http://www.worldthreats.com/?p=2533
Interesting times. (An old chinese curse.)
United Nations Command Raises Watchcon
This article in the People’s Daily English edition indicates that the United Nations Command has raised the Watchcon to two from three.
“Seoul’s Yonhap News Agency cited unidentified sources that ROK’s Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Korea-United States Combined Forces Command have raised the five-tier alert system by a notch to level two Thursday.”
The possibility of this happening was mentioned in earlier posts.
Analysis. Considering the measures being taken by North Korea to isolate itself, this action should have been expected. Whether or not this is a prelude to the raising of the DEFCON is unknown. However, if the situation between the two Koreas continues to deteriorate, expect the DEFCON to be raised also. Changes in the DEFCON are much more significant as they require that military forces increase their level of preparation for war. These kinds of action greatly disturb the normal training routines of units and may require that items which have short “shelf lives” when opened be issued. These items must then be replaced through the supply chain. These are expenses that the military would rather not absorb.
However, the problem of defending Korea has a distinct nature that no other areas has. That is the ability of the KPA to begin its assault on the South with very little warning. In most conflict scenarios, and this was true with the Warsaw Pact forces, the soldiers spend most of their time in garrisons that are some distance from the border. It takes a finite amount of time for these forces to be assembled, prepared and transported to their initial positions for the start of an offensive.The time it takes to generate these forces and the actions required are easily viewed and very distinctive. Lots of soldiers walking around with live ammunition is a definite sign that all is not well as is tanks being loaded on transporters.
Korea is vastly different. There at least two-thirds of the KPA is forward deployed. They are already in or very close to their initial assault positions. The KPA can pretty much assemble the troops, issue ammunition and start marching South. The warning time is significantly less than we had in Germany.
Then there is the problem of dependents. Germany was an “accompanied” tour. My family went to Germany with me. Korea was not an accompanied tour, at least not in 1976 at Kunsan. There were a couple of reasons for this. Kunsan city was actually pretty primitive then. There were no facilities for families. But the biggest problem was the evacuation of civilians in the event of war. This may be less of a problem now as the infrastructure in Korea has made great advances. But it is still a problem in some areas where Americans are stationed. This may be another reason for raising the Watchcon: more time to get the families out especially from the facilities in Seoul.
It is extremely difficult by design to tell what is going on in the minds of the North Korean leadership. The further they isolate themselves, the greater the danger. The measures taken by the KPA General Staff do not bode well for future events. Hence, the raising of the Watchcon.
Posted by Richard Radcliffe at 8:35 pm
