DescentBB

http://gamereviewsblog.com/?p=22

Seems Blu-Ray will win out.

IIRC, regular DVDs still hold about 90% of the market. The HD-DVD vs Blu-ray war is farily moot, as the winner only claims a relatively small reward.

Thing is, eventually, one of them will win the war because all TV's will be HD.

When movie studios get to take their pick, we get the standard with more DRM...

TIGERassault wrote:IIRC, regular DVDs still hold about 90% of the market. The HD-DVD vs Blu-ray war is farily moot, as the winner only claims a relatively small reward.

I'm pretty sure that stat should be in excess of 97%. High def brag about moving 100,000 copies to each other while good ole DVD does in excess of 60 million copies at the same time.

Which standard I would rather see becoming the one to get? Blu-ray, not because I support Sony or even care about high def period, it is all about the storage capacity. What I am interested in is using it for data backup purposes and last time I checked 25 GB per layer was bigger than 15 GB per layer, so blu-ray wins purely on capacity.

I hope Bluray burns only because of the shifting DRM and the ability to brick players at a whim. Screw that. I'll take 15GB instead. (HDDVD is upping their capacity without screwing over the people who already bought a player, unlike Blueray.)

... I reckon Sarge from Red Vs Blue has got it right

http://rvb.roosterteeth.com/archive/episode.php?id=242

Gekko71 wrote:... I reckon Sarge from Red Vs Blue has got it right

http://rvb.roosterteeth.com/archive/episode.php?id=242

LOL!

Blu-Ray has the \"better\" DRM but is controlled by Sony. Hard to say who wins. My guess would be the manufactors of players to can do both..

HD-DVD vs Blu-Ray?

What about Red-Ray or HHD-DVVDD-BVD!

Dakatsu wrote:HD-DVD vs Blu-Ray?

What about Red-Ray or HHD-DVVDD-BVD!

DVDs are already using red lasers (CDs use infrared).

This was a rumor floating around last week at the office. I had also heard that the deal may be off. Someone (I'm guessing Microsoft or more likely, Toshiba) was looking to bribe Warner Bros. This is basically what happened with Paramount/Dreamworks. I think MS did the big payout there. Toshiba payed a few million to Walmart not long ago to keep their players on the shelves.

But Frankly I think the writing's been on the wall since Blockbuster went Blu-ray only. There's been plenty of comparisons to the Betamax/VHS format war, but I think it's a little more complicated and you have a (relatively) more educated consumer market. Especially since you're talking about competing console game formats, where one could have a PS3, play their games and watch their Blu-ray movies, then buy a set-top player for the HD-DVD player. Or vice-versa. Plus there's dual-format players on the way... But with Warner Bros. dropping HD-DVD, I think the end may be closer than even I thought possible.

I've always beleived the following:
As long as Disney and Fox stick to their guns and stay Blu-ray only, it will eventually be the dominant format. Because everyone's gonna want their Finding Nemo, and everyone's gonna want their Star Wars. I would think the value of Disney's back catalog to be a no-brainer, and so with this single title from Fox that will end up being the disc to have in, or even to start, your collection.

Add in the Sony factor, with their own amount of content in Columbia/Tri-Star, and now MGM, and I always beleived you had the makings of an unstoppable machine that would eventually crush the HD-DVD.

But that's just the politics and marketing end of it. As a format, Blu-ray is better. Krom mentioned larger disc capacity. Which means more bits devoted towards the video. And more bits is always better when it comes to video compression. Plus I love the idea of being able to truly watch films in progressive 24fps as intended, instead of 30fps interlaced pictures with a 3-2 pulldown. And now you're going to see Blu-rays that incorporate Java, which will open up a world of possibilities from more complex menus and navigation structures, imbedded hyperlinks, picture-in-picture, and other goodies that would require major spec revisions for HD-DVD. In short, Java's going to make Blu-ray far flashier and more versatile.

However, consumers should be careful from making simple assumptions about some dual-release content currently coming out. One might assume with a dual release from Warner Bros., for example, that the video encode on the Blu-ray has a larger bitrate than the HD-DVD. However, most of the professional level encoders are coming out with single-encode-dual-publish functions. The bitrate for the HD-DVD is determined, a single video encode is done, and then the encoder publishes two different files with the different buffer levels.

The net effect is that the video for the Blu-ray is exactly the same quality as the HD-DVD. And there's some extra space on the Blu-ray that's simply unused. Sad, really, as it then fails to take advantage of one of the traits that makes Blu-ray a better format for video. For VC1 encodes, it also means being restricted to the shorter GOP structures of the HD-DVD format, but that's getting really deep...

Then there's cases where two differnt encodes are done, but there ends up being a little matter of money. Discovery Channel releases are suffering from simple frugalness. The Blu-ray disc is a completely new format, requiring a very different (and currently more expensive) manufacturing technique. So although their shelling out the money for dual layer HD-DVD 30s, their still only willing to pay for single layer BD 25s. The end result is that the HD-DVD disc video files have a higher bitrate and look slightly better than their BD conterparts. Which is just backwards from how it's \"supposed\" to be.

Oh, and for those of you worried about DRM, I have on good authority that this is already cracked. I've gotten word about someone \"in the business\" who's already copying her favorite Blu-ray titles.

Microsoft may not lose out completely here, either. They've put a lot behind the HD-DVD format, to be sure. But their encoding division developing the VC1 codec has been developing for both formats. Their buddies at Toshiba have been more loyal to the format. Which is really sad, because the Toshiba HD-DVD makes incredible AVC files. Perhaps the best encoder on the market. Too bad it only encodes for the \"wrong\" format...

But Microsoft has developed a superb encoder for the VC1 format that's outperforming all others. It's won every single side-by-side comparison I've done with it's biggest AVC competitor. As far as I know, it's still the encoder of first choice at DeLuxe, and is in some use at Technicolor as well. Certain smaller houses have chosen it also, mostly for it's fine work, but also because it can be incorporated into a render farm. This can significantly reduce encode times, even when using a handful of worker computers, and increase productivity.

So if this keeps up, and VC1 continues to be used for a good chunk of the titles coming out, Microsoft will still get some cash for their encoder and licensing fees for their codec.

Blue ray blows. Looks like a cheesy news cast matting from the 70's.

And now you're going to see Blu-rays that incorporate Java, which will open up a world of possibilities from more complex menus and navigation structures, imbedded hyperlinks, picture-in-picture, and other goodies that would require major spec revisions for HD-DVD. In short, Java's going to make Blu-ray far flashier and more versatile.

And that's the first thing I'm going to remove when I rip them. Stupid crap.

I'm still not impressed with a most loathsome company, Sony, having the ability to brick my player just because they want to.

Testiculese wrote:And that's the first thing I'm going to remove when I rip them. Stupid crap.

You'll be suprised just how many companies did refuse to use Blu-ray because of that Java. Including HP. (well, that and the lack of a managed copy feature)

You know who's gonna win?

Whatever the porn companies choose as their format. Kinda like the last time.

Top Wop wrote:You know who's gonna win?

Whatever the porn companies choose as their format. Kinda like the last time.

wow.. didn't see THAT coming.

Duper wrote:wow.. didn't see THAT coming.

Surprising as it sounds it is actually true. (And you thought Disney had all the clout...)

Neither will win. Microsoft wants the download model of getting movies (or any media) into your home, no hard media, and thus full control of all the bits.

Gates is just sitting back and waiting for the two formats to duke it out and self implode.

The industry isn't ready for full online distribution yet, they are still clinging to being able to control every aspect of stuff with physical media and they have enough money to keep it up for a while longer.

Also there is something else to take into consideration, I have a pretty average internet connection here and it would require over a week solid to download a full high definition movie. Downloading a full standard def DVD still requires a couple days worth of bandwidth.

I don't really care which wins, they both look good on my TV.

Me, I'm waiting for a hologram projector and some laser-based data storage crystal cubes.

Would be cool...

holodeck ftw

You know what really pisses me off? The fact that the local signal is going to be gone in 2009. No TV w/o cable? ★■◆● that! I still don't have cable and am doing just fine.

Money! wrote:You know what really pisses me off? The fact that the local signal is going to be gone in 2009. No TV w/o cable? **** that! I still don't have cable and am doing just fine.

I'm tempted to post the "Read: then you won't look so stupid when you post." image here but instead I'll just fill in the information you didn't read.

Analog TV broadcasts will end in 2009. This does not mean your local stations are going off the air, it just means that they will be required to move to digital broadcasting. You will continue to get your local stations on your existing TV with the help of a small digital tuner that the government will even pay for if necessary.

They're doing you a favour by changing over MONEY, Digital TV is cool, forget analog.

Red_5 wrote:I don't really care which wins, they both look good on my TV.

Me, I'm waiting for a hologram projector and some laser-based data storage crystal cubes.

Would be cool...

i'm still waiting for my awesome cheap 1 Terrabyte discs.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fluorescen ... layer_Disc

Top Wop wrote:You know who's gonna win?

Whatever the porn companies choose as their format. Kinda like the last time.

Porn? I thought that's what the internet was for?

tunnelcat wrote:Neither will win. Microsoft wants the download model of getting movies (or any media) into your home, no hard media, and thus full control of all the bits.

Anyone I know who's actually tried it was sorely dissapointed with the experience. As long as the physical media can deliver a better looking product than any VOD systems, I think you're unlikely to see them go away completely. In fact, a big VOD venture my employer had with HP just went under very suddenly. It's just not catching on like one might expect.

The industry may be full of flat out greed, but it's also dominated by people who want the best quality pictures in their own homes. I mean some real obsessive freaks about it...

Actually, streaming media may be where porn actually does lead the industry. Despite my ribbing of Top Wop, it is quite true that the internet is becoming where the money really is in pornography. That's why I think his analysis is off the mark. When VHS was sqauring off against beta, it was about the only practical method to watch dirty movies at home. Not so, today. Physical media is becoming unprofitable to porn (not just DVD, but magazines too). Meanwhile the traditionally lower overhead of cyber ventures is also more attractive to the traditionally cheap porn production companies.

To major studios, quality matters. Not so much for porn.

Krom wrote:(And you thought Disney had all the clout...)

Yeah, well all that porn is only going to lead to someone having sex sooner or later. Kids often follow. Kids like their cartoons. Disney still wins.

Testiculese wrote:I'm still not impressed with a most loathsome company, Sony, having the ability to brick my player just because they want to.

I really don't see any advantage to Sony doing this arbitrarily, or just for giggles. So as long as you behave legally, I'm not sure how this would ever happen to you. Give them a reason, such as pirating content, then perhaps it could.

I hardly fault Sony, or any of the entertainment interests involved, for trying to protect their product from being stolen. Especially since my paycheck depends on it. Do you not like to go to malls with the metal sensors on either side of the door? Because really you might as well say "I don't want to shop in stores I can't easily shoplift from". I'm not trying to be judgemental, and am hardly completely innocent myself. I'm just saying it's silly for theives to complain that their victim isn't their willing accomplice in robbing them.

I'd only hope you'd take such precautions before investing the millions of dollars it takes to release a movie.

Actually the rumor mill at the Consumer Electronics Show in Vegas is running hot with talk that the Viacom companies (Paramount, Dreamworks, CBS) are now desperate to ditch HD-DVD despite their taking a $180 million bribe from Microsoft to stay exclusive. I'm told their agreement had a loophole that could cancel it if Warner dropped the format. If true, I'm guessing the Viacom lawyers are currently working hard to figure out how they can take advantage of the loophole, and still keep the money. But that's just my reckless speculation...

Once Warner made their announcement, Toshiba cancelled the huge party they were hosting at the show. Not a good time for them. Can't wait to talk to my Microsoft rep...

[RIP]Machete_Bug wrote:But that's just the politics and marketing end of it. As a format, Blu-ray is better. Krom mentioned larger disc capacity. Which means more bits devoted towards the video. And more bits is always better when it comes to video compression. Plus I love the idea of being able to truly watch films in progressive 24fps as intended, instead of 30fps interlaced pictures with a 3-2 pulldown. And now you're going to see Blu-rays that incorporate Java, which will open up a world of possibilities from more complex menus and navigation structures, imbedded hyperlinks, picture-in-picture, and other goodies that would require major spec revisions for HD-DVD. In short, Java's going to make Blu-ray far flashier and more versatile.

HD-DVD has a triple-layer disk at 51GB, so as far as actual size, Blu-Ray is now smaller. However, Blu-Ray DOES still support a higher bitrate (54Mbps max vs 30 Mbps on HD-DVD).

And HD-DVD supports 24FPS.

HD-DVD also has its ★■◆● together far more and IMO is more tuned to the actual consumer. However, WB moving Blu is pretty much the death sentence. I don't think porn will factor into this war.

[RIP]Machete_Bug wrote:

Testiculese wrote:I'm still not impressed with a most loathsome company, Sony, having the ability to brick my player just because they want to.

I really don't see any advantage to Sony doing this arbitrarily, or just for giggles. So as long as you behave legally, I'm not sure how this would ever happen to you. Give them a reason, such as pirating content, then perhaps it could.

I buy everything. I'm not desperate for entertainment, so if it's not good enough, I'm not buying it or downloading it. "If you have nothing to hide..." doesn't apply here. If a hardware key is hacked, Sony shuts it off. ALL players with that key are now dead. Some guy in Morocco can get my player bricked. It has already happened. Especially movie disks. Disks that used to play no longer play because of updated firmware.

Bluray (politically) is garbage. And the name sucks, too!

tunnelcat wrote:Neither will win. Microsoft wants the download model of getting movies (or any media) into your home, no hard media, and thus full control of all the bits.

Gates is just sitting back and waiting for the two formats to duke it out and self implode.

Wait, what? Microsoft is Toshiba's biggest backer for the HD-DVD. Heck, Microsoft are the ones that designed the interface too.

Didn't any of you guys see Gates' presentation at the CES? He was hyping his new XBOX with the ability for VOD. The wave of the future with movies, games, etc., all on his platform.

Well, I'm not going to hold my breath or have any warm and fuzzies for VOD with the state of broadband in the U.S. If Gates thinks that VOD is the wave of the future, he can come to my home and try it out on my slug of a DSL connection. Until all the telecommunication companies upgrade all their hardware and install fiber optic up to my house, he can go fly a kite with his VOD plans.

Frankly, I'm hoping that Blu-Ray will win for now, but I wish that they would produce dual-head players that can handle both regular and Blu-Ray DVD's. Right now, I've heard that regular DVD's work like crap in Blu-Ray players, and I have a large collection.

tunnelcat wrote:Frankly, I'm hoping that Blu-Ray will win for now, but I wish that they would produce dual-head players that can handle both regular and Blu-Ray DVD's. Right now, I've heard that regular DVD's work like crap in Blu-Ray players, and I have a large collection.

I don't have any problems with them in my Sony BDP-S300. As for the "dual-head players" you mentioned, they've been out for months now. Its just that they're rediculously expensive compared to just getting one of each. For what it would cost to get a dual format player, you could get one of each and still have money left to buy a dozen movies in each format.

tunnelcat wrote:Didn't any of you guys see Gates' presentation at the CES? He was hyping his new XBOX with the ability for VOD. The wave of the future with movies, games, etc., all on his platform.

Well, I'm not going to hold my breath or have any warm and fuzzies for VOD with the state of broadband in the U.S. If Gates thinks that VOD is the wave of the future, he can come to my home and try it out on my slug of a DSL connection. Until all the telecommunication companies upgrade all their hardware and install fiber optic up to my house, he can go fly a kite with his VOD plans.

Keyword: 'future'. I really doubt that you're going to stick to your DSL connection for the rest of your life.

TIGERassault wrote:Keyword: 'future'. I really doubt that you're going to stick to your DSL connection for the rest of your life.

I hate to break it to you, but the future is already here. They're already streaming trailers in HD off of Apple and the XBox marketplace. They already have the equipment and the bandwith, its just boils down to getting the rights.

HOWEVER, the problem is the substandard connection speeds here in the US where the average is like 2Mbps. (hell, I'm lucky to break 150kbps in downloads where I'm at.) Right now Verizon's FIOS is the only option for a decent internet connection.

roid wrote:They're doing you a favour by changing over MONEY, Digital TV is cool, forget analog.

Red_5 wrote:I don't really care which wins, they both look good on my TV.

Me, I'm waiting for a hologram projector and some laser-based data storage crystal cubes.

Would be cool...

i'm still waiting for my awesome cheap 1 Terrabyte discs.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fluorescen ... layer_Disc

Are those the holographic imagery thing disks?

nah. they're Fluorescent Multilayer discs.

prettymuch the same as normal DVDs, but transparent - so they can have like 100+ layers. Normal DVDs can only have 2 layers or so coz they arn't transparent, the light can't travel through.

100 layers with blue lasers will give you 1 Terrabyte discs that can be read with only a slight modification to current DVD players. ie: it'd be the same price as current tech.

roid wrote:nah. they're Fluorescent Multilayer discs.

prettymuch the same as normal DVDs, but transparent - so they can have like 100+ layers. Normal DVDs can only have 2 layers or so coz they arn't transparent, the light can't travel through.

100 layers with blue lasers will give you 1 Terrabyte discs that can be read with only a slight modification to current DVD players. ie: it'd be the same price as current tech.

But wouldn't the discs themselves be ridiculously expensive?

not really, they are just thinner layers, and more of them. And the whole thing is made to be completely transparent so that it can focus on any single layer right through the other transparent layers. they do this by using a kindof fluorescent ink material for each \"bit\" or \"pit\" on the disc that either changes (coz they are re-writable) or glows with normal incoherent light when lasers are focused on it in different ways. This emitted incoherent light then shines through all the other transparent layers and exits the disc - that's the data you read. It's all doable coz of the transparency - simple stuff.

Discs are already many layers. Here's a normal DVD, the bulk of it is the polycarbonate thick protective layers, but the data layers are rather thin:


FMD discs are said to be just a few cents more expensive to manufacture.

TIGERassault wrote:But wouldn't the discs themselves be ridiculously expensive?

I'm pretty disconnected from the replication end of the business, but here's what I've been lead to undersand. Much of the added cost of Blu-ray right now is that the manufacturing technique is new. Not only are they harder to make, but there's not many places making them. There are assurances that, like just about every technology, as the format grows, prices will drop. So far they have been.

I'm also told one cost problem to be overcome is the high rate of defects. These are caught in QC and destroyed before shipping, but apparently the numbers are several times of what you get for CD or DVD. Once again, there are assurances that as the manufacturing technique is refined, defects will decrease, and so too will cost.

I remember when DVD stock and writable drives were "rediculously expensive". But it wasn't too awfully long before they were well within my reach. And nowadays, I see off-brand or generic DVD-R drives on sale at Fry's for right around $20 all the time.

**EDIT**
Keep in mind, these folks really want to make this cheaper. They can't wait to sell us all the same movies again. At least we'll be paying for more pixles this time...

still, I think the missed the ball by not giving us season sets on fewer discs at regular dvd quality.

fliptw wrote:still, I think the missed the ball by not giving us season sets on fewer discs at regular dvd quality.

Which would look sooo much better simply because the jerkoffs that make them wouldn't have to compress the video so far that the picture looks like you took saran wrap to the TV screen. Pisses me off that they did that to half the episodes of Seaquest on the season 2 box set.