** Careful Mr. President !**

[Nightshade]

For all our sakes, please don't push!

Bush orders US Air Force-Navy humanitarian airlift to Georgia

DEBKAfile Special Report

August 13, 2008, 10:53 PM (GMT+02:00)
Bush starts to remove the gloves

Bush starts to remove the gloves

He demanded that Russia open all routes to these deliveries and to civilian transit.

DEBKAfile’s military sources report that the strong military actions a furious US president George W. Bush ordered Wednesday, Aug. 13, after seven days of Russian-Georgian warfare, amount to a bid to break the sea, land and air blockade Russia still maintains against Georgia in violation of the EU-brokered ceasefire.

The first direct US-Russian military clashes in Georgia are now possible if the Russians fail to give way when challenged by US air transports and vessels heading for Georgia. For seven days, Russia has exerted exclusive mastery of Georgia’s skies, sea and land routes.

Flanked by the secretaries of state and defense, Bush said that Robert Gates as head of the military had already sent the first US Air Force C-17 military cargo plane with humanitarian and medical aid on its way to Georgia. It has already landed. Our military sources report that the US air corridor has a short distance to fly from US bases in Italy and Turkey.

Russia's Lavrov lashed back, calling Georgia's leadership \"a special project of the United States.” At some point, he said, the US will have to choose “either support for a virtual project or real partnership [with Russia] on issues that demand collective action.”

The US president accused Moscow of violating the less than one-day old ceasefire fire in its conflict with Georgia, by sending Russian tanks and APC’s to the east of the Georgian town of Gori, threatening the capital Tbilisi, bombing the Black Sea port of Poti and sinking Georgian vessels.

Bush reiterated US support for Georgia’s democratically-elected government and territorial integrity and declared Russia must cease all military acts and withdraw to positions held before the conflict flared.

Referring to Moscow’s efforts to integrate into the diplomatic, political, economic, and security structures of the 21st century, Bush said Russia is now putting its aspirations at risk by taking actions in Georgia that are inconsistent with the principles of those institutions. Voicing a veiled threat, the US president said: “To begin to repair the damage to its relations with the United States, Europe, and other nations, and to begin restoring its place in the world, Russia must keep its word and act to end this crisis.”

The Bush statement Wednesday followed reports of Russian tanks entering Gori after the ceasefire, and some 15 armored personnel carriers heading out of the devastated ghost city and blocking the highway connected South Ossetia to the rest of Georgia. Russian “irregulars” were reported killing, burning and looting in Gori and destroying ammunition dumps. A Georgian checkpoint has been placed outside Tbilisi.

Russia was also said to have shot down two Georgian spy drones over the breakaway province.

[Duper]

I'd say we're about a week late.

[Ford Prefect]

I'm on your side TB. No need to stir up the hornet's nest just yet. Both sides will be cranky because they have lost people and now is not the time to fart in the face of the Russian bear.

[Sergeant Thorne]

The hornets are already stirred, it sounds like you just don't want them coming after us. Which is understandable, but is it right to delay while an ally is pounded a little more?

Who cares if the bear gets pissed. Let them show restraint. I don't think they want a war with the U.S.

[Spidey]

Grow some balls, if we have to worry about the repercussions of humanitarian aid, well we might as well close the borders and hide.

[Dakatsu]

Right damn thing to do, as Russia is violating the cease-fire they agreed to. If the Russians care about humanitarian aid, then there is something seriously wrong with Russia!

EDIT: Spidey kinda beat me to it...

[Ford Prefect]

You guys swallow your propaganda whole don't you.
Humanitarian aid my ass. All they are doing is trying to break the Russian blockade so they can send back those 2000 troops from Iraq.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7559855.stm

Beyond the humanitarian mission though, the Pentagon has confirmed that it will be assessing Georgia's wider military needs in the wake of the losses suffered at the hands of the Russians.

[Dakatsu]

You guys swallow your propaganda whole don't you.
Humanitarian aid my ass. All they are doing is trying to break the Russian blockade so they can send back those 2000 troops from Iraq.

I doubt they plan on sending troops back to Iraq for a long time, especially because of the Russian's not being too friendly, even after this "cease-fire"...

[Nightshade]

Although direct military intervention is not being considered, Pentagon sources have hinted that a limited number of troops could be deployed to support what Mr Bush described as a vigorous and continuing humanitarian mission headed by the US military.

The first US air force transport aircraft arrived last night, and the navy was heading to the Black Sea – which is controlled by Russian warships – to deliver humanitarian and medical supplies direct to Georgian ports. “We expect Russia to honour its commitment to let in all forms of humanitarian assistance,” Mr Bush said.

From this story: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w ... 524831.ece

[Bet51987]

I pick Georgia.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/13/ ... index.html

Bee

[Dakatsu]

Russia pressed the United States on Wednesday to choose between "a real partnership" with Moscow or an "illusory" relationship with U.S. ally Georgia.

Washington said it's sticking with Georgia.

This definately shows the Russian government is not looking for peace, mainly because of this "Your with us or against us!" crap. It's funny, Russia is sounding like your average Fox News program

[Ford Prefect]

Wrong direction Dakatsu. Georgia is part of the \"coalition of the willing\" and they have 2000 troops in Iraq. That's one of the reasons that the U.S. is so supportive of Georgia. The U.S. is trying to get them back home.

[Will Robinson]

If no one steps in front of Russia's army then Russia will march into every damn place it wants to and no country will ever believe being an ally of the west means anything at all in terms of protection....

We have no choice but to stand up to them, just hope the Bushies can convince France and Great Britain and a few others to step up along side of us or we may see Putin say 'Go ahead, make my day!'

[Ford Prefect]

Appeasement and ignoring the problem will not work. Nor is it possible for the U.S. or a U.S. backed Georgian army to stop the Russians from occupying as much or a little of Georgia as they wish. Imagine a U.S. invasion of Cuba. What could Russia actually do about that? The U.S. cannot open another land war in a country thousands of miles from home with any hope of success and Russia knows that.

If there is going to be any success in stopping Russian aggression in the area it won't be done with a gun (although you cannot just walk away, I realize that) Now is the time to see what intelligent foreign policy can do. Don't ask me for the answers I'm not privy to all that has been done as said and what can be done and said but WWIII is not a viable option for anyone.

Russia suffered a Vietnam style loosing war of attrition in Afghanistan and they won't want the same in Georgia on the other hand they beat down the Chenchens. (Ironically the lead division fighting in Gori is from Chenchnia, under-paid and under-disciplined I shudder to think what they are doing to the population there) Surely something can be done to reign them in that does not require the deaths of thousands of citizens of yet another country in the middle of a power squeeze.

[Sergeant Thorne]

A diplomatic solution would be the best way. But we've got our work cut out for us, as they've already violated a cease-fire, as I understand. It seems that that would make a diplomatic solution very difficult. They've damaged trust.

It's my opinion that if it's gone this far, then a diplomatic solution, for the greater part, could only be a veiled attempt at some level of appeasement. The time for a true diplomatic solution is past. They knew who Georgia was allied with. I think at this stage it needs to be approached as, \"look, if you insist on pushing this we're both going to suffer severe casualties, so let's find another way\".

WWIII definitely needs to be averted.

[Ford Prefect]

Violations of the ceasefire will happen. There are Ossetian irregulars out there killing Georgians in revenge and to ethnically cleanse Ossetia. The Russian troops simply are not as disciplined as U.S. or British troops and so you get looting and drunken gun play. Both side are positioning for the new borders.
Calmer heads must prevail and settle both sides down. Ossetia and Abkahzia are lost to Georgia just as Kosovo was lost to Serbia.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7558619.stm

They are very clear who they blame: Georgia's President Mikhail Saakashvili, who sent troops to re-take control of this breakaway region. That effort has clearly backfired. The pro-Russian sentiment I experienced on my last visit four years ago has become far fiercer as a result of this conflict.

\"They signed a ceasefire, but Saakashvili can start bombing us again any minute,\" Lusya said, referring to the OSCE/EU-brokered peace plan between Moscow and Tbilisi.

\"Look how many people died here! We can never join Georgia after this. We'll cope on our own.\"

Those areas never wanted to be part of Georgia. Their ties are to Russia and their own ethic groups.
Live with it and get on with trying to protect the Georgians still in those areas and trying to return Georgia to normality.

[Will Robinson]

Violations of the ceasefire will happen.....

the "cease fire" was merely words tossed about by people who wanted to hear them. Russia hasn't stopped taking Georgia since they first entered the country. They probably planned to either take the whole thing and set up a Russian puppet leader or if enough of the world raised hell about it their plan B would be to take back the area's in dispute and leave only after totally pounding the other juicy parts of Georgia as a show of power...
No doubt they want Georgia and other ex-Soviet breakaways to think twice before joining NATO, allowing U.S. defense mechanisms in their country and last but not least, competing with Russia for control of oil/gas pipelines.

Meanwhile Poland has seen this Russian invasion and decided they will now allow U.S. missile defenses to be placed in Poland! I guess people don't always run the direction you think they might when you spook them.
Go Poland!

Here's something the west could do without going to ground war, bomb the crap out of anything Russian that moves beyond Russian borders. Sorry Mr Putin that division of tankers and light armor was in the wrong place...sorry Mr. Putin, maybe you should call back your pilots before more of them are shot down....

The big question is, can the U.S. and U.K and French Air Forces take the Russian Air Force so that the Russian ground pounders are put at severe risk?

I think in a war of attrition certainly they can by sheer force of numbers but that wouldn't be the kind of victory that gets you positive results. We would need the Russian Air Force and possibly her Navy to be in immediate danger of devastation at the mercy of a coalition force so that they retreated from our every advance leaving them no choice but to retreat their ground forces immediately. It would have to be a retreat that looks like a retreat. If they held their own against a joint force, even if they were losing slowly you would more likely strart WWIII than stop them

If we can't deliver that kind of biatch slapping then it's all up to the diplomats begging for Vladimir to please stop...good luck with that!
Putin is no dummy though, he'll be out of Georgia counting his loot before we can get organized.

[Ford Prefect]

Will the reports I read don't show Russia as continuing the invasion. Consolidating yes but not pushing forward. They will not be giving back any significant ground for free and as I said the breakaway regions of Georgia are now part of Russia and maybe the region in between (check the map of the area in that BBC link.)
The President of Georgia started this shooting war. In the war of nerves between Russia and Georgia Georgia blinked first. Probably thinking that Russia was too scared of Georgia's big friends he sent in tanks to roust out the Russians from Tskhinvall. A huge miscalculation and now you want the U.S. to risk all out war with Russia, spend more billions of military dollars, kill thousands of civilians and get more service men and women killed to bail his ass out of the hole he dug.
You are too generous with your friends.

[Duper]

Ford, it doesn't have to be all out war. Go read up on the Cuban missile crisis. (although I'm sure you know about that.

[fliptw]

Ford, it doesn't have to be all out war. Go read up on the Cuban missile crisis. (although I'm sure you know about that.

The cuban missile crisis was a sneeze from nuclear war. not a good example.

[Will Robinson]

...Probably thinking that Russia was too scared of Georgia's big friends he sent in tanks to roust out the Russians from Tskhinvall. A huge miscalculation and now you want the U.S. to risk all out war with Russia, spend more billions of military dollars, kill thousands of civilians and get more service men and women killed to bail his ass out of the hole he dug.
You are too generous with your friends.

Actually I don't really want us to go to war, I would be in favor of using air power to drive the Russians out but like I said, it would have to be an overwhelming force and it would need to be a coalition of powers. If the U.S. tried to do it alone I think Putin might just say 'hit me with your best shot'.

The only reason I feel we should bother at all is because we put our reputation at risk as a country who is trying to get these others to join us largely by offering security and then the first time the Russians cross a border we let them pulverize our new ally. They put us in a very bad spot.

As far as Russia is concerned I'd be happy for them to do well in the world, I think we can live in harmony with them quite easily as long as they don't go back to being a communist society trying to swallow up everything again. As long as they are capitalistic and at least somewhat democratic they can be our equal and it wouldn't bother me one bit.

I'm afraid Putin would love to relive the 70's but this time with his newly found prosperous economy to finance the resurgence of the Mighty Bear. Russia wouldn't lose a cold war today the way they did before, things are different now.

[Duper]

Ford, it doesn't have to be all out war. Go read up on the Cuban missile crisis. (although I'm sure you know about that.

The cuban missile crisis was a sneeze from nuclear war. not a good example.

I disagree.

It was about a tactful show of force. It was about walking the fence as it were. Yes, it's dangerous. But there are time when it is necessary. Sputin and he gang (literally) want nothing more than to reassemble the USSR with his own personal twist. this is the reason they tried to get him out of office and this is why he has stayed the puppet master. Watch. over the next 10 years, the USSR (of sorts) will be reborn. .. or rather recover from its death throws.

[Spidey]

It’s sad to think that the leaders of modern countries could even contemplate sacrificing lives over some fly speck piece of land. (yes, I know it’s more than that)

I say, let the Russians have those disputed little enclaves, and get it over with, it seems that they don’t want to be part of Georgia anyway.

[Ford Prefect]

Spidey I certainly agree the world's leaders seem far too willing to sacrifice the lives and security of their own citizens and the citizens of other lands in actions that do little but attempt to increase their own power and influence. Many of them seem mad as march hares to me.
What was the president of Georgia thinking of when he sent in those tanks to attack the Russian troops? At that point Georgians and Ossetians were getting along with each other moderately well. Then this clown tosses a match into the powder keg.
If all he loses is half his country and most of his military capability he will be getting off easy. Meanwhile the Ossetians blame the Georgians for the destruction of their homes and the deaths of their family and now you can bet every Georgian will be pushed out of South Ossetia at the point of a gun. Nothing good can come of this and all because this jerk decided to play the Big Man.

[Sergeant Thorne]

It’s sad to think that the leaders of modern countries could even contemplate sacrificing lives over some fly speck piece of land. (yes, I know it’s more than that)

... Welcome to the world we live in. Humanity ain't gettin' any better.

[Will Robinson]

It’s sad to think that the leaders of modern countries could even contemplate sacrificing lives over some fly speck piece of land. (yes, I know it’s more than that)

I say, let the Russians have those disputed little enclaves, and get it over with, it seems that they don’t want to be part of Georgia anyway.

How about Kuwait, it's just a fly speck of land... were you OK with Saddam taking it back in '90? Or were you all Rah Rah let's go get some!?

[Ford Prefect]

There are some significant differences between Kuwait and Georgia and before that Kosovo.
A)The majority in Ossetia/Kosovo wanted to succeed from the country they were a part of. No one in Kuwait wanted to become Iraqi.
B) Ossetia/Kosovo were territories of a sovereign nation being carved off. Kuwait was a sovereign nation being conquered by force.

In current parlance Russia is respecting Georgia's sovereignty and independence but not it's territorial integrity.

[MD-1118]

It was my understanding that the US is the country that helps little countries break away from big countries. So shouldn't we support Russia and Ossetia? O_o

More to the point, though, all of this began when we started meddling in the affairs of other countries. Why do we have to play Big Brother and be the guardians of the world? And, if we're going to accept that role and do as we've been doing, why are we complaining when the obvious resulting events unfold? I say we do what we're saying, or we say what we're doing, but we have to make up our mind if we expect any kind of outcomes even remotely resembling acceptable. This country is either indecisive or hypocritical, I can't tell which it is. =/

[Krom]

This country is either indecisive or hypocritical, I can't tell which it is. =/

Both. Gotta have a hand in everything, but we don't want to get em dirty either.

The world still needs to do a tremendous amount of growing up before we ever see any kind of peaceful results. The way it is right now, we keep on getting into fights and the only result we get is a guarantee that everyone loses.

Violence isn't the answer, but sometimes you gotta let them slug it out with each other and learn that for themselves.

[MD-1118]

Violence isn't the answer, but sometimes you gotta let them slug it out with each other and learn that for themselves.

Now there's a proposal I can back one hundred percent.

[Spidey]

Will, Kinda what Ford said….

Oh yea, I never go “Rah Rah” when it comes to war! Also Kuwait was in American interests, and I was still on the fence on that war.

EDIT: On the lighter side, I was just watching the BBC, and the commentator said “The Russians have control of the ‘Port ‘O’ Potty‘” ( Port of Poti) It’s the accent thing, I had to laugh.

[Will Robinson]

Will, Kinda what Ford said….

Oh yea, I never go “Rah Rah” when it comes to war! Also Kuwait was in American interests, and I was still on the fence on that war.....

I don't see how Kuwait is in American interests any more than the sovereignty of a breakaway republik of the former Soviet Union that we have encouraged to make that break and join our 'security club'...long term or short term, I'd say protecting the Georgians, and the value of our invitation to them, is more in our interest than Kuwait keeping control of her oil fields.

[Ford Prefect]

Ah but Will if you substitute the name Kuwait with America then you get a better idea of who controls those oil fields. Kuwait is very user friendly to international oil companies, Iraq was rather less so.

[Will Robinson]

Ah but Will if you substitute the name Kuwait with America then you get a better idea of who controls those oil fields. Kuwait is very user friendly to international oil companies, Iraq was rather less so.

I understand the benefits of Kuwaiti princes controlling the oil spigot compared to Saddam being in charge...and I was a big proponent of the mantra "Saddam shouldn't be allowed to control 30% of the worlds oil supply and 55% if he takes Saudi Arabia next..."

But in the grand scheme of things, Saddam taking Kuwait is certainly no more harmful to American (read, western civilization) interests than Russia bullying most of Europe into the scared shitless position which is what they will do if they are left unchallenged when they crush these breakaway republiks under their boot.

I'm a little surprised that other western players don't recognize the U.S.'s inability to lead on this due to current circumstances and jump out in front of this issue to form the coalition that could have turned Russia back in no time. England or France could have said Hell no you don't!, started shipping their resources into position and very publicly called for everyone to come running to help them do what is right. A few carrier groups from three big countries steaming full speed into range and delivering a 24 hour notice that the bombing will take place all over the Russian military personnel in Georgia if they aren't seen making a very hasty retreat, etc. and you would have Putin deciding it isn't worth getting beat down over. Instead he got to see all of us make that decision.

I think most of Europe is still scared of the big Russian Bear... battered wife syndrome.

Poland is the only one fighting back this week. Go Poland!!

[Bet51987]

I'm a little surprised that other western players don't recognize the U.S.'s inability to lead on this due to current circumstances and jump out in front of this issue to form the coalition that could have turned Russia back in no time.

I keep thinking about that too but sadly the U.N. and the E.U. are nothing but a joke and NATO is just another acronym for U.S.

And, I can see "president" Putin sitting in his office holding a red highlighter while staring at a map of the former USSR.

Bee

[Spidey]

Will, what if Russia didn’t back off, are you ready for ww3?

[Will Robinson]

Will, what if Russia didn’t back off, are you ready for ww3?

Well my whole premise for doing anything like I suggested is based on the ability of the air forces of the coalition to control the sky over Georgia.
So if that capability exists then Putin would have three choices, retreat, stay and be slaughtered or launch nuclear weapons in retaliation.

I don't think he would be willing to take a return salvo of nuclear weapons from France, Great Britain and the U.S. over this so I believe he would retreat as quickly as he could before the results could only be described as a loss for Russia's military. He would declare his mission accomplished and pull back before the bombing took place or immediately after seeing it was no bluff.

[Tunnelcat]

What's McCain's interest here? Stirring the pot for political gain, to make him look presidential? Last I heard, he's NOT our President yet. So why is he sticking his nose in it? Something smells rotten with McCain and his surrogate's dealings in Georgia.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/104/story/46982.html

[Will Robinson]

I think when you are trying to get elected as President it's OK to try and look Presidential....sort of like a singer sings at an audition for signers...

At least McCains camp didn't credit him for the so called cease-fire like Obama's guy did! Lol!

[Tunnelcat]

They both should keep out of it until they know all the nuances of the problem and quit rushing out sound byte 'solutions'. But McCain's lobbyist money connection is just ------- bad. I have no other word for it.