DescentBB

Now that Trump has become the presumptive Republican nominee, apparently there's a new game going on in the states that haven't had their primaries yet, and I'm talking about those remaining states with closed primaries. Any remaining open primary states left are nothing but crazy free-for-all's, but now people figured out a way to game those states with closed primaries as well. My husband was talking to his long time friend down in California who's a die hard, life long Republican. He was telling him that instead of wasting his vote on Trump, who he enthusiastically supports and who's already cinched up the nomination anyway, now says he'd like to throw a monkey wrench into the Democratic race just for the pure fun of it. What he did was re-register as a Democrat since there was time to change, just so he can vote for Bernie on June 2nd in the California Primary and screw over Hillary. Whether this will backfire in some way, it's anyone's guess. One less vote for Queen Beetch Hillary is fine by me.

Oregon's primary is on May 17th. Since this race is so nutty this year, it turns out approximately 111,000 Oregon voters switched their party affiliation from formerly Independent to either Republican or Democratic because of our closed primary and I'm guessing a lot more people wanted to have a say this year. A whopping 3/4 of those voters, around 82,000 of them, switched to the Democratic Party, which includes my husband and I. Whether Bernie benefits from all this is anyone's guess. But it appears that it's either stop Trump, or stop Hillary competition that's going on with many voters in a lot of states this year. How 2 candidates with such historically high unfavorable ratings are cinching their party's nominations, I don't know.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/22/politics/ ... index.html

LOL! That's great, but... Damn commies.

It's funny, though, because Bernie would have been a much tougher opponent for Trump, IMO, if he had won the nomination. (that's future, past-tense, boys and girls )

tunnelcat wrote:How 2 candidates with such historically high unfavorable ratings are cinching their party's nominations, I don't know.

Because few people realize that parties don't exactly nominate candidates on popular vote.

vision wrote:

tunnelcat wrote:How 2 candidates with such historically high unfavorable ratings are cinching their party's nominations, I don't know.

Because few people realize that parties don't exactly nominate candidates on popular vote.

And thus we now have huge groups of angry disenfranchised voters rejecting the candidates from both parties and a Republican nominee who's the biggest egomaniac jerk on the entire planet and an almost Democratic nominee who's an unlikable, slimy, butt-kissing, arrogant flip flopper.

So apparently Republicans haven't forgotten the old tactic started by Rush Limbaugh in 2008 called: "Operation Chaos". Not that it did any good. Obama was still reelected.

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2008/ ... r_primary2

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/po ... /81592890/

Then, we have Trump lovers asking for to Democrats to switch to the Republican Party and vote for Trump. It's called the "Ditch and Switch". Voting is so Machiavellian. We might as well have open primaries since people have figured out ways around the closed primaries anyway.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/20 ... nd-switch/

https://www.independentsentinel.com/tru ... democrats/

Sergeant Thorne wrote:LOL! That's great, but... Damn commies.

It's funny, though, because Bernie would have been a much tougher opponent for Trump, IMO, if he had won the nomination. (that's future, past-tense, boys and girls )

I agree. I don't think Hillary is a shoe in to win. She just doesn't generate the excitement that Bernie does and since Republicans hate her like the plague, along with a few Democrats, they might just come out and vote in a much bigger show of force come this November. I hope people are happy with Trump because that's who we're probably going to get.

Hillary gets indicted and Crazy Bernie will be the nominee. Doesn't matter, Trump still wins. And TC, I'm curious as to why you do not post such virulent outbursts against Hillary as you do Trump? Lord knows she is 10x worse morally than Trump ever was...not to mention more incompetent.

vision wrote:

tunnelcat wrote:How 2 candidates with such historically high unfavorable ratings are cinching their party's nominations, I don't know.

Because few people realize that parties don't exactly nominate candidates on popular vote.

That probably explains Hillary, but not Trump.

woodchip wrote:Hillary gets indicted and Crazy Bernie will be the nominee. Doesn't matter, Trump still wins. And TC, I'm curious as to why you do not post such virulent outbursts against Hillary as you do Trump? Lord knows she is 10x worse morally than Trump ever was...not to mention more incompetent.

Don't charge out of the gate so fast woody. Bernie does better against Trump in the last poll. Even better than Hillary. Trump has a couple of almost insurmountable problems. A wide margin of women detest him and I can guarantee you that with an 87% unfavorable rating among Latinos, they'll be the nail in his presidential coffin. The only way Trump will win is if Latinos and women stay home during voting. He isn't going to win on the angry white man vote alone.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/30/politics/ ... index.html

Spidey wrote:That probably explains Hillary, but not Trump.

Well, as of 2015, 39% of Republicans viewed Trump as very unfavorable. But since he's won the nomination now, I'm guessing that most Republicans will choke down their revulsion and vote for him in the general, except for those old line Republicans who truly despise the man. Plus, there are a lot of conservative pundits out there that positively hate Trump. Libertarians hate him too and will probably cast their votes to a third party Libertarian candidate.

http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-m ... ebate.aspx

woodchip wrote:Hillary gets indicted and Crazy Bernie will be the nominee. Doesn't matter, Trump still wins. And TC, I'm curious as to why you do not post such virulent outbursts against Hillary as you do Trump? Lord knows she is 10x worse morally than Trump ever was...not to mention more incompetent.

So just how far do you have to have your head buried in the sand to not see the polls stating quite clearly that either Democratic candidate would kick Trump's ass in the general, and that the Democrats as a whole have a substantial leg up in the electoral college count before a single vote is cast?

tunnelcat wrote:

woodchip wrote:Hillary gets indicted and Crazy Bernie will be the nominee. Doesn't matter, Trump still wins. And TC, I'm curious as to why you do not post such virulent outbursts against Hillary as you do Trump? Lord knows she is 10x worse morally than Trump ever was...not to mention more incompetent.

Don't charge out of the gate so fast woody. Bernie does better against Trump in the last poll. Even better than Hillary. Trump has a couple of almost insurmountable problems. A wide margin of women detest him and I can guarantee you that with an 87% unfavorable rating among Latinos, they'll be the nail in his presidential coffin. The only way Trump will win is if Latinos and women stay home during voting. He isn't going to win on the angry white man vote alone.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/30/politics/ ... index.html

Spidey wrote:That probably explains Hillary, but not Trump.

Well, as of 2015, 39% of Republicans viewed Trump as very unfavorable. But since he's won the nomination now, I'm guessing that most Republicans will choke down their revulsion and vote for him in the general, except for those old line Republicans who truly despise the man. Plus, there are a lot of conservative pundits out there that positively hate Trump. Libertarians hate him too and will probably cast their votes to a third party Libertarian candidate.

http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-m ... ebate.aspx

when Trump gets done tearing apart Hillary for protecting Bill and his women abusing ways, a lot more women will be for him.

Top Gun wrote:

woodchip wrote:Hillary gets indicted and Crazy Bernie will be the nominee. Doesn't matter, Trump still wins. And TC, I'm curious as to why you do not post such virulent outbursts against Hillary as you do Trump? Lord knows she is 10x worse morally than Trump ever was...not to mention more incompetent.

So just how far do you have to have your head buried in the sand to not see the polls stating quite clearly that either Democratic candidate would kick Trump's ass in the general, and that the Democrats as a whole have a substantial leg up in the electoral college count before a single vote is cast?

I believe I linked a poll where Trump now beats Hillary. I suggest you start looking at recent polls instead of 6 month old ones

6 months old...riiiiiight.

Also the electoral college problem, just for kicks. You really see the most polarizing candidate in modern political history overcoming that?

And I'll raise you:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... clinton_39

boy, you cite the historically inaccurate Rasmussen(they had Romney winning, for instance), and overlook the other 3 polls which not only have Trump behind, but Clinton over 50%

Slick, before you say "Historically inaccurate" read this:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives ... r-ratings/

While Rasmussen is not the best, they are not the worst either. Also Rasmussen has the 2nd highest number of polls to draw inference from.

we used to toss them, and PPP out, and start with analyzing the rest for comparison with internal polling. Sort of the right/left outliers, as a rule.

If you take the average of all the polls that say Trump wins and all the ones that say Hillary wins, Trump still loses to Hillary. Only Rassmussen, Fox News, USAToday and SurveyUSA have Trump winning, out of ALL the other polls. All the rest say he's a loser against Hillary.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -5491.html

Even if Trump goes after Bill, his affairs and Hillary's reaction to them, most women will still give Hillary a break. Most wives tend to stand by their husbands when other women suddenly accuse their husbands of having affairs. It's a natural reaction. Love makes people do crazy things. However, it still won't erase Trump's constant and very high disregard for intelligence of most women. Trump also has a snowball's chance in Hell of winning over Latinos anyway.

Now, in a Trump verses Sanders race, the polls reveal that Trump is even more of a loser.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -5565.html

I don't even care which ones you look at, but cherry-picking the one that says "Trump wins!" over the, oh, dozen or so saying "HIllary/Bernie wins handily!" is a rather special level of head-in-sand thinking.

And the "polls" had Jimmy "The Rabbit" Carter beating Reagan 2 weeks before the election.

Top Gun wrote:I don't even care which ones you look at, but cherry-picking the one that says "Trump wins!" over the, oh, dozen or so saying "HIllary/Bernie wins handily!" is a rather special level of head-in-sand thinking.

And keep your head in the sand:

Dead heat: Trump, Clinton tied in 3 swing-state polls

The poll shows close races in Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/t ... nia-222994

You really have to remember, Hillary is not Obama.

note the massive undecideds in those Quinnipiac surveys, and that Bernie does better.

Yes, but Crazy Bernie won't win the nomination to run against Trump.

don't be that sure...........


That said, I am expecting a sort of large crew to be replacing the 40 year old roof on the Delaware house in the coming week. Until then, I'm thinking of spray painting "Run, Joe, Run!!!" in large letters, for all travelling into Philly by air to see up on the current roof.

woodchip wrote:And I'll raise you:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... clinton_39

Anyone else notice that this poll only relates to a hypothetical situation? It says so right in the second paragraph.

more incisive polling!!!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 22551.html

Newest polling shows a slightly better chance for Trump, but just barely.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the ... ite-house/

The entire Quinnipiac poll. It's still an uphill slog for Trump if he's running against Hillary, but a win for him IS possible. It would be a far more decisive victory for the Dems if Sanders was the nominee however.

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quin ... aseID=2345

And now we have a Reuters rolling poll showing Trump/Clinton neck and neck:

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y ... 0/type/day

current bookmakers odds:
Hillary--4 to 11
Trump--3-1
Bernie--20-1
Biden--60-1

And what were the odds of Trump winning the GOP last July?

woodchip wrote:And what were the odds of Trump winning the GOP last July?

dunno. I know they were around 15-1 when I first proposed the bet here.

woodchip wrote:And what were the odds of Trump winning the GOP last July?

Infinity to one?

Odds of a large asteroid hitting the earth are millions to one…until…BAM!

very good analogy, Spidey, on many levels.

tunnelcat wrote:

woodchip wrote:And what were the odds of Trump winning the GOP last July?

Infinity to one?

That kind of logic I can't argue with