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Countries in Crisis: Mexico
December 8, 2008 | 1613 GMT

As the year draws to a close, the Stratfor team has been re-evaluating the stability of several key countries in the international system. In many cases the results have been pessimistic (even by our often jaundiced standards). This effort has given rise to our Countries in Crisis series, and on Tuesday, Dec. 9, Stratfor will begin the publication of that series’ second installment: an overview of Mexico.

The Mexican state is undergoing the most severe challenges it has faced since the 1910-1920 Mexican Revolution. Unlike the deep and overlapping complexities that threaten to shatter the first country in our series, Ukraine, Mexico’s problems can be boiled down to illicit drugs. The country’s geography almost dictates that Mexico’s City’s writ will be ignored across wide tracts of the country, and current efforts to bring law and order to the Mexican frontier are threatening the central functionality of the state itself. In 2008 alone, Mexico has already suffered more deaths from drug-related violence than all coalition deaths in Iraq since the war’s beginning in 2003.

Stratfor will delve deeply into the Mexican crisis in two parts, with a supplemental addendum. First, we will dissect the economic and political trends that run alongside the cartel wars, highlighting where there is hope that Mexico may yet avoid the fate of degenerating into a failed state and where such hope is unwarranted. Second, we will look at the geographic, institutional and security factors that have caused and exacerbated Mexico’s cartel wars. Finally, we will present our 2008 cartel report, an annual publication that will serve as an addendum to the Countries in Crisis series. The report will chronicle in detail the continuing evolution of the drug war in 2008, showing how Mexican cartels have evolved and spread their influence not only throughout Mexico but also across the border into the United States and into the wider world.

The next country in our Countries in Crisis series will be Pakistan, which Stratfor anticipates will have its very existence threatened in the year to come. (For now, as the forecast develops, it assumes there will not be a broad conflict with India in the aftermath of the Nov. 26-30 Mumbai attacks.)

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/200812 ... sis_mexico

Pot, cocaine, heroin and americans' other favorite \"recreational\" drugs are killing people with greater intensity now- and not just from overdoses- from BULLETS, torture and DECAPITATION. If you like doing drugs, F-YOU. Go die in the streets of Mexico.

ThunderBunny wrote:
Pot, cocaine, heroin and americans' other favorite "recreational" drugs are killing people with greater intensity now- and not just from overdoses- from BULLETS, torture and DECAPITATION. If you like doing drugs, F-YOU. Go die in the streets of Mexico.

I don't use drugs.

But the first question I have is "why not legalize?" Worked for alcohol, did it not? (Not a rhetorical question, either.)

You can rant and rage all you want, and people will still do drugs…it’s human nature.

The only part of this senario that is unnatural is the fact that recreational drugs are illegal.

So rant on….

I always wondered about how a plant became illegal to grow for your personal entertainent..

Money

People who think they know better than you what's best for you - or who think their superior morality entitles them to impose their values on you - and not scrupling to use force to compel you to do what they want you to do made it illegal.

What I don't get is Mexico is rich in resources. It's wealth is comparable to South Korea and India (probably not since October). What does this country need? I was there last month. It's not good.
Is there such a thing as a market reboot? Could an economic collapse reset their financial system?


ThunderBunny, you sound like you know what you're saying but let me take it one step further. The powerful drug trade isn't the cause for Mexico's condition. Many of Mexico's poor see it as the best paying jobs available.

shaktazuki wrote:People who think they know better than you what's best for you - or who think their superior morality entitles them to impose their values on you - and not scrupling to use force to compel you to do what they want you to do made it illegal.

No. It was addicts who needed money for their habits, who would rob, rape, sell themselves, murder and ultimately become just a complete parasite on the population is what caused drug laws to evolve.

woodchip wrote:

shaktazuki wrote:People who think they know better than you what's best for you - or who think their superior morality entitles them to impose their values on you - and not scrupling to use force to compel you to do what they want you to do made it illegal.

No. It was addicts who needed money for their habits, who would rob, rape, sell themselves, murder and ultimately become just a complete parasite on the population is what caused drug laws to evolve.

I've never heard about someone murdered for alcohol money...

Yeah booze is the safe one.

edit:

Octopus wrote:Yeah booze is the safe one.

Really ? Compare.

Sarcasm

Do tell.

Sorry, I need emoticon training. That post is fixed now.

I wish \"drugs\" weren't always lumped together. I do not equate the use of pot to heroin or cocain.

I think both sides would see their agenda progressed if this was stopped.

Dakatsu wrote:

woodchip wrote:

shaktazuki wrote:People who think they know better than you what's best for you - or who think their superior morality entitles them to impose their values on you - and not scrupling to use force to compel you to do what they want you to do made it illegal.

No. It was addicts who needed money for their habits, who would rob, rape, sell themselves, murder and ultimately become just a complete parasite on the population is what caused drug laws to evolve.

I've never heard about someone murdered for alcohol money...

I have.

It's not the user's problem, TB, it's the government's problem.

Sorry.

Octopus wrote:What I don't get is Mexico is rich in resources. It's wealth is comparable to South Korea and India (probably not since October). What does this country need? I was there last month. It's not good.
Is there such a thing as a market reboot? Could an economic collapse reset their financial system?

If I remember correctly from my philosophy class on business ethics, there were also a lot of US-run sweatshops in Mexico. The conditions aren't very good. Plus there are a lot of Mexicans who traveled into the US to work illegally for less (but more to these people)but in better conditions. So perhaps it is the lack of stable, good work that is causing Mexico so much problems. I have no idea how the Mexican government is working to solve this problem, but it seems to me they're sort of laid back about it, because money is going into their economy from another country's economy.

Mexico's problems are our problems. For one thing, they are our neighbors. If it's very hard to find good work, where do you think they'll go? Here. Would they even try to come here legally? I don't know, but we certainly do have thousands of illegal Mexicans working for cheap employers who want to get rich from turning the other cheek. With rapes, torture and murders going on that relates to harmful drugs, these people would want to move somewhere safer to them, where there the laws are more strict and enforced. Up to a few years ago, our borders were easily penetrated.

I still say we buy Mexico. We wouldnt be losing money to another country and not dealing with so many illegal immigrants if someone would step in to work with the ongoing problems. I've met a lot of Mexicans and they're hardworking people trying to speak our language and make life better for their families.

If you want to \"reboot\" Mexico to get the average Mexican citizen to benefit from the country's potential you would need to eliminate the corruption in their government which is as fundamental to it as our constitution is to our government and get the macho man mentality of the everyday Mexican to accept the female as an equal.

And of course the drug money will still be there even if the government suddenly became reasonably corrupt instead of completely corrupt so you still need to fix that.

Legalizing drugs in America would kill the drug money influence but only if you agree to let the Mexicans and South Americans export their product to us legally otherwise there could still be a market for their product. Unless the U.S. market is supplied with a cheaper legal source than the south of the border gang is willing to provide.

So, to condense it for you, to clean up Mexico:
Replace their corrupt government with one that protects all the peoples rights and wipe out the demand for illegal drugs in America.

Do that and they will be able to thrive and in no time Americans with investment capital will pour into Mexico buying up opportunity and we'll have them annexed in no time!

Not to mention that there is an increasingly abbreviated timetable for this - Mexico gets a lot of income from oil and Mexican oil production is dropping like a stone. This could worsen the economic situation south of the border.

And you're right. Cops, politicians, and civil servants are all corrupt in Mexico. I've seen my dad pay off two mexican cops on different occasions.

What's the systemic solution for a corrupt system? It's hard for me to believe everyone participating really wants to be corrupt. Don't you think they're sick of it?

Testiculese wrote:It's not the user's problem, TB, it's the government's problem.

Sorry.

Yea, this is the governments burden to bear.

Taking drugs is not immoral, a system that creates unnecessary criminals is.

Octopus wrote:What's the systemic solution for a corrupt system? It's hard for me to believe everyone participating really wants to be corrupt. Don't you think they're sick of it?

Are you talking about Mexico or the US?

MD-1118 wrote:

Octopus wrote:What's the systemic solution for a corrupt system? It's hard for me to believe everyone participating really wants to be corrupt. Don't you think they're sick of it?

Are you talking about Mexico or the US?

Yup... There's no hope...

Not just Mexico's problem, we kick the Taliban out of control in Afghanistan and what do we get, the replanting of the opium poppy fields! Hmmmmmmm......

We never said anything about giving them a good democracy :p

Octopus wrote: What's the systemic solution for a corrupt system? It's hard for me to believe everyone participating really wants to be corrupt. Don't you think they're sick of it?

Batman?

Sorry.
<--Dr. Oc

Octopus wrote:We never said anything about giving them a good democracy :p

There's such a thing as a BAD democracy? Don't tell little Dubya!

Testiculese wrote:It's not the user's problem, TB, it's the government's problem.

Sorry.

Wow, what a cop out.

Absolutely not.

It is 100% the government's problem. If you don't see that, then go ahead and vote for Bush again.

Explain.

I really have to explain something this blindingly obvious? I'll do so with a riddle: Do you see other countries raping their environment to supply us with illegal alcohol?

I'm certainly no advocate of where drug laws currently stand or the war on drugs, but to pass off the problem of drug-related violence as \"the government's problem\" is incredibly naive on every level.

First, responsibility for the violence does not solely lie with the government. I will agree that if all drugs were made legal there would be no illegal drug trade and very little drug violence(at least as it relates to trafficking). The drug policies of the government certainly deserve a large part of the credit.

But just because the government shares some of the responsibility, it doesn't mean that users are without any blame. This is merely a game of supply and demand, after all, and users create the demand. The drug trade only exists because drug users buy drugs -- without users there is no drug trade. In fact, I would take it a step further and argue that drug users are the root of all drug problems. Some people, amazing as it may sound, believe in a little thing called personal responsibility.

Second, we're talking about people being murdered here. I know I'm taking a leap here, but I think most people would consider the murdering of innocent people to be everyone's problem. Who exactly has to be murdered before it becomes your problem?

Third, we live under a \"government of the people, by the people, for the people\". Admittedly, to what degree our government is actually for the people is debatable, but the very notion of the government's problem not being your own is inherently flawed.

And finally, you do pay taxes, right?

MP

Your first point is the entire issue. Remove that and the entire problem goes away. People here can make the drugs in the basement of their own home and not have to go to a dealer, or they can sell them to whoever. The motivation to make these drugs in other countries to get around the criminality of making them here disappears. Problem solved. TB a while back posted an article that people were ruining the redwood forest with illegal crops because they were spraying crap everywhere and polluting the ground. Well, gee, if those crops weren't illegal, they'd be growing them in their own backyard, or probably the basement, and there wouldn't be an issue.

Your second paragraph is completely faulty. Guess what, without Nike, there is no slave labor. People buy shoes. They don't know where they are made. People buy drugs. They don't know where they are made. The users of shoes do have a choice as to what brand they would buy, and can not support Nike for criminal sweatshops. Shoes are legal. Users of drugs cannot shop around for a brand of drugs and not support those who are involved in criminal sweatshop behaviors because the criminality of it is detrimental is setting up 'brand recognition'. Even torrents have the luxury of branding. The cracking groups try real hard to outdo each other in quality and timeliness, and their street cred (their brand) is crucial to them. These people in these other countries have no such incentives. It's a smash-n-grab operation.

The people being murdered is because they might tell the cops where the illegal crops are, costing drug makes millions and millions of dollars. Others are killed to remove competition. It's a very very very very very very very very very very very lucrative criminal distribution network. Remove the criminal part, and the insane profits that attract the criminal elements dry up, and guess what? The problem goes away.

This government is not for the the people at all. Hasn't been for 30 years. The government is not mine. It's not yours. It is actively working against us every step it takes.

I don't pay taxes. Taxes are taken from me.

It is the fault of the government that any of this exists. It certainly is absolutely no fault of mine. Didn't you learn about prohibition? People aren't being murdered anymore so I can buy a six pack, right?

Testiculese wrote:Absolutely not.

It is 100% the government's problem. If you don't see that, then go ahead and vote for Bush again.

I love this game.
Ok uhmmm....
It's Bush's fault that my car's starter is dead!

Apparently you're not intelligent enough to play this game, go pick up a copy of Chutes-n-Ladders.

I would, but I don't know where it was made...

The sad thing is that if the drug trade threatened the \"pokadotted wood fly,\" more people would pay attention. People dying for someone else's addiction means little.

yup