. Acting like a big shot, when in reality he doesn't really matter.

If it was not Trump, playing the role of the controversial candidate, shocking the audience, it would have to come up to distract voters' attention from discussing the really important issues and to ensure that the old ideology would look more profitable than any new changes.

It seems to me part of Trump’s comment was tongue in cheek.

callmeslick wrote:he was merely making a comment. Yet another of a series of ignorant, insensitive outright dumb comments he's made.

No where as dumb or insensitive as comments by Hillary that the Benghazi consulate attack was due to a video.

Ferno wrote:And given Trumps' behaviour over the past ten years, 'easier' usually translates into 'should'.

In other words, you're letting your dislike of the man change what he said into what you heard.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principle_of_charity

I don't really dislike the man any more than I'd dislike any shopkeep I usually deal with. now quit reading too far into it.

If Trump wants his statements to be seen in the best possible light he should work a little harder to come across as a serious thinker instead of a clown. You can only say ridiculous things so many times before people tune you out. Let's not put all the responsibility on the listener.

If you're tuning him out, just tune him out.

If you want to make claims about what he actually means, you have to take responsibility as a listener.

You can't both tune him out and claim to know what he really meant based on a tiny snippet.