DescentBB

Given the heavily debate-oriented nature of the other thread on ID, I thought it might be useful start another one just exploring ID at an intuitive level. I figure that'd give people a better feel for it than me endlessly telling everyone what it is. So, this thread isn't for debating origins or bashing ID--take that to the other thread. This one is for playing with some ID problems, and getting an intuitive feel for how it works. It's just to get some experience with the kinds of the sorts of things ID thinks about, see some of the considerations it has to make, and see how solid (or not) its conclusions are (and how solid they aren't, depending on the circumstance). Just have fun with it.

I'll list some scenarios below. What I'd like is for you to fill in your best rational, scientific response--what's the most reasonable thing to assume is happening? (And maybe, why?) If you need more information before making a decision, go ahead and say that.

(Note: These are all entirely hypothetical and purely for fun and to make you think about ID. No trick questions. Your responses will not be graded. )

1. Scrabble tiles on the table. Suppose you see some scrabble tiles on the table at your house. You don't know anything about where they came from or how they got there. If you see the following, what do you infer about how they got there?

a. All the tiles are face down.



b. The tiles are jumbled randomly, some face up, some face down. There are a couple hundred tiles altogether. Among the face-up tiles, you can make out the word "H E L M" in a jagged diagonal line, more or less in sequence.



c. All of the tiles are face down except for 5 of them. Those 5 are aligned on a horizontal line, right next to each other, and spell out "HELLO".



d. Suppose the situation in c, and in addition, you live alone, your house has been locked all night, and the table was bare when you went to bed.



e. Suppose the situation in c, and in addition, you personally dumped the tiles out of the bag onto the table seconds ago, and watched them land that way.




2. Moon landings and asteroids

a. The first moon landing occured on July 20, 1969, in the evening. Suppose on the evening of July 20, 2005 (but not at the same time or anything), a largish meteorite impacts the moon and is observed from earth by interested astronomers.



b. Suppose it impacts the moon on July 20, 2019 (exactly 50 years later), and it matches the time of the moon landing to the minute. Suppose also that it impacts fairly close to the original site--just a few miles away.



c. Suppose it impacts the moon as in (b), and suppose furthermore that there was an ancient Islamic prophecy that said, "In the day that they first leave their homes and set foot in a foreign land, they will not know Me. But after a week of weeks and one more, a star will fall from the sky and then they will then know that there is no God but Allah."



d. Suppose that sometime in the coming year, a dozen or so largish asteroids (over the course of a day) impact the original moon-landing site and the chief research facilities for space exploration in the US (so, NASA takes heavy damage), Russia, China, and every other spacefaring nation. Suppose at the end of the day, nobody on earth is capable of launching anything sizeable into space for at least a year or two.






3. Origins. (Utterly biologically nonsensical, and to my knowledge unreal, situations. Tell me where you think the new species came from.)

a. Suppose a new species of bird is discovered, and scientists verify that its DNA is almost entirely similar to the pigeon's, with a few slight changes. The birds look slightly cuter than pigeons (slight change in the shape of the head and position of the eyes), but there isn't much difference beyond that.



b. Suppose a new species of bird is discovered. It's a lot like a pigeon, but it has tiny arm-like limbs.




c. Suppose a new species of bird is discovered. It is a lot like a pigeon, but instead of flying by flapping, its wings are fairly rigid and it has an incredible secondary resperatory system that allows it to fly like a jet. It's awfully fast.




d. Suppose a new species of bird is discovered. It looks completely similar to a pigeon on the outside, but it has an internal organ that looks like a second brain. It functions like a bilogical version of a computer, deciphering symbols, parsing equations, and it gives the birds the ability to instinctively solve partial differential equations. (When they see one, after a few minutes of thinking, they instinctively inscribe the answer on any available surface.)




e. Suppose a new species of bird is discovered. It looks a lot like a pigeon, and its DNA is identical except in one tiny region. The small changes in that region result in the bird producing proteins that don't do anything, but are shaped like the word "HARVARD". (They aren't visible under a microscope, of course: the shape is determined using some high-powered math.)




f. Suppose an analysis of the bird in (d) shows that its DNA is almost identical to a pigeon's--a few slight mutations to pigeon DNA activate a sequence that codes for the new organ.




g. Suppose a new type of creatures is discovered. It looks utterly unlike any animal on earth--something like the evil offspring of a frog and a bat. It flies, swims, can cling effortlessly to the smoothest surface, responds instinctively to human thought, and can be trained to talk. When they are fully adult, they seem roughly as intelligent as an 8 year old human being.

My own answers:

1. Scrabble tiles on the table. Suppose you see some scrabble tiles on the table at your house. You don't know anything about where they came from or how they got there. If you see the following, what do you infer about how they got there?

a. All the tiles are face down.

Hmm. Clearly somebody's all set up to play Scrabble. Probably it's my husband... (All face-down is improbable, but makes total sense for setting up the game.)


b. The tiles are jumbled randomly, some face up, some face down. There are a couple hundred tiles altogether. Among the face-up tiles, you can make out the word "H E L M" in a jagged diagonal line, more or less in sequence.

Some Scrabble tiles have been randomly dumped on the table. Could have been caused by a messy person, or maybe the bag got knocked over after a game. The word doesn't mean anything, it's just random. If you look long enough, you can usually put together a short word.



c. All of the tiles are face down except for 5 of them. Those 5 are aligned on a horizontal line, right next to each other, and spell out "HELLO".

Uh, hello. Who's leaving messages on my table with Scrabble tiles? (Beyond the improbability of the word in the face-up tiles and the geometric arrangement, "Hello" is a sensible "Look, I can leave messages in your Scrabble tiles!" message...)


d. Suppose the situation in c, and in addition, you live alone, your house has been locked all night, and the table was bare when you went to bed.

That's, um, very weird. Somebody broke into my house to leave me a message with Scrabble tiles. Are there evidences of any sort of break-in? Perhaps I will ask the landlord about it. That's really quite inexplicable, but clearly someone did it.


e. Suppose the situation in c, and in addition, you personally dumped the tiles out of the bag onto the table seconds ago, and watched them land that way.

Uh, that's clearly miraculous, unless some aliens have telekinetic Scrabble tile control. Probably my best explanation would be, God is trying to instill a little more faith in me.



2. Moon landings and asteroids

a. The first moon landing occured on July 20, 1969, in the evening. Suppose on the evening of July 20, 2005 (but not at the same time or anything), a largish meteorite impacts the moon and is observed from earth by interested astronomers.

Meh. Coincidence. Kinda cool, though.


b. Suppose it impacts the moon on July 20, 2019 (exactly 50 years later), and it matches the time of the moon landing to the minute. Suppose also that it impacts fairly close to the original site--just a few miles away.

Meh. Coincidence. FREAKY coincidence, but still... we're not talking unbelievable odds just yet. Without any evidence of someone who could do this... just coincidence. It happens.


c. Suppose it impacts the moon as in (b), and suppose furthermore that there was an ancient Islamic prophecy that said, "In the day that they first leave their homes and set foot in a foreign land, they will not know Me. But after a week of weeks and one more, a star will fall from the sky and then they will then know that there is no God but Allah."

Very freaky. Investigate ancient Islamic prophecy more closely, to see if there is more to this prophecy than meets the eye. See if others have been apparently fulfilled. It could be coincidence, but it definitely deserves attention.


d. Suppose that sometime in the coming year, a dozen or so largish asteroids (over the course of a day) impact the original moon-landing site and the chief research facilities for space exploration in the US (so, NASA takes heavy damage), Russia, China, and every other spacefaring nation. Suppose at the end of the day, nobody on earth is capable of launching anything sizeable into space for at least a year or two.

No question--I didn't believe in aliens before, but we're clearly under attack. Someone's trying to keep us on earth. Rebuild those space facilities, and put some military hardware in space. Now!




3. Origins. (Utterly biologically nonsensical, and to my knowledge unreal, situations. Tell me where you think the new species came from.)

a. Suppose a new species of bird is discovered, and scientists verify that its DNA is almost entirely similar to the pigeon's, with a few slight changes. The birds look slightly cuter than pigeons (slight change in the shape of the head and position of the eyes), but there isn't much difference beyond that.

Heh, cute, a new species of bird evolved, specially adapted to get the most bread crumbs at the park.



b. Suppose a new species of bird is discovered. It's a lot like a pigeon, but it has tiny arm-like limbs.

That's, um, weird. I suppose it would depend on what the DNA similarities were--is this a big change or a smal change for pigeons? Do they use those arms for anything? I guess it probably evolved, but... wow. Weird. I don't know enough biology to be able to assess what's going on here.



c. Suppose a new species of bird is discovered. It is a lot like a pigeon, but instead of flying by flapping, its wings are fairly rigid and it has an incredible secondary resperatory system that allows it to fly like a jet. It's awfully fast.

Okay, that's designed, unless somebody has a darned good theory to explain it. Somebody's clearly messing with the pigeons. I don't know who to blame--genetic engineering can't accomplish anything close to that, yet, and I can't see why God would create such an animal out of the blue. And I don't believe in aliens. Still, somebody did it...


d. Suppose a new species of bird is discovered. It looks completely similar to a pigeon on the outside, but it has an internal organ that looks like a second brain. It functions like a bilogical version of a computer, deciphering symbols, parsing equations, and it gives the birds the ability to instinctively solve partial differential equations. (When they see one, after a few minutes of thinking, they instinctively inscribe the answer on any available surface.)

Somebody messed with the pigeons to turn them into computers? That's got to be some sort of joke. It's clearly intentional--the organ does the bird no natural good--but design theory has a tough time here: why would someone do this to a pigeon? Verrrry odd. I would probably be very confused for a long time until I got a good explanation for this. It definitely isn't evolution, though--way too complicated. Looks like some sort of design. Looks like an academic practical joke, really. Maybe some advanced alien genetic engineers got drunk one night...



e. Suppose a new species of bird is discovered. It looks a lot like a pigeon, and its DNA is identical except in one tiny region. The small changes in that region result in the bird producing proteins that don't do anything, but are shaped like the word "HARVARD". (They aren't visible under a microscope, of course: the shape is determined using some high-powered math.)

Darned Harvard genetic engineers need to stop messing with the pigeons.



f. Suppose an analysis of the bird in (d) shows that its DNA is almost identical to a pigeon's--a few slight mutations to pigeon DNA activate a sequence that codes for the new organ.

That's just strange. Perhaps pigeons as a whole came from somewhere else than the rest of life on earth--maybe they're a long lost alien genetic experiment? That does seem to indicate pigeons were designed, even if that design was invisible for a long time. Evolution doesn't account for PDE-solving pigeons, and it definitely doesn't account for pigeons with latent PDE-solving power. Perhaps something is directing evolution, and this is its idea of a practical joke.



g. Suppose a new type of creatures is discovered. It looks utterly unlike any animal on earth--something like the evil offspring of a frog and a bat. It flies, swims, can cling effortlessly to the smoothest surface, responds instinctively to human thought, and can be trained to talk. When they are fully adult, they seem roughly as intelligent as an 8 year old human being.

Alien origin? Strange evolutionary history? Modern special creation? Demonic manifestation? Who knows. I'd need more information.

1. Scrabble tiles on the table.
a. All the tiles are face down.

My wife must've picked up Scrabble when she was out, and wanted to play. Could've possibly been someone else.

b. The tiles are jumbled randomly, some face up, some face down. There are a couple hundred tiles altogether. Among the face-up tiles, you can make out the word "H E L M" in a jagged diagonal line, more or less in sequence.

She just dumped them out without bothering to turn them all face down. The word is random.

c. All of the tiles are face down except for 5 of them. Those 5 are aligned on a horizontal line, right next to each other, and spell out "HELLO".

She left me a message. Awww... I'm going to spell "I LOVE YOU" and leave them for her to find. I really hope it was her who left the message, and not my friend Krystien.

d. Suppose the situation in c, and in addition, you live alone, your house has been locked all night, and the table was bare when you went to bed.

I live alone?

I'm going to pay extra close attention to anyone who has a key to my place. Whoever did it is bound to slip. Then I'm going to fill their [office / car / bathroom] with [packing peanuts / popcorn / balloons / livestock].

e. Suppose the situation in c, and in addition, you personally dumped the tiles out of the bag onto the table seconds ago, and watched them land that way.

I dumped the tiles and they landed in a perfect "HELLO" with everything else face down? All lined up the same way?

First off, I'm checking to see if the "hello" tiles are taped together. Then I'll look for magnets or anything else that would reasonably affect the way the tiles fell. Then I'm going to really freak out. Probably write "who are you" and put the rest of the tiles in the bag, and see who I'm talking to.

2. Moon landings and asteroids
a. The first moon landing occured on July 20, 1969, in the evening. Suppose on the evening of July 20, 2005 (but not at the same time or anything), a largish meteorite impacts the moon and is observed from earth by interested astronomers.

1 in 365 chance of the asteroid happening to hit on that day. No biggie.

b. Suppose it impacts the moon on July 20, 2019 (exactly 50 years later), and it matches the time of the moon landing to the minute. Suppose also that it impacts fairly close to the original site--just a few miles away.

Very strange. I'll definitely want to check the time and location more closely. Brainstorming hypotheses: Media fabrication? NASA prank? Alien involvement?

c. Suppose it impacts the moon as in (b), and suppose furthermore that there was an ancient Islamic prophecy...

Provided the prophecy really says that and it's known to be ancient... Allah Akhbar.

d. a dozen or so largish asteroids (over the course of a day) impact the original moon-landing site and the chief research facilities for space exploration...

Obviously somebody doesn't want us in space.

Do we respond with "yes sir, leaving space alone, SIR!" or do we start launching military spacecraft? I don't know -- more threat assessment needs done.

3. Origins.
a. Suppose a new species of bird is discovered, and scientists verify that its DNA is almost entirely similar to the pigeon's, with a few slight changes. The birds look slightly cuter than pigeons (slight change in the shape of the head and position of the eyes), but there isn't much difference beyond that.

Mutation. It remains to be seen how selection and drift will play out.

b. Suppose a new species of bird is discovered. It's a lot like a pigeon, but it has tiny arm-like limbs.

Strange. I want to know protein / DNA information. If the changes are believable from mutation, that's the most likely explanation. Even if not, I want to see research on those genes in other birds.

c. Suppose a new species of bird is discovered. It is a lot like a pigeon, but instead of flying by flapping, its wings are fairly rigid and it has an incredible secondary resperatory system that allows it to fly like a jet. It's awfully fast.

Same external structure, but completely different flight mechanism? Obviously a copy. I'm checking to see if it's radio controlled. If not, I want to know who has the ability to manipulate genes like that, and if they can make me l33t.

d. Suppose a new species of bird is discovered. It looks completely similar to a pigeon on the outside, but it has an internal organ that looks like a second brain. It functions like a bilogical version of a computer, deciphering symbols, parsing equations, and it gives the birds the ability to instinctively solve partial differential equations. (When they see one, after a few minutes of thinking, they instinctively inscribe the answer on any available surface.)

What sort of PDE's? Linear? Homogeneous? Constant-coefficient? Quasilinear? If it can only solve already-known PDE's, I'm going to blame Harvard (and I'm going to want to do an X-ray on one myself, just to be sure it's not a computer in a bird shell. Even if it is, I'm going to be impressed.) If it's solving problems nobody knows how to solve, I'm going to suspect alien / God interference.

e. Suppose a new species of bird is discovered. It looks a lot like a pigeon, and its DNA is identical except in one tiny region. The small changes in that region result in the bird producing proteins that don't do anything, but are shaped like the word "HARVARD". (They aren't visible under a microscope, of course: the shape is determined using some high-powered math.)

Stanford has folding@home. Harvard has to catch up somehow...

f. Suppose an analysis of the bird in (d) shows that its DNA is almost identical to a pigeon's--a few slight mutations to pigeon DNA activate a sequence that codes for the new organ.

Strange mutation. So pigeon DNA is already very close to having a PDE solver programmed in? Now I'm going to wonder where normal pigeons come from. The new ones could've evolved from the old, but the old had to have been designed.

g. Suppose a new type of creatures is discovered. It looks utterly unlike any animal on earth--something like the evil offspring of a frog and a bat. It flies, swims, can cling effortlessly to the smoothest surface, responds instinctively to human thought, and can be trained to talk. When they are fully adult, they seem roughly as intelligent as an 8 year old human being.

Will it get offended if I call it a FRAT? What a strange creature... I have no idea where it came from. I'd need a LOT of research...

1. Scrabble tiles on the table. Suppose you see some scrabble tiles on the table at your house. You don't know anything about where they came from or how they got there. If you see the following, what do you infer about how they got there?



a. All the tiles are face down.

The kids were playing with them

b. The tiles are jumbled randomly, some face up, some face down. There are a couple hundred tiles altogether. Among the face-up tiles, you can make out the word "H E L M" in a jagged diagonal line, more or less in sequence.

The kids were playing with them

c. All of the tiles are face down except for 5 of them. Those 5 are aligned on a horizontal line, right next to each other, and spell out "HELLO".

The kids were playing with them

d. Suppose the situation in c, and in addition, you live alone, your house has been locked all night, and the table was bare when you went to bed.

Sleep walking or ghosts

e. Suppose the situation in c, and in addition, you personally dumped the tiles out of the bag onto the table seconds ago, and watched them land that way.

Lucky


2. Moon landings and asteroids

a. The first moon landing occured on July 20, 1969, in the evening. Suppose on the evening of July 20, 2005 (but not at the same time or anything), a largish meteorite impacts the moon and is observed from earth by interested astronomers.

Going thru the same group of asteroids

b. Suppose it impacts the moon on July 20, 2019 (exactly 50 years later), and it matches the time of the moon landing to the minute. Suppose also that it impacts fairly close to the original site--just a few miles away.

Going thru the same group of asteroids

c. Suppose it impacts the moon as in (b), and suppose furthermore that there was an ancient Islamic prophecy that said, "In the day that they first leave their homes and set foot in a foreign land, they will not know Me. But after a week of weeks and one more, a star will fall from the sky and then they will then know that there is no God but Allah."

Had good astronymors back then

d. Suppose that sometime in the coming year, a dozen or so largish asteroids (over the course of a day) impact the original moon-landing site and the chief research facilities for space exploration in the US (so, NASA takes heavy damage), Russia, China, and every other spacefaring nation. Suppose at the end of the day, nobody on earth is capable of launching anything sizeable into space for at least a year or two.

Joss




3. Origins. (Utterly biologically nonsensical, and to my knowledge unreal, situations. Tell me where you think the new species came from.)

a. Suppose a new species of bird is discovered, and scientists verify that its DNA is almost entirely similar to the pigeon's, with a few slight changes. The birds look slightly cuter than pigeons (slight change in the shape of the head and position of the eyes), but there isn't much difference beyond that.

New species are discovered regularly

b. Suppose a new species of bird is discovered. It's a lot like a pigeon, but it has tiny arm-like limbs.

A flightless bird....yippee


c. Suppose a new species of bird is discovered. It is a lot like a pigeon, but instead of flying by flapping, its wings are fairly rigid and it has an incredible secondary resperatory system that allows it to fly like a jet. It's awfully fast.

Cool, a faster way to send messages


d. Suppose a new species of bird is discovered. It looks completely similar to a pigeon on the outside, but it has an internal organ that looks like a second brain. It functions like a bilogical version of a computer, deciphering symbols, parsing equations, and it gives the birds the ability to instinctively solve partial differential equations. (When they see one, after a few minutes of thinking, they instinctively inscribe the answer on any available surface.)

Photochop


e. Suppose a new species of bird is discovered. It looks a lot like a pigeon, and its DNA is identical except in one tiny region. The small changes in that region result in the bird producing proteins that don't do anything, but are shaped like the word "HARVARD". (They aren't visible under a microscope, of course: the shape is determined using some high-powered math.)

Cool, I knew Harvard was special because Bush went there


f. Suppose an analysis of the bird in (d) shows that its DNA is almost identical to a pigeon's--a few slight mutations to pigeon DNA activate a sequence that codes for the new organ.

Mutant


g. Suppose a new type of creatures is discovered. It looks utterly unlike any animal on earth--something like the evil offspring of a frog and a bat. It flies, swims, can cling effortlessly to the smoothest surface, responds instinctively to human thought, and can be trained to talk. When they are fully adult, they seem roughly as intelligent as an 8 year old human being. [/quote]

On par with life down in hots zones on the ocean floor.

1. Scrabble tiles on the table. Suppose you see some scrabble tiles on the table at your house. You don't know anything about where they came from or how they got there. If you see the following, what do you infer about how they got there?



a. All the tiles are face down.
Somone wants to play...not the wife 'cause she usually beats me.

b. The tiles are jumbled randomly, some face up, some face down. There are a couple hundred tiles altogether. Among the face-up tiles, you can make out the word "H E L M" in a jagged diagonal line, more or less in sequence.

Random. Probably Kids.

c. All of the tiles are face down except for 5 of them. Those 5 are aligned on a horizontal line, right next to each other, and spell out "HELLO".

The wife saying hi!

d. Suppose the situation in c, and in addition, you live alone, your house has been locked all night, and the table was bare when you went to bed.

I'd check how much i'd drunk the night before....blackouts usally quash all supernatural phenomenon. Then id sh1t myself. Maybe i'd re-arrange a question and wait for the reply.

e. Suppose the situation in c, and in addition, you personally dumped the tiles out of the bag onto the table seconds ago, and watched them land that way.

Random. I'd sit up and take notice if it said "HI PAUL, I'M GOD ARN'T MAN UTD PLAYING WELL THIS SEASON"


2. Moon landings and asteroids

a. The first moon landing occured on July 20, 1969, in the evening. Suppose on the evening of July 20, 2005 (but not at the same time or anything), a largish meteorite impacts the moon and is observed from earth by interested astronomers.

Random event.

b. Suppose it impacts the moon on July 20, 2019 (exactly 50 years later), and it matches the time of the moon landing to the minute. Suppose also that it impacts fairly close to the original site--just a few miles away.

Random event.

c. Suppose it impacts the moon as in (b), and suppose furthermore that there was an ancient Islamic prophecy that said, "In the day that they first leave their homes and set foot in a foreign land, they will not know Me. But after a week of weeks and one more, a star will fall from the sky and then they will then know that there is no God but Allah."

Out of the millions of prophecies, eventually one will be fulfilled.

d. Suppose that sometime in the coming year, a dozen or so largish asteroids (over the course of a day) impact the original moon-landing site and the chief research facilities for space exploration in the US (so, NASA takes heavy damage), Russia, China, and every other spacefaring nation. Suppose at the end of the day, nobody on earth is capable of launching anything sizeable into space for at least a year or two.

That would be interesting if they are direct strikes. I guess we'd have to learn martian.




3. Origins. (Utterly biologically nonsensical, and to my knowledge unreal, situations. Tell me where you think the new species came from.)

a. Suppose a new species of bird is discovered, and scientists verify that its DNA is almost entirely similar to the pigeon's, with a few slight changes. The birds look slightly cuter than pigeons (slight change in the shape of the head and position of the eyes), but there isn't much difference beyond that.

New species are discovered all the time.

b. Suppose a new species of bird is discovered. It's a lot like a pigeon, but it has tiny arm-like limbs.

It's mom and dad flew over Chernoble??


c. Suppose a new species of bird is discovered. It is a lot like a pigeon, but instead of flying by flapping, its wings are fairly rigid and it has an incredible secondary resperatory system that allows it to fly like a jet. It's awfully fast.

Iranian WMD's ???


d. Suppose a new species of bird is discovered. It looks completely similar to a pigeon on the outside, but it has an internal organ that looks like a second brain. It functions like a bilogical version of a computer, deciphering symbols, parsing equations, and it gives the birds the ability to instinctively solve partial differential equations. (When they see one, after a few minutes of thinking, they instinctively inscribe the answer on any available surface.)

Animals are cleverer than we think.


e. Suppose a new species of bird is discovered. It looks a lot like a pigeon, and its DNA is identical except in one tiny region. The small changes in that region result in the bird producing proteins that don't do anything, but are shaped like the word "HARVARD". (They aren't visible under a microscope, of course: the shape is determined using some high-powered math.)

If anything it would say "Taiwan" cause everything is made there.


f. Suppose an analysis of the bird in (d) shows that its DNA is almost identical to a pigeon's--a few slight mutations to pigeon DNA activate a sequence that codes for the new organ.

Mutant....and chernoble again.


g. Suppose a new type of creatures is discovered. It looks utterly unlike any animal on earth--something like the evil offspring of a frog and a bat. It flies, swims, can cling effortlessly to the smoothest surface, responds instinctively to human thought, and can be trained to talk. When they are fully adult, they seem roughly as intelligent as an 8 year old human being. [/quote]

New creatures are being discovered every day...no big deal.

a. All the tiles are face down.

Someone put them that way.



b. The tiles are jumbled randomly, some face up, some face down. There are a couple hundred tiles altogether. Among the face-up tiles, you can make out the word "H E L M" in a jagged diagonal line, more or less in sequence.

Not even worth a second thought, the tiles were dumped on the table that way.


c. All of the tiles are face down except for 5 of them. Those 5 are aligned on a horizontal line, right next to each other, and spell out "HELLO".

Someone purposely set them that way...probably my ten year old daughter.



d. Suppose the situation in c, and in addition, you live alone, your house has been locked all night, and the table was bare when you went to bed.

Someone was in my house.



e. Suppose the situation in c, and in addition, you personally dumped the tiles out of the bag onto the table seconds ago, and watched them land that way.

An amazing coincidence then the thought creeps into my mind that someone/something is there and is trying to say hello, then I force myself to go with the amazing coincidence theory but never forget the possibility.




2. Moon landings and asteroids

a. The first moon landing occured on July 20, 1969, in the evening. Suppose on the evening of July 20, 2005 (but not at the same time or anything), a largish meteorite impacts the moon and is observed from earth by interested astronomers.

Coincidence.



b. Suppose it impacts the moon on July 20, 2019 (exactly 50 years later), and it matches the time of the moon landing to the minute. Suppose also that it impacts fairly close to the original site--just a few miles away.

Coincidence, slightly more interesting but still coincidence.



c. Suppose it impacts the moon as in (b), and suppose furthermore that there was an ancient Islamic prophecy that said, "In the day that they first leave their homes and set foot in a foreign land, they will not know Me. But after a week of weeks and one more, a star will fall from the sky and then they will then know that there is no God but Allah."

Doesn't mean a thing.



d. Suppose that sometime in the coming year, a dozen or so largish asteroids (over the course of a day) impact the original moon-landing site and the chief research facilities for space exploration in the US (so, NASA takes heavy damage), Russia, China, and every other spacefaring nation. Suppose at the end of the day, nobody on earth is capable of launching anything sizeable into space for at least a year or two.

Can't believe it was coincidence and the thought of it is scary as hell!






3. Origins. (Utterly biologically nonsensical, and to my knowledge unreal, situations. Tell me where you think the new species came from.)

a. Suppose a new species of bird is discovered, and scientists verify that its DNA is almost entirely similar to the pigeon's, with a few slight changes. The birds look slightly cuter than pigeons (slight change in the shape of the head and position of the eyes), but there isn't much difference beyond that.

Coincidence or someone has let their new breeding experiment escape.



b. Suppose a new species of bird is discovered. It's a lot like a pigeon, but it has tiny arm-like limbs.

Freak of nature?!?




c. Suppose a new species of bird is discovered. It is a lot like a pigeon, but instead of flying by flapping, its wings are fairly rigid and it has an incredible secondary resperatory system that allows it to fly like a jet. It's awfully fast.

CIA homing pigeon, they weren't supposed to let you see it now everyone who saw it must die!
Seriously, I'd consider it possible but wonder how it either escaped detection earlier or how it was capable of evolving at such an accelerated rate.



d. Suppose a new species of bird is discovered. It looks completely similar to a pigeon on the outside, but it has an internal organ that looks like a second brain. It functions like a bilogical version of a computer, deciphering symbols, parsing equations, and it gives the birds the ability to instinctively solve partial differential equations. (When they see one, after a few minutes of thinking, they instinctively inscribe the answer on any available surface.)

Alien bird visitor or escaped CIA spy-bird experiment.




e. Suppose a new species of bird is discovered. It looks a lot like a pigeon, and its DNA is identical except in one tiny region. The small changes in that region result in the bird producing proteins that don't do anything, but are shaped like the word "HARVARD". (They aren't visible under a microscope, of course: the shape is determined using some high-powered math.)

Harvard geeks prank.




f. Suppose an analysis of the bird in (d) shows that its DNA is almost identical to a pigeon's--a few slight mutations to pigeon DNA activate a sequence that codes for the new organ.

Harvard geeks prank methods uncovered. They are really wasting their potential up there!




g. Suppose a new type of creatures is discovered. It looks utterly unlike any animal on earth--something like the evil offspring of a frog and a bat. It flies, swims, can cling effortlessly to the smoothest surface, responds instinctively to human thought, and can be trained to talk. When they are fully adult, they seem roughly as intelligent as an 8 year old human being.

They're here! Probably the escaped pet of the invisible alien who re-arranged my Scrabble tiles into a greeting!
Unless there has been other reports of species evolving rapidly I'd lean toward alien life form.

Very interesting. Thanks, you guys. You're heavier skeptics than I realized.

One of the funny/remarkable things about such an exercise is how much already believing in something affects your conclusions. Already believing in other people makes you much friendlier to the idea that they're behind the scrabble tiles, even if you don't know who it is and can't see how they did it. It's interesting to see how people react relatively to Allah, Aliens, Unbelievably Advanced Genetic Engineers, etc.

Drakona wrote:Very interesting. Thanks, you guys. You're heavier skeptics than I realized.

Or just a big chicken
I've been told since childhood about God and his rules, on the other hand, if it's alien forces at work at least maybe they didn't build a hell for me so there's hope....