numbers to ponder

[callmeslick]

in light of some folks on the campaign trail suggesting that foreigners were 'taking jobs' from Americans, or others citing the unemployment numbers and underemployment numbers as 'proof' that the Obama Recovery(whatever that means) is going badly, we have this:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ ... ?li=AA4Zjn

in other words, 5 million jobs are in need of someone to take them. People are not leaving jobs to do so, suggesting satisfaction with current employment status. The number of potential applicants to jobs is the lowest it's been in over 15 years. Virtually EVERY statistic in that report flies in the face of what the demagogues wish you to believe.

[Lothar]

5 million jobs are in need of someone to take them. People are not leaving jobs to do so, suggesting satisfaction with current employment status

Actually, people are leaving current jobs at a higher rate -- BLS seriesJTU00000000QUL shows the number of job quits at close to their 2007 levels. Which matches with JTU00000000HIL which shows the number of new hires at close to their 2007 levels. There's considerably higher turnover as people leave jobs for better jobs, compared to in the last 8 years, but still a fair bit of unemployment (August 2015: 8.1 million unemployed) and underemployment and a lot of new openings.

There's still a bit of a market mismatch between labor and jobs. Whether it's offered vs expected salary, perceived job difficulty, training requirements, or something else, there are a lot of open jobs that aren't being filled. Maybe employees are being really picky. Maybe employers are being really picky. Maybe there are only crap jobs out there. Maybe there are a bunch of good jobs with steep entry requirements. The data doesn't say (but there are even more openings coming; these numbers are for June and the preliminary numbers for July show close to 6.2 million openings!)

[callmeslick]

my gut, Lothar, is that we have a lot of undereducated people either unable or unwilling to get the education needed for the modern job market. I might well be wrong, but that perception was forming with me when I was still employed, and poring over applications for open positions in health technology.

[woodchip]

Tell that to the Disney workers who had to train the foreign workers that wound up taking their jobs at a lower wage:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/04/us/la ... ments.html

[callmeslick]

Hell, Woody, we've all heard, seen, or sadly experienced THAT phenomenon. My company had some IT staff do the exact same thing for folks who were going to manage a call center/help desk operation on another continent. Any total number will contain those situations and countless other variants. One can only wonder about the trends and look into the details.

[Top Gun]

Part of the problem that I saw pop up during my own job search is that so many companies seem to be exclusively looking for candidates who already hold that same position. Even the "entry-level" job listings I was looking at almost universally required 1-3 years of experience in that role. I certainly wasn't alive to experience it, but I've heard so many people talk about hiring practices of a few decades back, when many first-timers were hired based more on their character than anything else, and then given on-the-job training to get experience. I understand that the recession made a lot of companies gun-shy, but if you're only hiring people who already have those jobs, you're basically creating a ridiculous level of insularity, and it's going to bite you in the ass one way or another.

[Tunnelcat]

my gut, Lothar, is that we have a lot of undereducated people either unable or unwilling to get the education needed for the modern job market. I might well be wrong, but that perception was forming with me when I was still employed, and poring over applications for open positions in health technology.

There's also the issue that it's now very expensive to get a college education, even at a state college. I don't know how much that's discouraging people from getting the education required to obtain a better paying job.

[Spidey]

Another problem to consider filling many of these jobs is…they are jobs a lot of people these days simply do not want to do, even if they are good paying jobs.

I was watching an episode of the NewsHour (ok, I know you hear me say that a lot) and they were talking about the trouble manufacturing was having getting people to work in that sector, even when apprenticeships were offered and other such things that involved on the job training…the conclusion they came to was people just don’t want to get their hands dirty and do manual labor anymore.

[Tunnelcat]

That may be so. I remember CUDA complaining he couldn't find qualified body shop people in a position that pays relatively well. Personally, I don't mind hard physical work. I find it rewarding and it's good exercise. It's just that my older body is saying the opposite anymore.

[woodchip]

Another problem to consider filling many of these jobs is…they are jobs a lot of people these days simply do not want to do, even if they are good paying jobs.

I was watching an episode of the NewsHour (ok, I know you hear me say that a lot) and they were talking about the trouble manufacturing was having getting people to work in that sector, even when apprenticeships were offered and other such things that involved on the job training…the conclusion they came to was people just don’t want to get their hands dirty and do manual labor anymore.

I blame that on the 1-12 education system. Too much emphasis on gearing students toward a 4 year BA instead of balancing the curriculum with the industrial arts. If you don't teach that becoming a mechanic or carpenter is OK then kids will disdain those jobs. Someone needs to wake up the system that not all kids will go to college and there are jobs going begging that don't need a 4 year degree.

[Lothar]

they were talking about the trouble manufacturing was having getting people to work in that sector, even when apprenticeships were offered and other such things that involved on the job training…the conclusion they came to was people just don’t want to get their hands dirty and do manual labor anymore.

I blame that on the 1-12 education system. Too much emphasis on gearing students toward a 4 year BA instead of balancing the curriculum with the industrial arts

That goes back to my comments about a mismatch between labor and employment markets.

It's not just the K-12 education system, or college. It's also culture. We tell kids "go to college to make something of yourself", and act like people who don't go to college are lesser human beings. People who work in factories and get their hands dirty are often portrayed as losers on television, while the guy with an office job is portrayed as a winner. Parents often say things to their kids like "go to college so you don't end up like..." and point to the guy working in their yard or stocking shelves at the store or driving the delivery truck, or even plumbers and carpenters who make a pretty good living.

[callmeslick]

I blame that on the 1-12 education system. Too much emphasis on gearing students toward a 4 year BA instead of balancing the curriculum with the industrial arts. If you don't teach that becoming a mechanic or carpenter is OK then kids will disdain those jobs. Someone needs to wake up the system that not all kids will go to college and there are jobs going begging that don't need a 4 year degree.

the thing is, virtually ALL valuable professions in 20 years WILL require such degrees, so that is why the emphasis. I'd agree we need to keep industrial arts, fine arts, music and sports in the curriculum, just to develop well-rounded individuals. The loss of those things has more to do with budget cutting than change in emphasis. Every educator I've ever talked with seemed to be quite aware that a certain percentage of students were never going to make it at the college level, but the skills needed to make money are still ever more in the range of reading directions, following them and utilizing higher technology to get the job done.....even for mechanics and plumbers.


addendum--interesting to note that today, Obama was pushing for folks to do apprenticeships, noting that those who do can expect to earn $300,000 more over a career than they otherwise would.