DescentBB

So Roger Ailes likes Trump because Ailes likes the great ratings and the money that goes along with those ratings. However, Rupert Murdoch hates Trump personally and thinks he's a bombastic ass. What a conundrum.

http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2015/07/ ... rt-murdoch

The problem is, Ailes is the president and chairman of Fox News and Murdoch owns News Corp, which owns Fox News. So what will Fox News do as Trump keeps on winning in the polls and keeps on insulting Fox News' personality Megyn Kelly and pissing off all the other Fox News personalities in the process, including Ailes himself. Someone insults one member of the team and the whole team takes umbrage at that someone. Will Fox News try to break Trump's lead as a front-runner in the polls or will they keep coddling him like a spoiled egomaniac since he may actually win the nomination?

http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/25/media/d ... index.html

wow, tough call for one rooting to see both go down in flames together......

There's no way Trump gets the nomination. Right now he's the loudest and with the most name recognition (other than Bush). But the 15-20% he's polling at is basically his max. As marginal candidates drop out, nobody is going to move to Trump as a second choice or third choice or fourth choice; the people who like him have him as first choice, and the people who don't REALLY don't. So when it's down to like 4 candidates, somebody else is going to be polling at like 45% and Trump is still going to be at 15-20%.

Yeah, wasn't there one poll which had 75% of people essentially stating that they wouldn't even vote for Trump if hell froze over? He's completely unelectable.

Lothar wrote:There's no way Trump gets the nomination. Right now he's the loudest and with the most name recognition (other than Bush). But the 15-20% he's polling at is basically his max. As marginal candidates drop out, nobody is going to move to Trump as a second choice or third choice or fourth choice; the people who like him have him as first choice, and the people who don't REALLY don't. So when it's down to like 4 candidates, somebody else is going to be polling at like 45% and Trump is still going to be at 15-20%.

First, he is now at 28% in the GOP field. Second even some liberals are liking Trump on his stance regarding campaign finance reform:

But there is one contingent of liberals who take a very different view. They believe, cheerfully, that Trump is nothing less than the second coming—of campaign finance reform.

One of them is Harvard Law School professor Lawrence Lessig, arguably the country’s leading proponent of reform, who said the greatest entertainer in politics has done so much to jazz up an otherwise eye-glazing issue that Lessig himself would consider running on the same ticket with Trump as a third-party candidate.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/ ... z3k1B3V0w0

In short Trump continues to climb. It is too early to say where those voters who liked other candidates will throw their support to. What I do see is early on every one was saying Trump was a flash in the pan. Now it seems the pan is burning brightly.

Trump might be a driver for campaign finance reform. He's not going to win, but he can still have a positive influence there. His limitations will become really clear as his opponents focus on him, and his lack of knowledge, along with the personality which, while entertaining, will wear real thin. Just look at the clown, does anyone really want THIS to be the face of America and Americans across the globe?

woodchip wrote:he is now at 28% in the GOP field

Polls have errors. In any case, the same reasoning still applies -- he's basically at his max. Even those who like his stance on one or two issues, very few would be willing to vote for him. Basically everyone who would ever be willing to vote for him is in that 20% or 28% or whatever; he's got all the votes he's going to be able to get. The entire remaining ~3/4 of the primary field would vote for Jeb, or Rubio, or Kasich, or Jindal, or even a joke of a candidate like Santorum, rather than supporting Trump.

And of course this happens every election cycle, and people are shocked by it every election cycle. A fringe candidate captures the imagination of the fringe electorate with fiery rhetoric and populist pandering. They poll really high in the early going, while the serious-mainstream vote is split between a dozen different candidates. But over time, the serious-mainstream vote will be split among only 6 candidates, and then 3, and then 2. That's when guys like Trump and Kucinich fall off. I'm not aware of any serious analysts or political wonks who can even describe a scenario under which Trump might possibly get the nomination ("We are stumped. And we really tried." - NYT)

Think he is at his max? Just rea this today:

In another act of political magic, Trump managed to flip his favorability rating from negative to positive in one poll during the span of a month — a feat that Monmouth University’s Patrick Murray called “astounding.”

“That defies any rule in presidential politics that I’ve ever seen,” Murray, the director Monmouth’s Polling Institute, told The Hill.

Trump’s favorability rose from 20 percent to 52 percent among Republican voters between July and August, Monmouth found.

So now up to 53%. I think Lothar, like the pollsters, you may have to revise your ideas. And yes I know it is still a long way to Nov. 2016.

Oh and a interesting article about "Why not Trump?"

http://theweek.com/articles/573870/why-not-donald-trump

I'll tell you why not: over 65% of the whole public(not just the Republican base) say they would NEVER vote for him. EVER.

Not only has he insulted Latinos, he did it to Asians too. His poll numbers are dropping in every electorate except racist white people. 51% of Latinos wouldn't vote for him tomorrow. He's not going to win the national election by just getting the white vote.

Trump said during a speech in Dubuque in mock broken English:

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politic ... -1.2338344

"Negotiating with Japan, negotiating with China, when these people walk in the room, they don’t say, 'Oh, hello! How’s the weather? It’s so beautiful outside. Isn’t it lovely? How are the Yankees doing? Oh they’re doing wonderful. Great'. They say, 'We want deal!'"

After a news conference where Jorge Ramos was kicked out because he was being a little too aggressive with his questions, one of Trump's security goons had the gall to tell Ramos to: "Get out of my country", even though Ramos IS a U.S. citizen. No, if Trump doesn't go down kicking and screaming either in the primary or the election, I'd be very surprised. He's insulted so many people he's no longer refreshing, he's poisonous and racist.

[youtube]qQP6-slsgSM[/youtube]

Also, people are beginning to see through Trump's pandering. He was asked the other day to share a favorite Bible verse, and he ducked and dodged and was like "no, it's very personal, and I don't want to get in to specifics".

That would be a fine response from someone who didn't claim the Bible as a favorite book, but for someone who does, I expect them to be able to say something coherent.

Probably because Trump never read the Bible.

tunnelcat wrote:Probably because Trump never read the Bible.

http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/M ... uDontWatch -- of course the Bible gets first mention under the "literature" section. (One omission surprised me -- On the Origin of Species. It, along with Mein Kampf, 1984, and the Bible, are my top 4 "yeah, I read it... OK, fine, I read the first 3 pages, but I still have a very strong opinion regarding the merits or lack of merits of this book" books.)

callmeslick wrote:I'll tell you why not: over 65% of the whole public(not just the Republican base) say they would NEVER vote for him. EVER.

And when was that poll taken? Back when Trump first threw his hat in the ring? Oh and do supply a link so we know you are not trying to inflate the Hindenburg

Lothar wrote:

woodchip wrote:he is now at 28% in the GOP field

Polls have errors. In any case, the same reasoning still applies -- he's basically at his max. Even those who like his stance on one or two issues, very few would be willing to vote for him. Basically everyone who would ever be willing to vote for him is in that 20% or 28% or whatever; he's got all the votes he's going to be able to get. The entire remaining ~3/4 of the primary field would vote for Jeb, or Rubio, or Kasich, or Jindal, or even a joke of a candidate like Santorum, rather than supporting Trump.

And of course this happens every election cycle, and people are shocked by it every election cycle. A fringe candidate captures the imagination of the fringe electorate with fiery rhetoric and populist pandering. They poll really high in the early going, while the serious-mainstream vote is split between a dozen different candidates. But over time, the serious-mainstream vote will be split among only 6 candidates, and then 3, and then 2. That's when guys like Trump and Kucinich fall off. I'm not aware of any serious analysts or political wonks who can even describe a scenario under which Trump might possibly get the nomination ("We are stumped. And we really tried." - NYT)

What you and a lot of main stream prognosticators are missing is Trump is tapping into deep feelings of the American electorate. Reading this WSJ piece, the reporter is finding out just how deep it is and that it crosses party lines, and ethnicity:

I’ve written before about an acquaintance—late 60s, northern Georgia, lives on Social Security, voted Obama in ’08, not partisan, watches Fox News, hates Wall Street and “the GOP establishment.” She continues to be so ardent for Mr. Trump that she not only watched his speech in Mobile, Ala., on live TV, she watched while excitedly texting with family members

My friend Cesar works the deli counter at my neighborhood grocery store. He is Dominican, an immigrant, early 50s, and listens most mornings to a local Hispanic radio station, La Mega, on 97.9 FM. Their morning show is the popular “El Vacilón de la Mañana,” and after the first GOP debate, Cesar told me, they opened the lines to call-ins, asking listeners (mostly Puerto Rican, Dominican, Mexican) for their impressions. More than half called in to say they were for Mr. Trump. Their praise, Cesar told me a few weeks ago, dumbfounded the hosts.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/america-is- ... 1440715262

Time will tell of course but don't be surprised if Trump continues to rise.

Looks like the truce is over, again.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/er ... -fox-news/

tunnelcat wrote:Looks like the truce is over, again.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/er ... -fox-news/

When you made the poll- did you mean 'who is going to have the bigger ego' or 'who is going to survive?'

I made the poll to see who wins the battle between 2 egotistical billionaires, Murdoch vs. Trump. If Fox News wins, Trump loses the election. If Trump wins the nomination, Fox News loses, which shows us that Fox News finally didn't influence conservatives in an election cycle since their inception. This outcome also benefitsTrump by showing more centrist voters he's not some lackey chosen by Fox News.