Von Neumann machines - are they right?
Posted: Tue Feb 10, 2004 1:10 am
http://www.mkaku.org/articles/physics_o ... civs.shtml
I've referred to this URL before - but only to point out that we aren't even a Type 0 civilisation.
What concerns me is the idea of a Von Neumann machine made by humans. The concept of it is rapidly approcahing on a nano-scale, and if we survive that, we might have some confidence in our ability to make "safe" Von Neumann machines.
In the last week, a very interesting article has appeared which suggests self-desassembly for Von Neumann machines (nanobot replicators).
The concept of Grey-Goo raises it ugly head when you invent a nanobot which can replicate itself: they, very rapidly, consume the entire surface of the Planet, and convert EVERYTHING into copies of themselves.
I think in the absence of imminent Nuclear global destruction, this is our next, worst, threat - and some estimates place the likelyhood of humans being extinct in 50 years as high as 50%.
Nanotechnology is definitely coming: yeah - some of you may not believe it, but that's not going to stop it happening. The potential for good is simply too high to ignore, and the potential for extinction - and every option in between is also there too. You and I will see, in our lifetimes, miracles performed - because all sufficiently advanced technology appears as magic. (Arthur Clarke, 1960)
However, if our nanotech gets away on us - then our planet will be Grey Goo - and perhaps that's not such a tradegy from one perspective. We're basically a plague on the face of the Earth, and if we aren't killed off soon, we'll be a plague on the Galaxy in a lifetime coming to you soon.
It might be OK to sterilise your own world - but it's pretty bad manners to sterilise a galaxy, or even the Universe!
The idea of a Von Neumann machine is seductive, because it solves all your problems. You no longer have to DO anything, except wait for them to send you signals and information about the Galaxy at large. That in itself has numerous implications.
But consider this: any machine smart enough to reproduce itself is alive, and although we might make them the machine-equivalent of asexual (copies only) the natural process of reproduction is eventually going to produce errors. It doesn't make one shred of difference how careful you are, or how many failsafe's are built in, eventually they'll be "mutations" that survive to reproduce. It might take millions (or even billions) of years for this to occur. (But, by then will we care?)
Initially these mutations might only make them more efficient at their jobs, but sooner or later, the errors will compound such that the original mission of these devices is corrupted. Now there's a breed of Von Neumann machines which have a new purpose, and that purpose might only be to make more of themselves! (or something slightly less immediate but still as dangerous.)
How long would a galaxy last in the hands/claws/grippers of such things?
I don't know how many civilised space faring cultures there are in our galaxy (Drake says about 50, but I think less than this), but I do know, that if they get together to trade and create wealth, then they'll have only one hard and fast rule: No Von Neumann machines.
Creating Von Neumann machines would cause the eventual extinction of all species in a galaxy if allowed to pursue their goals.
The fine point in all this - is that by definition we are virtual/biological Von Neumann machines designed to do nothing except replicate and replicate again. The unavoidable evolution of Von Neumann machines maps directly to the unavoidable evolution of man kind. The onyl differences are that humans are less durable, breed slower and are easier to kill than VN machines.
Perhaps this is in our favour, galactically, as we're unlikely to be considered a threat.
However, if we create these machiens and send them out into the galaxy, we might be signing the death warrant on the human species. Maybe Type 2 civilisations might look kindly on emerging Type 0s - but on the other hand, maybe when the new kids on the block break the rules they simply get exterminated, and the Type IIs have to spend countless energies tracking down and destroying every last VN machine. Because if you miss just one then you might as well not have bothered to destoy any of them.
Devices must never be allowed to self replicate independently, and must expire naturally in a short period of time.
What do you think?
I've referred to this URL before - but only to point out that we aren't even a Type 0 civilisation.
What concerns me is the idea of a Von Neumann machine made by humans. The concept of it is rapidly approcahing on a nano-scale, and if we survive that, we might have some confidence in our ability to make "safe" Von Neumann machines.
In the last week, a very interesting article has appeared which suggests self-desassembly for Von Neumann machines (nanobot replicators).
The concept of Grey-Goo raises it ugly head when you invent a nanobot which can replicate itself: they, very rapidly, consume the entire surface of the Planet, and convert EVERYTHING into copies of themselves.
I think in the absence of imminent Nuclear global destruction, this is our next, worst, threat - and some estimates place the likelyhood of humans being extinct in 50 years as high as 50%.
Nanotechnology is definitely coming: yeah - some of you may not believe it, but that's not going to stop it happening. The potential for good is simply too high to ignore, and the potential for extinction - and every option in between is also there too. You and I will see, in our lifetimes, miracles performed - because all sufficiently advanced technology appears as magic. (Arthur Clarke, 1960)
However, if our nanotech gets away on us - then our planet will be Grey Goo - and perhaps that's not such a tradegy from one perspective. We're basically a plague on the face of the Earth, and if we aren't killed off soon, we'll be a plague on the Galaxy in a lifetime coming to you soon.
It might be OK to sterilise your own world - but it's pretty bad manners to sterilise a galaxy, or even the Universe!
The idea of a Von Neumann machine is seductive, because it solves all your problems. You no longer have to DO anything, except wait for them to send you signals and information about the Galaxy at large. That in itself has numerous implications.
But consider this: any machine smart enough to reproduce itself is alive, and although we might make them the machine-equivalent of asexual (copies only) the natural process of reproduction is eventually going to produce errors. It doesn't make one shred of difference how careful you are, or how many failsafe's are built in, eventually they'll be "mutations" that survive to reproduce. It might take millions (or even billions) of years for this to occur. (But, by then will we care?)
Initially these mutations might only make them more efficient at their jobs, but sooner or later, the errors will compound such that the original mission of these devices is corrupted. Now there's a breed of Von Neumann machines which have a new purpose, and that purpose might only be to make more of themselves! (or something slightly less immediate but still as dangerous.)
How long would a galaxy last in the hands/claws/grippers of such things?
I don't know how many civilised space faring cultures there are in our galaxy (Drake says about 50, but I think less than this), but I do know, that if they get together to trade and create wealth, then they'll have only one hard and fast rule: No Von Neumann machines.
Creating Von Neumann machines would cause the eventual extinction of all species in a galaxy if allowed to pursue their goals.
The fine point in all this - is that by definition we are virtual/biological Von Neumann machines designed to do nothing except replicate and replicate again. The unavoidable evolution of Von Neumann machines maps directly to the unavoidable evolution of man kind. The onyl differences are that humans are less durable, breed slower and are easier to kill than VN machines.
Perhaps this is in our favour, galactically, as we're unlikely to be considered a threat.
However, if we create these machiens and send them out into the galaxy, we might be signing the death warrant on the human species. Maybe Type 2 civilisations might look kindly on emerging Type 0s - but on the other hand, maybe when the new kids on the block break the rules they simply get exterminated, and the Type IIs have to spend countless energies tracking down and destroying every last VN machine. Because if you miss just one then you might as well not have bothered to destoy any of them.
Devices must never be allowed to self replicate independently, and must expire naturally in a short period of time.
What do you think?